08/09/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Smart money shorted a little bit, not good, because usually when the market goes down, smart money would cover a lot and one day when we see a huge covering then chances are the bottom was in. But now instead of covering, it goes on adding more short, not a good sign as it could mean the low wasn't in yet.

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more distribution than accumulation. It doesn't tell much except what is happening now. To trade, we need know what is going to happen, not what is happening now...

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1383&p=168566#p168566

[cletus]

A rare thing has occurred. The 3 month vol futures made a local higher high while the vix did not. This only happened once recently...in 2013. The market bottomed there and went on to new all time highs. The event in 2013 happened a little after my vertical line which I shifted to the left to avoid covering up the signal.

[Cobra]

just to move this thread up...

[Mark]

If we mimic now to Jan 2014, we need a lower low to make a second spike. It is possible we have not bottomed. I think the OE might be on the low, which is next Friday.

[DellGriffith]

Spy corrections:











The duration of SPY corrections have grown shorter recently. The first one in this series was 21 days. They've gone 21, 24, 23, 23, 18, 15, 6 and the current one may have bottomed on day 10. But SPY hasn't visited its 200 dma in a record amount of time so maybe this one will continue? The downtrend line on the current correction is the flattest of any in this series. Usually the initial downtrend line is quite steep, it gets broken, and then the correction continues but that's not the pattern here.

[jack black]

How about those corrections instead (all in bull market)?








http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/in ... can-we-do/

[jack black]

@ DellGriffith
Question for you. Who and when wrote this about gold:

Two years ago gold bugs ran wild as the price of gold rose nearly six times. But since cresting two years ago it has steadily declined, almost by half, putting the gold bugs in flight. The most recent advisory from a leading Wall Street firm suggests that the price will continue to drift downward, and may ultimately settle 40% below current levels.

The rout says a lot about consumer confidence in the worldwide recovery. The sharply reduced rates of inflation combined with resurgence of other, more economically productive investments, such as stocks, real estate, and bank savings have combined to eliminate gold's allure.

Although the American economy has reduced its rapid rate of recovery, it is still on a firm expansionary course. The fear that dominated two years ago has largely vanished, replaced by a recovery that has turned the gold speculators' dreams into a nightmare.

[jademann]

VIX change of trend?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... 2562907989

[daytradingES]

Smart money shorted a little bit, not good, because usually when the market goes down, smart money would cover a lot and one day when we see a huge covering then chances are the bottom was in. But now instead of covering, it goes on adding more short, not a good sign as it could mean the low wasn't in yet.

SmartMoney.png

Cobra,

does the chart show weekly numbers?
(if they added shorts on Mon to Thursday and then covered Friday would it show?)

[daytradingES]

Review or ES ETH (extended trading hours) weekly numbers.
Current decline is steeper than the Jan-feb14 fall
and is close in distance 95.5 vs 114.5 of previous (19pts shy).

Once the decline is longer in time than the decline on the way up
or more in points than on the way up, the tide has changed (- according to WD Gann)

Do you need both?
Not sure he always completes a sentence with
.... and according to all the other rules,..)

[daytradingES]

I think the ramp will continue next week
however if the bears can push it below 1892.25 on a RTH close then they have got something going.
(it went to 1890.25 in the o/n low on Friday and then up to 1928.25 @14:58 so a ramp of 38 pts!!!)
numbers are ES and times are CT

The chart show a trendline for the last two year and you can see how we are right at it.

[quientuves]

From this POV, I expect another flat or higher day Monday, may be up to 193.8?? Then resume the falling...

[jack black]

@ DellGriffith
Question for you. Who and when wrote this about gold:

Two years ago gold bugs ran wild as the price of gold rose nearly six times. But since cresting two years ago it has steadily declined, almost by half, putting the gold bugs in flight. The most recent advisory from a leading Wall Street firm suggests that the price will continue to drift downward, and may ultimately settle 40% below current levels.

The rout says a lot about consumer confidence in the worldwide recovery. The sharply reduced rates of inflation combined with resurgence of other, more economically productive investments, such as stocks, real estate, and bank savings have combined to eliminate gold's allure.

Although the American economy has reduced its rapid rate of recovery, it is still on a firm expansionary course. The fear that dominated two years ago has largely vanished, replaced by a recovery that has turned the gold speculators' dreams into a nightmare.

I see no takers?
The correct answer is the August 29, 1976 edition of The New York Times, LOL.

[MrMiyagi]

nysi

[Mr. BachNut]

Haven't posted this study in awhile.
Last two signals were fails and I had a data interruption for awhile.

However, model has been responsive in signaling this current correction.

Friday weekly closing SKEW was 120.36.
Prior corrections did not finish until a weekly SKEW close < 119 and ideally under 116.
So, this data suggests that lows may get revisited or new lows made at some point, perhaps after an OPEX week rally.

[Mr. BachNut]

TRIN says rally time for now.

[gappy]

Ukraine/Gaza cools off and the world markets rally. Here, we that have some options expiring know max pain is higher. Every "backward J" recovery bounces off near 125 ema then takes off.

b.PNG

Capture.PNG

Bulls will sleep tight tonight.

[ALdaytrade]

Is this not a 4th wave up to perhaps 1937 having the 5th wave start down sometime tomorrow?

[quientuves]

Is this not a 4th wave up to perhaps 1937 having the 5th wave start down sometime tomorrow?

At least, that fits with my vision of the field... but we can see even higher prices...