04/06/2013 Weekend Update

[Unique]

AAPL, GOOG, GS and GOLD Update

[gappy]

oco.png

If oil's of all kinds can go down some more next week then maybe we'll get a little markets' dip to buy.

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From http://macromon.wordpress.com/ GLTA next week. Go Badgers, er I mean Wolverines! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMtcqfQNd2Y

[uempel]

I posted this chart sometime last week - and I still like it. Nothing to add. Have a great Sunday

PS: Have a look at this video, which shows how algos can control small drones. It's quite remarkable and worth watching to the very end. I imagine that the robots of the Big Boyz are running on software, which is just as sophisticated as what we see here. This does not boost small trader's confidence

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4IJXAVXgIo

[KeiZai]

Paging KeiZai: What are your thoughts on Coffee? On Monthly ChiOsc and MACD lowest in 20 years. Positive D on weekly. Break up, out of this wedge or one more drop? We'll see

Hi Clark, nice work mate! yes we are close to some kind of bottom I am thinking about wedge too but with the commodities (in big pic) it's a "little" tricky. I have read dozens of researches and spent hundreds of hours analyzing the comm charts and I have come to conclusion that no one know what's really going on in this sector. Here are some my infos I put together :

No doubts that commodities are trading in the final stages of bull cycle. They usually end with explosive move (which have been accompanied with secular bottoms in equities) the question is have we seen this already? I don't think so, my guess is we are missing one deflationary wave in comms (c-wave) and then we could still see final overshooting spike in next years/months as we are only at the lowest range of secular bull cycle(12y). I think currently we are working on connector(b-wave) between two deflationary waves (a-c).

This is my prefered chart for CCI, I am expecting some kind of strength - similar to june 2012

Maybe this structure is finally done and CRB could outperform SPX in next weeks/months (?money out of stocks → commodities? yes it's possible)

Here is BP of CRB, stopped at equal legs but final push up (3rd) still possible

comm-CRB2.png (94.43 KiB) Viewed 4725 times

Previous cycle looks very similar to current one (imo) - abc after 12years with another high after that? WWS

According to K-waves, B and C waves before ultimate spike and bust are possible

Copper is the first deflationary warning sign

And finally the mother of risk assets...not if but when....

Oh I totally forgot about coffee

Short term corrective up&down, I expected 5waves but it didn't happen viewtopic.php?f=2&t=859&p=123007#p123007 so I am leaning toward some kind of wedge pattern.

Note: I just noticed there is not 2x bottom it's a P-bar

Big picture as I said tricky, after breakout and wave structure it will be clearer, until then I am watching these two possible bounce targets

[gappy]

Please keep us posted Mr. Keizai, cause alot of us would rather trade a commodity vs forked tongue big business. The old 10-25 cross at zero, rising or flat, tells little toward short term swings. Better to pay attention to the EW structure clues you provide and Maestro Cobra's calculated intuition.

crb.png

$W1ENE being World Oil ana Gas Index, the big kahuna.

CRUDEOIL.gif

The droopy 10 day moving momentum average closing in on the flat 25. http://www.crbtrader.com/crbindex/data.asp The problem with the Aussie's is an overdependance on China/Pacific Rim, their problem, a dependance on Europe. http://soberlook.com/2013/03/key-risks- ... =BP_recent So good luck sir, let us know where to send you the Bamboo shoots.

[BullBear52x]

Another great weekend posts, thanks everyone. I think SLV is heading for a 3rd time cliff.new basing construction will take some times since it blew the last one.

[BullBear52x]

USO magic 31 line still in play. just for fun.

[BullBear52x]

$CCI is ready for oversold bounce, but histogram say not yet.

[BullBear52x]

Bottom fishing special, CLF is still searching for the bottom, need to break up over 20

[BullBear52x]

lastly, the king green back is not looking so healthy any more.

[KeiZai]

Please keep us posted Mr. Keizai, cause alot of us would rather trade a commodity vs forked tongue big business. The old 10-25 cross at zero, rising or flat, tells little toward short term swings. Better to pay attention to the EW structure clues you provide and Maestro Cobra's calculated intuition.

crb.png

$W1ENE being World Oil ana Gas Index, the big kahuna.

CRUDEOIL.gif

The droopy 10 day moving momentum average closing in on the flat 25. http://www.crbtrader.com/crbindex/data.asp The problem with the Aussie's is an overdependance on China/Pacific Rim, their problem, a dependance on Europe. http://soberlook.com/2013/03/key-risks- ... =BP_recent So good luck sir, let us know where to send you the Bamboo shoots.

Haha okey BOSS here bamboo music 4ya : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2qQzDsny7k

[KeiZai]

Another great weekend posts, thanks everyone. I think SLV is heading for a 3rd time cliff.new basing construction will take some times since it blew the last one.

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Yeah boss looks like I will have to take my MT bullish glasses off

Silver's bro aka copper not makes me happy...if I read the picture in copper right then this is the silver chart

although DOWGOLD chart looks more like contratrend abc (@big resi atm)

chart by Michael J

[gappy]

Haha okey BOSS here bamboo music 4ya : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2qQzDsny7k[/quote]
Ya Ya! Good music for the crew.

ps.jpg

[KeiZai]

USO magic 31 line still in play. just for fun.

I am watching another hard asset triangle there f* they are everywhere I look

O: e wave went little bit further than I initially expected viewtopic.php?f=2&t=855&p=122700#p122700

Decline looks impulsive (wave 1 of the show?)

[gappy]

(Silver's bro aka copper not makes me happy...if I read the picture in copper right then this is the silver chart....Mr. KeiZai said.) I recall hearing, but don't remember where, so this is hearsay, but just to watch out for, that alot of new copper production is coming on line the next couple years and that will keep the price depressed til 2017. We will see.

[KeiZai]

(Silver's bro aka copper not makes me happy...if I read the picture in copper right then this is the silver chart....Mr. KeiZai said.) I recall hearing, but don't remember where, so this is hearsay, but just to watch out for, that alot of new copper production is coming on line the next couple years and that will keep the price depressed til 2017. We will see.

Thanks gappy! will try to find something about it

[BullBear52x]

USO magic 31 line still in play. just for fun.

I am watching another hard asset triangle there f* they are everywhere I look

O: e wave went little bit further than I initially expected viewtopic.php?f=2&t=855&p=122700#p122700

Decline looks impulsive (wave 1 of the show?)

crude-april.png

yes, they are everywhere.

[Al_Dente]

GDX weekly
I am expecting a bounce to re-test the H&S neckline

“Gold needs to put in a weekly close above this week's high of $1604 to create a preliminary reversal signal.
The real reversal signal occurs at $1620, however.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1324501 ... le_focus_0

thanks to ALL for GREAT charts this wknd
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPCjIGyrtYc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deLqzQLuGOU

[TWT]

I MAINTAIN UNCHANGED THE CALL OF A TEMPORARY TOP

Therefore my strategy is to sell the rip.

My road map can be seen in the SPX daily chart below:

The main themes are:

1. The rally from the November lows has unfolded a corrective pattern = Triple Zig Zag ===> Therefore we don´t have yet the top of the wave (X) from the 2009 lows.
2. Neither we do have yet the absolute confirmation that price has began a corrective phase until bears achieve to break through the support layer located in the range 1538-1531
3. Once the support layer 1538-1531 is breached I expect that this pullback will find a bottom in the range 1485-1431

Friday´s reaction to a poor NFP (Investors are judging that bad economic numbers will maintain Quantitative Easing into infinity) has left in the chart a bullish Hammer which is suggesting follow through to the upside at least for next Monday.

I don’t know how long the bounce will last (Attempt of the bulls to kill the bearish set up). If it is chop up and down (But below 1564) during next week then price could be forming the right shoulder of a H&S that has a target at 1505, otherwise if it is just 1-2 days rebound what really matters is a lower high.

If the bearish set up pans out, remember the oversold McClellan Oscillator, if the assumed pending down leg is impulsive it could stop either at the 0.618 retracement (1519) or at 1505 (If the H&S pans out) from where I expect a large bulls’ countertrend attack

Regarding the short-term price action, in my opinion, SPX from last week top has unfolded a Double Zig Zag wave (A) therefore the initial pattern of the expected larger correction should be a Zig Zag down.

The expected wave (B) rebound in progress can also unfold a Zig Zag since I doubt that at Friday´s hod the countertrend bounce has topped, hence the potential target should be located in the 1561 +/- area. Bulls will probably try to form an inverted H&S with the neckline at 1561.78 (Eventually it should result in a bull´s trap)

Regarding the long-term count, since in my opinion the up leg from the November lows is corrective, price should complete the wave (X) from the 2009 lows with an Ending Diagonal

(More analysis in the weekly post in my web site)

[Al_Dente]

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