08/02/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more distribution than accumulation. The chart is updated on July 30, so not including the July 31 big sell off otherwise the institutional distribution should be even larger. Anyway, it doesn't tell much except what is happening now. To trade, we need know what is going to happen, not what is happening now...

Smart money shorted a little bit, nothing bad yet. Nothing good either, because we now need see huge covering on the smart money which would tell us that the low might be in.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1376&p=167924#p167924

[Al_Dente]

PG reported EPS pre-market today (Friday), and announced they will be divesting 90-100 businesses in the next 12-24 months.
They did not provide a list of brands that will be divested, but note the company's 70 to 80 top brands generate 90 percent of sales and 95 percent of profits.
While P&G is looking to cut mostly small brands, cumulatively their sales add up to the equivalent of a Fortune 500 company larger than Facebook.
CEO Lafley said 23 brands have sales of more than $1 billion, 14 with sales of $500 million to $1 billion and 30 to 40 brands with sales $100 million to $500 million
probably keeping: Tide, Crest, Gillette, Pampers, Always brand (female products) and others
probably divesting: dog food, Glide dental floss, Clairol Professional hair care, maybe Duracell batteries, and others
The market loved this news: dow stock PG closed up 3% even after selling off in the afternoon. In fact, PG was the only one holding up the dow this morn.
This may alter our famous “These Companies Control Almost Everything We Buy” graphic

[Daniel]

IEV (Europe 350 etf) opened and closed below its 200day SMA for the first time in at least 6 months.

[Cobra]

Preview of the next week's stock picks:
viewtopic.php?f=10&p=167928#p167928

[Royal Flush]

Since the beginning of 2013 every major SPY correction has found support near the daily SMA 100. Every correction has had a TRIN close >1.9 SPY has yet to reach the SMA 100 (although it is close) or have a TRIN close >1.9 Normally corrections are made up of 2 legs: after we pull back I expect another leg down. For sure then we will reach the SMA 100 and get the expected TRIN reading.

[jademann]

Royal, thanks for chart. Is there anyway of telling if this correction will be worse than the others?

[jack black]

OMG! the rydex strong dollar positions just came in from sentimentrader and they spiked to the levels not seen since end of May 2012. This was a great tradable low for gold miners, even though initially it was a frustrating trade (I was stopped a few times before it stuck).

Disclamer: it could be a confirmation bias as I just went long gold miners today.

However, at the same time, SPX had it's first leg down, to later rebound some and have a second leg down. I'm thinking this could happen again.

Edit: the lowest ever (since 1999) COT small speculators in euro point to the same conclusions. This looks exactly like the end of May 2012 scenario or even better because we have the massive inverted H&S in gold that we didn't have in 2012 bottom.

[merryme]

Is that a pbar on GDX on Aug 1st at 3:57? It even shows on the 1min chart on stockcharts.

[jack black]

Is that a pbar on GDX on Aug 1st at 3:57? It even shows on the 1min chart on stockcharts.

$27.52? I see it on yahoo finance plainly and clear. Someone pushed several mil of shares just before the close. Not me for sure.

[MrMiyagi]

Is that a pbar on GDX on Aug 1st at 3:57? It even shows on the 1min chart on stockcharts.

There were about 400,000 or so shares bought starting around 15:56 for 2 minutes that go up to 27.52$. Either a fund or trader who wanted the shares but didn't care all that much what the cost was so it was sent out as market, I assume.

The few million or so shares at the EOD are normal for GDX/GDXJ, I think that there are a shboatload of daytraders that cover at the end of every session.

[jack black]

Is anyone here concerned about wars in middle east and ukraine and ebola epidemic getting out of hand?
That could certainly move the markets.

I follow this twitter guy from germany and he has the most up to day info on the wars: https://twitter.com/MiddleEast_BRK

I don't know what to think, but 1976, 2000, and 2007 were major equity peaks. Is this just a coincidence?

[Royal Flush]

Royal, thanks for chart. Is there anyway of telling if this correction will be worse than the others?

Good question jademan, not presently AFAIK, however recent corrections have been capped by a VIX level of 22. If this level is exceeded I would look for a larger correction possibly to the 200 SMA.

[flrtrader]

We have a major trend line at 1965, also the neckline of the h&s is at 1965 area. So I expect a rebound to that area and then we see. Either jump the creek or trst the bottom.

TWT

[Royal Flush]

Thanks flrtrader ES or SPX?

[flrtrader]

Thanks flrtrader ES or SPX?

Spx

[daytradingES]

review of ES
http://screencast.com/t/cDSiFEWpbR

[Al_Dente]

RSI-2 daily was 0.80 at Friday’s close, lowest since may 2012
Bounce soon.
Compare the RSI lows of dec, jan and april (this year) where low RSIs forced a bounce that failed within days.

[DellGriffith]

OMG! the rydex strong dollar positions just came in from sentimentrader and they spiked to the levels not seen since end of May 2012. This was a great tradable low for gold miners, even though initially it was a frustrating trade (I was stopped a few times before it stuck).

Disclamer: it could be a confirmation bias as I just went long gold miners today.

However, at the same time, SPX had it's first leg down, to later rebound some and have a second leg down. I'm thinking this could happen again.

Edit: the lowest ever (since 1999) COT small speculators in euro point to the same conclusions. This looks exactly like the end of May 2012 scenario or even better because we have the massive inverted H&S in gold that we didn't have in 2012 bottom.

I went short gold a couple weeks ago and am still short. There is a large inverse head and shoulders on GLD but a far more MASSIVE contracting triangle that I believe will break DOWN to NEW lows. There IS a valid reason for the bid up in the USD - Russia. Here is my view:

[daytradingES]

@Dell

I saw an article at zerohedge a few days ago (like 3 or so) about Goldman Sachs calls on gold.

in case it helps..