01/24/2015 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows equal accumulation and distribution, so not helping.

Smart money doesn't show huge selling or buying, so not much use this week. Maybe the chart won't work anymore.



Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises from very negative to very positive value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1553&p=182239#p182239

[Al_Dente]

I am truly sorry for losing virtually all your money.
"My only hope is that you understand that I acted in an attempt—however misguided—to generate higher returns for the fund and its investors.
But even so, I acted overzealously, causing you devastating losses for which there is no excuse."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102356275

[fehro]

Weekly/Daily Candles. *Corrected Daily chart

[fehro]

Yields and ...
Canada wins the blue ribbon for the first G-7 yield curve inversion since central bankers started unleashing competitive "preemptive" rate cuts.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... -with.html

[fehro]

T2s

[fehro]

Index Weekly %

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1560

[DellGriffith]

Daily SPY

I went back tonite and looked at all recent rallies that came immediately after a correction ended. I looked at the first couple of weeks. How many times do you think I found back to back red candles?

ZERO!

In fact, I found quite a few gaps up after just one red candle. History suggests the losing play was to sell or (have mercy) go short today's red candle.

Red candles early on after a bottom:

November 4th, 2014: next day gap up and never looked back
October 29th 2014: next day opened lower but ended as a huge white candle and gap up the next day.
October 22nd 2014: next day gap up and never ever looked back
August 15th, 2014: next day gap up never looked back
August 12th, 2014: next day gap up never looked back
August 15th, 2013: next day gap up never looked back
September 12th, 2013: next day flat, day after that was a gap up never looked back
June 28th, 2013: might be the best of the lot for bears. Trading range for 3 days, but then it gap way up and never looked back.

The trend suggests the OVERWHELMING favorite result of monday's candle is a gap up white one, and we never look back.

Of course this is just the recent historical pattern and its subject to change.

[Cobra]

Daily SPY

I went back tonite and looked at all recent rallies that came immediately after a correction ended. I looked at the first couple of weeks. How many times do you think I found back to back red candles?

ZERO!

In fact, I found quite a few gaps up after just one red candle. History suggests the losing play was to sell or (have mercy) go short today's red candle.

Red candles early on after a bottom:

November 4th, 2014: next day gap up and never looked back
October 29th 2014: next day opened lower but ended as a huge white candle and gap up the next day.
October 22nd 2014: next day gap up and never ever looked back
August 15th, 2014: next day gap up never looked back
August 12th, 2014: next day gap up never looked back
August 15th, 2013: next day gap up never looked back
September 12th, 2013: next day flat, day after that was a gap up never looked back
June 28th, 2013: might be the best of the lot for bears. Trading range for 3 days, but then it gap way up and never looked back.

The trend suggests the OVERWHELMING favorite result of monday's candle is a gap up white one, and we never look back.

Of course this is just the recent historical pattern and its subject to change.

In another word, Monday suppose to gap up, but if Monday down huge, then this time is different, wolf may finally coming.

[DellGriffith]

Daily SPY

I went back tonite and looked at all recent rallies that came immediately after a correction ended. I looked at the first couple of weeks. How many times do you think I found back to back red candles?

ZERO!

In fact, I found quite a few gaps up after just one red candle. History suggests the losing play was to sell or (have mercy) go short today's red candle.

Red candles early on after a bottom:

November 4th, 2014: next day gap up and never looked back
October 29th 2014: next day opened lower but ended as a huge white candle and gap up the next day.
October 22nd 2014: next day gap up and never ever looked back
August 15th, 2014: next day gap up never looked back
August 12th, 2014: next day gap up never looked back
August 15th, 2013: next day gap up never looked back
September 12th, 2013: next day flat, day after that was a gap up never looked back
June 28th, 2013: might be the best of the lot for bears. Trading range for 3 days, but then it gap way up and never looked back.

The trend suggests the OVERWHELMING favorite result of monday's candle is a gap up white one, and we never look back.

Of course this is just the recent historical pattern and its subject to change.

In another word, Monday suppose to gap up, but if Monday down huge, then this time is different, wolf may finally coming.

Yah...supposed to....I've been wrong plenty of times before tho! But that's what stops are for!

[gato.chan]

Daily SPY

I went back tonite and looked at all recent rallies that came immediately after a correction ended. I looked at the first couple of weeks. How many times do you think I found back to back red candles?

ZERO!

Except for Jan 9 and 12. That wasn't the short-term bottom, but looking at the candles on the 7th and 8th it sure looked like it.

[DellGriffith]

Daily SPY

I went back tonite and looked at all recent rallies that came immediately after a correction ended. I looked at the first couple of weeks. How many times do you think I found back to back red candles?

ZERO!

Except for Jan 9 and 12. That wasn't the short-term bottom, but looking at the candles on the 7th and 8th it sure looked like it.

Your count may be different, but I have 12/30 to 1/15 as an ABC correction. Maybe you see it as 1/6 being the end of a correction, but I always had that date as the end of wave A down.

[fehro]

SPY weekly

[Al_Dente]

FOR THE BULLS:
This is LONG TERM WEEKLY, 8 years, some of our sectors, straight charts.
The only bad mama here is energy, which we all know.
As this is uber-long term, it has nothing to do with Greek Monday, or FOMC Wednesday

FOR THE BEARS:
From a short guy ("We are currently at 50% short"): This is a succinct summary of all the reasons we could be bearish.
"...market timing is often an exercise in patience"
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2835696 ... 2015?ifp=0

FOR THE OILS:
Oil futures appear poised to test the 13 jan low
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=h1

FOR MrMiyagi:
News on the kidney shortage:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/pri ... ge/384710/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYajHZ4QUVM

[fehro]

SPY weekly V2.0.. similar patterns fwiw.. is it really small this time? yellow.. or still need to form pink?.. waiting for the actual ECB buying to start in Mar? Green line break.. and hold could lead to more selling pressure after a possible green line retest from underneath.. (larger pink)

.. in simple terms.. a higher low.. sets up for higher highs.. prior two patterns looked liked a possible expanding ending triangle.. but never made it back to the lower side.

[BullBear52x]

Why the panic? normally buy the panic but why at this level? should the panic be at lower price?

[BullBear52x]

$NYMO/$NAMO are not very exciting for bulls either, I want to see more buying this rebound doesn't look that strong.

[brucekeller]

We'll find out after the Greek vote. Kind of mad I didn't get my 401k order in in time to get some midcaps for Monday, but it's a big gamble and maybe I'll be happy in the end buying on Monday's close in case the Leftist party gains power/ this new War breakout in Ukraine, Monday opens red, but rebounds Tuesday.

[DellGriffith]

We'll find out after the Greek vote. Kind of mad I didn't get my 401k order in in time to get some midcaps for Monday, but it's a big gamble and maybe I'll be happy in the end buying on Monday's close in case the Leftist party gains power/ this new War breakout in Ukraine, Monday opens red, but rebounds Tuesday.

Greece is in bad shape either way. What I've been saying for years is:

1. the left is wrong because it believes in debt spending which is just bad stimulus that doesn't fix the problem.
2. the right is wrong because it believes in austerity which will just create a recession and not fix the problem.
3. the correct solution is to become more business friendly and cut business regulations, which would actually boost growth in a clean way and create high paying jobs.

Unfortunately, no-one is offering the correct solution yet.

We're in the fallacy of the false dilemma. We are presented two bad options. The third option is the correct one but everyone ignores it.

We can return to an economic boom tomorrow. Just start cutting regulations. But they won't because anytime someone suggests it, critics assume some end-of-world scenario where cutting some regulations will kill us all. In the end, the answer seems to be both the left and right must fail hard, possibly for decades, until this anti-business sentiment simply burns itself out on repeated failures.

The outcome of the Greek election is already ASSURED. Failure. Because no-one is offering the correct solution yet.