07/08/2015 Live Update

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:15 am

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In range bounded by upper and lower blue line, directly not clear.

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:18 am

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/07 ... ay-update/

Unique · Post by **Unique** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:21 am

Sorry off topic.
For what it's worth. Starting this month, I will be posting all of my ES trades on the two forums I visit near real time if possible/available.
The objective is to learn more and improve my profit factor this year mainly on ES. By posting it publicly, it's open to feedback/criticism so I could seek constant improvement.

I'm primarily a day trader and occasional swing trader. My bread and butter is trading weekly stock options and stock, so this is just a tiny side project for me.
Mainly, trade AMZN GOOGL NFLX TSLA. Used to trade AAPL religiously, but it can't make 10-50% easy gains intraday like before in options, so I don't play it anymore.

Current profit factor for trading ES (day trading + swing) is only 2.00. Obviously, this is educational purposes only and I do not recommend you copying my trades.
Just got back from Asia recently, so may be a few days until I can filter out the toxic air and post here

I only started tracking my ES trades more comprehensively recently.
Sample size for ES is 189 trades.
Win/loss ratio = 121/189 = 64.02%
Sample size is too small to have any significance. This is partly why I want to work on increasing profit factor this year trading ES as side project.

Posts would be in this format:

ES BUY FILL 2060, 2056 STOP, 2067 IMMEDIATE TARGET. LEG 2 TARGET = 2075.

Previous post example: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1723&p=195110&hilit=2060#p195110

P.S, don't worry I'll still post funny image like this if it's an easy money day/tight market to loosen up some tension
It was easy like taking candy from a baby

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:22 am

Still in an expanding wedge between support as per yesterday, 50w/200d.. and now upper resistance right here at the trends and a tad higher. Above the trends the 20w/20d convergence 2094/5 and 50d 2102. Came so close to a gap fill, but the 50w saved it. Still could chop around and wedge up, or wedge down and make lower lows and fill the lower gaps still. VIX is wedging/bull flagging if it holds in this range.

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:24 am

USD /OIL fwiw.. USD looks weak heading into FOMC + Oil reports..

gappy · Post by **gappy** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:29 am

Capture.PNG

Vote Cobra. glta

DellGriffith · Post by **DellGriffith** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:31 am

Unique wrote:Sorry off topic.
For what it's worth. Starting this month, I will be posting all of my ES trades

I only started tracking my ES trades more comprehensively recently.
Sample size for ES is 189 trades.
Win/loss ratio = 121/189 = 64.02%
Sample size is too small to have any significance. This is partly why I want to work on increasing profit factor this year trading ES as side project.

That's brave!

I've never posted or shown my system. My system's win/loss ratio is in the 90% range. Downside is that it doesn't trade much. So I dabble in other trades with varying success while I wait for signals from my main system. Like a laboratory looking for other things that are very strong. One thing I've noticed is that whenever I post an idea here that seems to be working, it IMMEDIATELY goes bad haha. Its like this place jinxes all my experiments, hence the bravery in posting it here.

tsf · Post by **tsf** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:35 am

Source: Benzinga.com

With recent economic data largely uninspiring, and now with Greece and China weighing on the markets, the possibility of a September rate hike has been somewhat diminished.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks at 2 p.m. on his outlook, followed by a speech Friday from Chairwoman Janet Yellen. Both these speeches may provide further clarity inside the viewpoints of the Federal Reserve.

John Briggs, head of strategy at RBS. doesn't think the Fed minutes should change the previous perception of the market, but does think that Yellen's talk on the economy Friday might be a market mover. Briggs is looking for the Fed minutes to reflect the neutral statement of the June meeting, saying, "I think it's going to sound like a watch and wait Fed."

RBS calculates the market is expecting the first full rate hike in January, and sees just a 22 percent chance of a rate increase in September.

Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/p ... z3fJ4gNWeh

Unique · Post by **Unique** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:37 am

DellGriffith wrote:
Unique wrote:Sorry off topic.
For what it's worth. Starting this month, I will be posting all of my ES trades

I only started tracking my ES trades more comprehensively recently.
Sample size for ES is 189 trades.
Win/loss ratio = 121/189 = 64.02%
Sample size is too small to have any significance. This is partly why I want to work on increasing profit factor this year trading ES as side project.
That's brave!

I've never posted or shown my system. My system's win/loss ratio is in the 90% range. Downside is that it doesn't trade much. So I dabble in other trades with varying success while I wait for signals from my main system. Like a laboratory looking for other things that are very strong. One thing I've noticed is that whenever I post an idea here that seems to be working, it IMMEDIATELY goes bad haha. Its like this place jinxes all my experiments, hence the bravery in posting it here.

Thanks. Forgot to note, the ES statistics may be skewed because I was scalping a lot in the earlier days when I started tracking ES trades more extensively,
now I try to focus on the Extreme Overbought/Oversold signal +price confirmation hourly trades. In contrast, my options trading has 5k + trades sample size. I'll take my ES data set with a grain of salt for now.

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:42 am

SPX.. mind the triangle on the VIX.. upside target.. 23.50-24.. if things get crazy.

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:48 am

SPX 1m.. sloppy minor H&S.. should we chop for a bit.. FOMC day.. so all three gaps upper and lower .. may get tagged

if things get really crazy

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:54 am

INDEX days.. still contained fwiw. but GLD creeping up

Unique · Post by **Unique** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:58 am

TSLA Update: Did everybody sell after I announced I sold swing longs? Down 8% from highs...damn missed some easy money

Waiting for the hourly bar to close, to see if deadcat bounce confirm local low is in or not.
Immediate target seems to be 252.02 and 50DMA = 250.83 if 255.34 doesn't hold.
Key time, since 255-255.5 is the hourly breakout throwback retest support...

Hopefully, it's not a 260 vs 255 stuck range consolidation day first...that's not easy money if so

Prev update: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1724&p=195192#p195192

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 9:59 am

Unique... talking biotech you were last night... fwiw.. $BTK weekly .. china copy cat

BIS may be worth watching

uempel · Post by **uempel** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:00 am

Rick Santelli: "Commodities are the Canary in the Coal Mine" ..

I'm no fan of his, but his statement is true to the bone. Most likely there is more to the Chinese slide than bullish excesses. Weakness in commodity prices and oil spells more than a slump in Chinese equity prices. Global Chinese economic engine might be slowing down.

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:01 am

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/07 ... ay-update/

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:04 am

AAPL... slow mo roll over... until it's not... 10 month SMA in the 120 range fwiw.

uempel · Post by **uempel** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:25 am

Bullish Percentages are weak, but they look better than yesterday. Most important: BPNYA is down 0.41%, BPCOMPQ too.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPFINA|B|0

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:28 am

/ES desperately trying to hold 200d (purple) daily ... mind 50w (yellow) weekly chart just below that..

fehro · Post by **fehro** » Wed Jul 08, 2015 10:35 am

/CL oil reports.. show 385K build

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