07/08/2015 Live Update

[Unique]

AAPL... slow mo roll over... until it's not... 10 month SMA in the 120 range fwiw.

Agree now, AAPL got the first try weekly 20ema sticksave but it failed to reach a new high/retest prior highs and then got rejected by bears.
Now it is below weekly 20ema, a weekly close below 121.63 would be very great to get swing bears interested.
However, monthly chart entering back to 8EMA BTFD zone

Prior discussion: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1706&p=194162&hilit=aapl#p194162

[fehro]

Internals ugly.. TRIN > 2.50

[Trades with cats]

China and commodities- A couple of years ago we learned from Goldman that copper anodes were being used as the base collateral in a London style re-hypothication scheme by trading companies. It was a way for them to illegally play currency markets. Same thing with rubber.

Last month China stopped filling strategic oil reserves and no one stopped pumping and amazingly oil has dropped. A year ago or more we read about iron ore pellets piled on the docks in huge mountains because the warehouses were full and at the same time steel production was dropping.

Now we learn that Joe Sixpack has borrowed money in the grey market then opened a brokerage account with 20% leverage. Joe's money went to IPO's and was then illegally moved off shore to buy a house in California or Vancouver. Before the stock market took off Joe's cousins were buying apartments that were never occupied because living in them would reduce the saleability.

Which of the above ends well? And who still believes in the superiority of central planning?

[fehro]

SPX .. hourly trying to hammer of sorts.. 5m to go.. or doji

[fehro]

SPY 15m... fwiw.. expanding triangles.. to drive everyone crazy.. bulls hoping for an invs H&S orange neckline.. still in a red down channel.

[fehro]

USD slipping... Yellen say rates will wait... USD "could" see a drop.. maybe a 50d/20d retest in the days ahead..

[Cobra]

the rebound may have small legs.

[Al_Dente]

10 day % performance shows folks were moving into the defensive sectors (dashed lines)

[DellGriffith]

China and commodities- A couple of years ago we learned from Goldman that copper anodes were being used as the base collateral in a London style re-hypothication scheme by trading companies. It was a way for them to illegally play currency markets. Same thing with rubber.

Last month China stopped filling strategic oil reserves and no one stopped pumping and amazingly oil has dropped. A year ago or more we read about iron ore pellets piled on the docks in huge mountains because the warehouses were full and at the same time steel production was dropping.

Now we learn that Joe Sixpack has borrowed money in the grey market then opened a brokerage account with 20% leverage. Joe's money went to IPO's and was then illegally moved off shore to buy a house in California or Vancouver. Before the stock market took off Joe's cousins were buying apartments that were never occupied because living in them would reduce the saleability.

Which of the above ends well? And who still believes in the superiority of central planning?

Hey if China's central planning economy fails, they can always start a turf war to maintain support of the public and prevent a revolt. Maybe a little war with Japan. Well, I don't see how they can do that without a staging base between China and Japan. They'd have to do something really crazy like.....I dunno...build an entire island in the middle of the sea and slap a refueling base on it to support the war.

[fehro]

USD/JPY under pressure USD a tad active with the VIX.. something brewing? besides FOMC?

[Unique]

TSLA Update: Did everybody sell after I announced I sold swing longs? Down 8% from highs...damn missed some easy money

Waiting for the hourly bar to close, to see if deadcat bounce confirm local low is in or not.
Immediate target seems to be 252.02 and 50DMA = 250.83 if 255.34 doesn't hold.
Key time, since 255-255.5 is the hourly breakout throwback retest support...

Hopefully, it's not a 260 vs 255 stuck range consolidation day first...that's not easy money if so

Prev update: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1724&p=195192#p195192

TSLA update:
Looks like no easy money today. In tight range 260-255

TSLA 30m + 1h engulfing bull bar.
Bull trade coming up? Market still in consolidation range so not high probability
Immediate target = 262. Leg 2 target = 267.88 gap fill
Need 260.81 buy stop trigger, 258 stop.


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ES tight consolidation day so far, no intraday high probability setups right now.

Probably better to enjoy the weather outside today
Can't complain though, market usually don't give three easy money days in a row. We already got two since Sunday night...

Good luck! Peace

[fehro]

USD/JPY daily

[Al_Dente]

BEAR
declining stocks = 2400 (4.6 x advancing stocks)
declining volume = 11 x advancing volume (that’s extreme)

[jway888]

TSLA Update: Did everybody sell after I announced I sold swing longs? Down 8% from highs...damn missed some easy money

Waiting for the hourly bar to close, to see if deadcat bounce confirm local low is in or not.
Immediate target seems to be 252.02 and 50DMA = 250.83 if 255.34 doesn't hold.
Key time, since 255-255.5 is the hourly breakout throwback retest support...

Hopefully, it's not a 260 vs 255 stuck range consolidation day first...that's not easy money if so

Prev update: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1724&p=195192#p195192

I did, was loaded with some small PUT options last Thursday and closed the position today after it bounced above 50% retracement intraday from 254ish.

[DellGriffith]

Despite the hysteria over current market conditions, SPY is merely 3.5% off the all-time highs and its taken several days to get there. In my book, things aren't even particularly oversold at this time.

In comparison, the correction in sept-oct 2014 was about 10%. That would be something like SPY 188.

[fehro]

NYSE Trading halted on the floor?

[Unique]

TSLA Update: Did everybody sell after I announced I sold swing longs? Down 8% from highs...damn missed some easy money

Waiting for the hourly bar to close, to see if deadcat bounce confirm local low is in or not.
Immediate target seems to be 252.02 and 50DMA = 250.83 if 255.34 doesn't hold.
Key time, since 255-255.5 is the hourly breakout throwback retest support...

Hopefully, it's not a 260 vs 255 stuck range consolidation day first...that's not easy money if so

Prev update: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1724&p=195192#p195192

I did, was loaded with some small PUT options last Thursday and closed the position today after it bounced above 50% retracement intraday from 254ish.

Woah. Well done! Very well executed on plan,entry,exit.
Laters

[Cobra]

just a guess, double bottom may have chances.

[fehro]

SPX.. VIX pushing into resistance

[Unique]

Unique... talking biotech you were last night... fwiw.. $BTK weekly .. china copy cat BIS may be worth watching

Thx rockstar just saw this now. Very tempting swing R/R coming up on that chart.
Need to see some good bear momentum continuation cuz I usually prefer to short things that are already dying/dead prior to breakdown trigger, all trapped longs gonna get stopped easier for lower lows
eg. dead stocks like BIDU