05/21/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

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I'm neutral, don't know what pattern it is. I don't read it as H&S Top.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/05 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX 15m mind the Pink channel, green dashed (bearish rising wedge 60m) and a flurry of FOMC talkers today.... 10:00am, 11:30am-(Yellen), 1:30pm, FOMC minutes 2:00pm,Ready for the roller-coaster? mind all trend lines heading into the minutes. Fwiw.
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

[gappy]

Vote Cobra. glta

Capture.PNG

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. retesting bear flag of sorts.. almost at pink channel..

[Cobra]

members only update at 9:40 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/05 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX messy 5m. fwiw. some resistance here. mind the morning gap.. and the gaps above

[fehro]

VIX 15m.. took out the May 12 lows..

[Out of Bounds]

Strong bull. wow.
Gap closed from yesterday morning though i doubt it matters.

[uempel]

Checking the 1:20 - 2:00 p.m. area on the X-axis.

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:01 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/05 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. pausing here.. filled one gap.. still a tad short of the *pink channel on the SPX 15m

[Mr. BachNut]

Partial long. Exited and re-loaded yesterday lowering basis.

My summation signal is neutral. A solid break of yesterday's lows would turn it down.
My composite trend signal flipped from weakly positive to weakly negative.

Yesterday, when $/yen broke down, I audibled out of my SPX long. When it started to recover in the afternoon, I slapped it back on capturing some spread.
At the moment, it appears to have been a good move.
My signals, however, tee up possible short setups for me.
So, depending on how the day unfolds, I could end up long, neutral or short.
We have a settlement of the May Vix contract pain trade at the open. We'll see how the day progresses from here.
Janet opens her mouth again at 11:30 and FOMC minutes at 2:00. Should be dynamic.

While my signals are making my bear trigger finger twitch, there are bull counters.
One, a characteristic of this bull run has been the bulls ability to step back from the precipice almost every time they are at the edge. My signals say we are at the edge. (who said this is easy?)
Two, we have had two high TRIN days in the last four trading sessions. In a low VIX environment, there are good odds that a tradeable low is near (no guarantee).
Three, SPY P-Bars are all to the upside at the moment.
Four, pretty damn strong opening.

If the day stays strong, I'll leave my position alone.
If things break down, I could be jiggy.

[Heck]

Undervalued opening long Index puts more than twice calls suggest this may be a retrace before it goes down again

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

[fehro]

USD/JPY new recent lows.. but didn't take out Feb 2, 2014 lows.. 100.756

[gappy]

USD/JPY new recent lows.. but didn't take out Feb 2, 2014 lows.. 100.756

fwiw

Capture.PNG

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. possible cyan triangle/wedge.. for the FOMC rollercoaster? speculative at this point...

[Out of Bounds]

usd/jpy looks like a peak

[Mr. BachNut]

One way or another, I believe the end of the heinous trading range is near!

That's probably the closest I'll come to making an outright prediction...because I really don't have a clue...

[jademann]

Bachnut, I believe you are right. The low VIX cycle is well overdue for a breakout.