09/05/2013 Live Update

[Cobra]

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I see nothing wrong on the Global ES, just bulls must not allow a drop below the blue horizontal line. Let's see.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/09 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX 5m, 15m possible bearish rising wedge

[gappy]

Hightower morning blurb. GLTA.

Capture.PNG

[fehro]

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_o ... edule.html

[fehro]

SPX 15m close-up... Gap filled

[Cobra]

volume surge, largest bar, so might see a pullback here first.

[Al_Dente]

Initial jobless claims were green
323k vs estimate of 330k

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index due at 10:00 ET
Estimate 55.0

[uempel]

Checking in on the 5 min:

[fehro]

SPX 20d SMA 1659.06 tagged it.. SPX 50d SMA 1664.54

[rhight]

Good morning Cobra and the rest of you folks,
In the intermediate time frame, the question is, is this a reversal or a continuation pattern?
I went back through my saved charts to find some prior continuation patterns, and came up with two fairly recent examples. Both patterns broke down on the 10th day, remarkably. In the first example (5-18 to 5-31-12) there is a clear ABC with the C having a clear ending diagonal. Note that USD increased across the formation, and the 20DMA acted as resistance. The top of the formation stopped short of a 38.2% retrace from the April 2012 high (not shown).

In the second example, from 10-23 to 11-6-12, price made a 50% retrace, but also found resistance at the 20DMA. Note also that the USD was rising across the formation.

So, what is it today?

[uempel]

Signal now:

[rhight]

Today's chart to compare to those above. Note that the USD is rising across the formation. This is not to bias your thinking in any way, just something to be aware of. Personally, even though I should be going long here (int. term), sometimes my system misfires during consolidations and it ends up being a bull trap. I will probably scale into a long on weakness, and keep a fairly tight stop.
(130MA on 60min ~= 20DMA)

[Out of Bounds]

$TRIN at low of day: .53

[Mr. BachNut]

Short. No change.

My summation index signal went to up for the SPX this morning. It remains neutral for the R2K.
My composite trend signal is down.

There remains a double bottom target for the SPX around ES 1664.50 (about SPY 167).
There is declining tops resistance arriving in the same neighborhood.
If the downtrend remains intact, that should be about it.
If not, my position will be stopped out.
As I now have a change in summation signal, I want to see how today closes but will be looking to honor that too. (groans)

[Cobra]

double top.

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:37 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/09 ... ay-update/

[gappy]

From the rabbit hole.

biiwii.png

The upturn in gold vs. commodities at a ‘higher low’ is not good news for a continuing economic upturn. NFTRH has often stated that if this ratio makes a lower low then the analysis would be proven wrong (it happens) and that I have no personal agenda other than to do what big picture macro charts like the above tell me to do.

The chart above tells me that gold has just turned up vs. commodities (signifying an end-stage up cycle) even as the Federal Reserve appears to have spent the majority of its bullets fighting the contraction. That bullet expenditure comes in the form of rising yields as America’s main creditors appear to be rebelling against (or capitalizing upon) policy designed to keep yields low by selling Treasury bonds. Hmmmm.

Markets tend to turn when things look rosiest and legions of trend followers are touting. We continue to hold open the prospect of a final strong rally in the stock market if the S&P 500 gets down to the mid-1500′s in the near term. But on a bigger picture, the gold vs. commodities says another contraction is coming.

[Cobra]

H2 long. not sure. I'd prefer h3 even h4. also today could be a range day.

[rhight]

(groans)

No one said this was going to be easy. (I'm talking to myself). I think I'll go ride my bicycle and stay neutral for the moment. The 60 min & 15 min cycles may be teaming up for a down turn here.