04/06/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Begin with Algo from stocktiming. No divergence as NYA didn't make new high but SPX did, so I count the divergence as fulfilled, so it's time for pullback. The chart is not oversold yet, so could be more pullback ahead.

[Cobra]

institutional buying and selling action from stocktiming shows now distribution is larger than accumulation the 3rd time since Dec 2012. I believe this time the pullback would be larger than the previous 2. This is my theory: buying keeps decreasing while selling keeps increasing. Simply supply and demand, demand inevitably becomes weakened via time elapses.

[Cobra]

Smart money heavily short. It's the 2nd record short.

[Cobra]

II and AAII. I still think II is not extreme enough. Still II is very high.

[Cobra]

The summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=873&p=125634#p125634

[Cobra]

stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=880&p=125636#p125636

[johnnywa]

With Europe down smartly last two days and U.S. down Friday,We could green Monday &Tuesday before a rip down to break 1537

[johnnywa]

With Europe down smartly last two days and U.S. down Friday,We could green Monday &Tuesday before a rip down to break 1537

[kenttown]

Smart money heavily short. It's the 2nd record short.

Only matter of time before they pull the rug.

[ocassional observer]

cobra, can you please post the csfb chart? thanks in advance.

[Cobra]

cobra, can you please post the csfb chart? thanks in advance.

You mean this? I don't see CSFB as a valid ticker.

[Al_Dente]

Sector view:
Aggressive (risk-on) sectors on top, defensive (risk-off) sectors on bottom

Exact same thing using RELATIVE STRENGTH ratios
Shows the defensive (risk-off) sectors stronger

[ocassional observer]

cobra, can you please post the csfb chart? thanks in advance.

You mean this? I don't see CSFB as a valid ticker.

sorry, i meant the Credit Suisse Fear Barometer.

[ClarkW]

$BKX not able to overcome the 38% fib level on weekly.
Purple channel holding for now on daily. Small bounce then drop? Hell if I know...time will tell

No positions, zero recommendations

[gasprice]

II and AAII. I still think II is not extreme enough. Still II is very high.

Surveys are not accurate measures of sentiment. People can say they are bullish but be positioned otherwise in their own portfolios. This is an important distinction and why I only use the ISE call/put buying levels to ACCURATELY measure sentiment.

Want proof?

Listen carefully to this video of Mark Mobius. He spends the majority of the video talking about how bullish the markets are, yet towards the end, admits that he (who is a major bull) is only 65% invested in stocks right now. So, this is a perfect example of someone who would say they're bullish on a survey but not be positioned in a way that is similar to what they're saying about the markets. He put money to work on Friday, and he's rich. Did you? Now we can see why the market rose Friday. Small traders are shorting and big money is buying.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mobius-tr ... 37507.html

Take a look at CPCE. I don't like to use this because it isn't as accurate as ISE, but it still shows the picture. Call buying has not seen a very extreme level SINCE 2010. In those two years, the market has perpetually risen. Imagine that. The market is surging but no one wants to buy calls. This is the sweet spot for a bull market, which will indeed continue much higher, because no one is turning bullish in the face of rising prices.

[Al_Dente]

WHALE WATCH
Einhorn stock picks, long and short, 3/28/13
http://blog.portfolioswithpurpose.org/b ... n-our-town

[Al_Dente]

bond ratios

[Al_Dente]

NYMO short-term buy, middle panel
Medium-term, still on sell signal, bottom panel

[KeiZai]

US market is still tough one...truly unbelievable market

Dow: Damn it looked so good that 5th wave is gonna end in ED (http://oi45.tinypic.com/2mrcl1k.jpg), but overlap have likely changed it so I think we are missing *one* more high

So till then I will focus on the weaker one

Watching GS if the decline was corrective (so far it looks like) or not

[ClarkW]

Paging KeiZai: What are your thoughts on Coffee? On Monthly ChiOsc and MACD lowest in 20 years. Positive D on weekly. Break up, out of this wedge or one more drop? We'll see