04/18/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

I see nothing interesting from my routine weekend update, so it's just a new thread for those who'd like to spend the weekend here.


The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more accumulation than distribution now.

Shortened week, so no new smart money chart until next week.


I see nothing on AAII and II. I'd like to see extremely extreme, for now both are far from extreme.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1269&p=160531#p160531

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1276&p=160536#p160536

[nysefloortrader]

what we have to tell you is, the lots of average newbie traders are looking for more down, or a 1987 style crash in 2014. What I can tell you is that using simple charts like BULL / BEAR ratios on the market can put you in the right mentality pretty fast. This chart been working for years, and timing is impecible. Not perfect, but it is good.

The bull / bear chart below is basically saying look for 1900 - 1950 this year. yes! No joke, it sounds rediculous, but it is what it is!!! I do not know when, but it looks like it is coming. Monthly charts confirm this also. Alot of bears are saying ITS ABOUT TO CRASH adn they are putting their balls to the wall and swearing on their grandpa's grave a big ones coming, but that is why we keep going higher, smart money is getting dumb money short, and then smart money comes in swoops the stops and up we go!! Its how they will most likely play it in 2014.

Cool chart I thought, and markets will give us many new things to trade next week.

At the moment is obvious not to listen to bears the chart is telling us, if we cross below, we could see some selling, but right now we are in an accelerated bull market! While these are tougher to trade (lots of whips up and down) the generate consensus is the fact to BUY DIPS, or bigger dips when they come not SELL RIPS and wait for the crash! 1900 - 1950 coming peepz just a matter of time I think.

[nysefloortrader]

The general consensus = DO NOT FIGHT THE FED!

more bullchit from YELLEN, for now, but she slipped the tounge. As soon as QE, TAPERING is done, and interest rates start coming in, the market is in serious trouble, and you see a cross in this bull / bear market lines to the downside.

For now the FED will keep pumping, pushing us up higher and higher. Again the bull / bear ratios are confirming this.

Come 2015 / 16 it will be a whole different kettle of fish. We are hearing rumors of something happening, and the market coming into serious turmoil. Just like 2008.....ahh.....anyone remember that one! LOL

- RIGHT NOW THE MARKET CRASHES EVERY 7 or so YEARS! Put that on in your diary and work out when the next one is due!!! YES!!! ->

[tsf]

The Yardeni Research bulletins of April 13 and Apr 17, 2014 showed charts of Bull Bear ratios over 3, possibly coinciding with market tops in the past.
http://www.yardeni.com/pub/peacockbullbear.pdf
http://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmktbullbear.pdf

[daytradingES]

[jungle trunks]

XRT doesn't have the same momentum in this rebound as the SPY, it looks like there may be another leg down at least with it, if so will SPY follow?

[Al_Dente]

Jeff Bezos’s Letter to Shareholders
Some interesting stuff here, like Bezos loading a test airplane with 150 active Kindles to show that there were no electronic problems.
The FAA approved the use of electronic devices during takeoff and landing.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... dex991.htm

AMZN smartphone is coming maybe
http://bgr.com/2014/04/15/amazon-smartp ... exclusive/

[Al_Dente]

Happy Easter to All People on Planet Snake

Stockcharts folks get to vote for The Snake today and Saturday and Sunday !!
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[Cobra]

Happy Easter to All People on Planet Snake

Stockcharts folks get to vote for The Snake today and Saturday and Sunday !!
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

easter snake_png.png

Thank you. Have a nice weekend!

[jungle trunks]

Just thinking out loud contemplating the most recent bounce. It seems like the momentum behind the current indexes rebound can be attributed to some of the high flyer names going through dead cat bounces, some of these stocks have lost 20% or more within the legs of the overall correction and have added extra momentum on the rebound with short covering, you don't see this strong of a bounce in certain etfs like XRT. If so then those stocks bounce may be over soon as they come back down to earth. I'm not sure where all the money coming out is rotating to

[Al_Dente]

PAGING FLUMANCHU:
Just a random thought:
The week of April 7- 11 the Dow was down -385 points on the week.
So, however you want to calculate that, that was 385 points of selling and then … what do they do with the selling proceeds? Let’s ignore for the moment the fact that folks put the sale proceeds into various bills/notes/bonds as a parking place.
Then last week, April 14-17 the dow was up +381 points on the week.
So on April 16-17, when folks identified that they were in a bear trap, they flooded into the Dow USING THE SALE PROCEEDS FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK to buy stocks.
My point is that regardless of the waning of POMO funds, there was plenty of money sloshing around, available to buy stocks… for lack of a better term let’s call it “organic funds.”
To clarify: one week they sold off -385 points, the next week they bought +381 points with the proceeds, none of which involved POMO.
Your comments are appreciated. Even if you trash this idea, it’s fine with me, as I’m just trying to reconcile the depleted POMO info with the crazy market reality.

[fehro]

Cool chart I thought, and markets will give us many new things to trade next week.

Lets take a little rough closer look ... yes timing is not perfect.. .but lets assume you bought and sold on the 13/34 cross over. The cross over is usually confirmed the following week by the candle so this is very, very rough approximation... closer view below to help you determine what you may think is a good entry or exit. The blue down arrows show how much of a move there is from the top till a cross. So.. based on this lets say a top is in.. question is depending on the cross.. effects your gains, and your entry for the next move! (and if there's vicious move like the 2009 bottom -red arrow for a deep deep cross) Yeah chart looks cool... but is it practical? Keep the gains/loss are rough guess, as I did not want to zoom in close for every one.. so as always take it with a grain of salt. More interesting is the divergence. RSI & MacD, again not perfect.. but a good warning system to keep you on your toes.

[jademann]

I was reading the last couple of posts and some of the charts are extremely good but the one thing missing is:

"I think monday will be up, down or flat, followed by Tuesday will be up, down or flat... Followed by next week will be up, down or flat".

Such a simple bold statement would surely separate the top traders (lowest number of wrong calls) from the mediocre traders and it would be much quicker than reading charts and pages of thoughts which are sometimes ambiguous, although not as much fun.

For example, I very much like how Mr Bachnut states Short or Long and sometimes partial short right at the start.

Over the long weekend, I own a half measure of UVXY which I will keep for hours to 2 days after such a large rally.


PS Happy Easter All! - even though I am still in work - it is beyond my comprehension that the US is so stingy with holidays, especially with so many unemployed.
Dont they know that tired workers are not as productive, or is that too complicated for the robber barons in charge?

[gappy]

Hoppy Easter Sunday y'all. The trend is up until Uncle Petrobuck takes the big dirt nap. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has designated the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to execute open market transactions on behalf of the entire Federal Reserve System. The resulting investments are held in the SOMA portfolio. Interest on the portfolio provides virtually all of the Fed's income; nevertheless, the central bank buys and sells securities purely to implement monetary policy and not for profit.

Capture.PNG

Here you go Flumanchu, you can track the week by week haul for the Fed bandits. http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma/ ... dings.html

[flumanchu]

PAGING FLUMANCHU:
Just a random thought:
The week of April 7- 11 the Dow was down -385 points on the week.
So, however you want to calculate that, that was 385 points of selling and then … what do they do with the selling proceeds? Let’s ignore for the moment the fact that folks put the sale proceeds into various bills/notes/bonds as a parking place.
Then last week, April 14-17 the dow was up +381 points on the week.
So on April 16-17, when folks identified that they were in a bear trap, they flooded into the Dow USING THE SALE PROCEEDS FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK to buy stocks.
My point is that regardless of the waning of POMO funds, there was plenty of money sloshing around, available to buy stocks… for lack of a better term let’s call it “organic funds.”
To clarify: one week they sold off -385 points, the next week they bought +381 points with the proceeds, none of which involved POMO.
Your comments are appreciated. Even if you trash this idea, it’s fine with me, as I’m just trying to reconcile the depleted POMO info with the crazy market reality.

418spy trap_png.png

In the example above, I think the POMO was deployed at strategic points during the week, not denied for the entire week, and then deployed for an entire week.
However, from a POMO perspective, I'm still pondering - either 1) something is wrong with my calcs and they haven't used as much as I thought, 2) the market is going to begin dropping Bigtime early next week thru the end of the month, 3) ECB QE comes in to save the day for the Fed. We'll see...

I am going to say something that many might take as Heresy, but here it goes...

I think there's actually 2 seperate markets -
1) the Indexes (controlled mainly by the Fed)
2) the Market of Stocks (GM, GOOG, etc)
The Indexes can influence the Market of Stocks (reconciled after the fact), but for the most part, I don't think Stocks really influence the Indexes. In my view, the Indexes are influenced by the Fed say 80% (just a guess), and the other 20% comes from everywhere else. Sometimes, that 20% overwhelms the Fed - just not enough to stop the train, so they let it take it's course for awhile, until they can deploy some means which will require the bears to cover.

So, what is seen in the Indexes is really the Fed (Big Banks) controlling matters (especially since 2009 with POMO), not necessarily profit taking or people going long in the market.

Now, individual stocks, that's a completely different matter, but there's all kinds of manipulation there with the MM's. Granted the whole system is basically rigged and we can complain about it, etc. blah, blah, blah - does no good, instead we just embrace it, knowing we have the smartest people in the world taking care of our country. So, knowing that, how do we use that knowledge to our advantage?

Don't fight the Fed.

.

[fehro]

NDX, COMPQ.. rotation out of growth into safer larger cap/dividend plays? breakdown into breakout stocks?

[fehro]

http://streettalklive.com/analysis/dail ... ml?id=2173 ... fwiw.

Still more room for the upside.. depending on how you want to read the first chart..

[fehro]

Last 3 weeks... http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?%5BSECT%5D feel free to play..