01/25/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Nothing special, so just a new thread so that everyone can have somewhere to chat in the weekend.

I think by the Monday, the institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy from stocktiming) should show more distribution than accumulation. The chart doesn't tell future only confirms what happens now.

Smart money not covered huge yet, so guess the low wasn't in yet.

I see nothing on AAII.

[DellGriffith]

Gold still looks weak to me after today. Gold price didn't move much. Gold miners fell. HUI fell.

A lot of people assume when equities fall, gold rises. Its not always the case. During market crashes everything gets sold off and both gold and equities drop. The fact that the gold complex sold off today is evidence this is could actually be a crash in the works.

[Cobra]

Summary of the last week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1185&p=152901#p152901

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1191&p=152904#p152904

[gappy]

Australian dollars are an extremely good indicator for price trend on the gold market and vice versa. Japanese yen futures tend to have a positive relationship with respect to gold prices because both these asset classes are used as hedging tool to reduce portfolio risk. For short term trending, not scalps or day trade.

goldaussie.PNG

goldyen.PNG

[Al_Dente]

Succinct Summation of the week ending January 24
Positives:
1. Average gas price in 2013 was a 3-year low.
2. Initial jobless claims come in 4k lower than expected.
3. Existing home sales (December) rose for the first time in 3 months, making 2013’s total the highest in 7 years.
4. IMF boosts global growth forecasts, showing how shallow positive news was this week.
5. Bad news seems to be bad news again, and good news is good news. Surely this is positive news.
6. AAII Bulls down to a 2-month low (excessive bullishness is not healthy).
7. MBA said refi’s jumped 9.9%
8. China’s economy grows 7.7% in Q4

Negatives:
1. For the first time in 3 months the S&P 500 and Dow both close below their 50-day moving averages.
2. HSBC’s China Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.6 (contraction) which is its lowest reading since July, this sent S&P futures deep into the red and triggered the 2 day sell-off.
3. US Existing Home Sales in December totaled 4.87mm annualized, 60k less than expected.
4. It looks like January will be the first red month since August.
5. Argentina’s peso suffered its worst day in 12 years, emerging markets got smacked.
6. 1st time home buyers total just 27% of purchases, the lowest on the record books of the NAR.

[Courtesy Barry Ritholtz]

[DellGriffith]

I took a look at gold vs yen circa 2008.



It appears that while the market was in a correction mode, there was a good positive correlation. When it went from correction to crash mode in september 2008, it flipped to a negative correlation. As the panic subsided in november 2008, the positive correlation returned.

It actually looks to me like both correlation flips preceded the actual crash (and the end of the crash) by a week or two. Perhaps an early warning signal?

Thanks gappy for the charts again!

[tsf]

Last year, a senior boardie mentioned this swing trading blog on Tumblr:
http://swingtrader.tumblr.com/
Apparently, the blogger's demand/supply buy/sell rules have now been triggered.

This is FYI and for your comments only, especially for the boardie who first posted the link.
I don't have any first hand experience with the success of the rule or the trigger.

Good luck.

[Al_Dente]

This is a SPY dome (pink), albeit a sloppy one. The dome-base target is $176.50 SPY which happens to be from 18 Dec, the FOMC taper day.
Friday’s trend channel (black lines) is unsustainably steep and the angle will need to fan out a bit, either by going sideways or up or both.
The bears may allow a bounce up to the declining MAs before covering, to perhaps the 181 zone [guessing]. A more robust bounce runs the risk of a pile-on, if the bears race to cover their shorts en-masse, booking profits and causing a squeeze.

Volume and AD ratios hit extremes, and SPY does need an oversold bounce.
But this indicator has a healthy failure rate. All it takes is for the weekend news to sensationalize the -579 point weekly drop in the Dow, and the fear and selling pressure could continue on Monday, delaying the inevitable bounce, which could come from a lower level than expected.

Technical Alerts

[DellGriffith]

Al dente said:

But this indicator has a healthy failure rate. All it takes is for the weekend news to sensationalize the -579 point weekly drop in the Dow, and the fear and selling pressure could continue on Monday, delaying the inevitable bounce, which could come from a lower level than expected.

That's the thing. I think overall, this is a bull market and going long SPY on friday should pay off...eventually. But this is also a strong immediate drop and that payoff could be 4 months away and after SPY drops a lot more.

Oscillators I think work better when bollinger bands are NOT coming off extreme tight levels like we are now...

[haytch]

[BullBear52x]

bat @ 1770 S+P.png

M= Murder

[BullBear52x]

From it is what it is department:
Weekly = confirmed bearish trend.

Support and resistance lines.

new Line in the sand = 180.91

Where are we? sell the rip for trend follower.

[BullBear52x]

5o DMA is now a resistance.

more than half of a major indexes are now trade under 50 DMA.

[BullBear52x]

I see few of us mentioning GLD adn GDX, my take = buy the dip until it fails, so far so good 20/50 ma is now a support.

[BullBear52x]

UNG = Buy the dip.

USO = Buy the dip

[daytradingES]

I posted a reply in the investors lounge , Gann techniques section.
I think we may have a long term top in place.

For myself the question is whether this will change the daily bias for intraday direction, that is the order of HOD and LOD.
So if it changes the percentage of HOD first to > 66% and there are conditions I can identify which indicate when LOD will be first, then I may be able to improve my odds of capturing the first end of the day either HOD or LOD.

It will be something for myself to think about over the weekend and next week.
I don't have intraday data in my spreadsheets for before March 2009 so I'll have to think of someway to review 2007 to 2009 period.

[daytradingES]

bat @ 1770 S+P.png

how do you draw the second wing of your butterfly - that is select the points? Thanks in advance

[xfradnex]

Support-bounce

[DellGriffith]

I posted a reply in the investors lounge , Gann techniques section.
I think we may have a long term top in place.

That would be a first in maybe 100 years. A long term top without an inverted yield curve, much less a recession. Not saying its impossible. I think I'd have to see it happen before I believe it is possible though.