05/09/2015 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more distribution than accumulation but it doesn't include today's huge up, so may not mean anything.

[Cobra]

Smart money covered huge this week, so maybe the low was in?


Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

summary of the week's stock picks.
bad week, never happened before.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1658&p=191445#p191445

[fehro]

Daily / Weekly Candles

[fehro]

Industry % Weekly

[fehro]

T@ http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm Mixed signals.. % of stocks 40/200d lags/diverges... with that sharp push up over the last two days.. as we near all time highs... time will tell. *Interesting to note the increase in the SPY volume on Friday in the chart above... quite the push.

[fehro]

Yields

[fehro]

Options expiration next week.. VIX the following.. should make for a interesting week.

[jway888]

Smart money covered huge this week, so maybe the low was in?


Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

2.png

King Cobra's analysis came out before sentiment's latest published report, outstanding Sir!
(That just means I am going to see my short position getting very very red on Monday, ouch! )

[Cobra]

The next week's stock picks are for everyone:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1665&p=191453#p191453

[Cobra]

Smart money covered huge this week, so maybe the low was in?


Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

2.png

King Cobra's analysis came out before sentiment's latest published report, outstanding Sir!
(That just means I am going to see my short position getting very very red on Monday, ouch! )

I'm not sure the low was in. Just one evidence is not enough.

[fehro]

Someone was buying protection today...

[fehro]

$SSEC Weekly... last week's candle.. looks similar.. to this week's $WTIC

[fehro]

Despite the overall green of the market on Friday.. TRAN still looks vulnerable.. channel/ descending wedge/50d/flag retest.... needs to step up asap.

[user13]

I guess someone knew about the NonFarm?

[Al_Dente]

BESPOKE earnings beat rate:
“More than 2,000 companies have reported first quarter earnings numbers since the reporting period began in early April. Through…[yesterday 5/8], 60.3% of companies that have reported have beaten their consensus analyst EPS estimates.
Notably, though, the beat rate has been trending lower since the end of April, which has coincided with a pullback in stock prices. Below is a chart showing the earnings beat rate as this season has progressed. As shown, the peak for earnings beats came on 4/27, when 66.6% of companies that had reported between 4/8 and 4/27 had beaten EPS estimates. Following a huge batch of misses on 4/28, the beat rate fell to 64.8%, and by the end of last week it had dipped to 62.6%.
Nearly 1,000 companies reported earnings this week, and once the dust had settled, the beat rate dropped another 2.3 percentage points down to its current level of 60.3%. Earnings season ends on May 19th with Wal-Mart’s (WMT) report, but the pace will slow markedly next week. At this point it’s going to be tough for the beat rate tally for the quarter to move much more in either direction.”

[Al_Dente]

Past data regarding trading around May option expiration (Friday)
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/11846 ... -the-bulls

[Cobra]

90% of SPY high to low gaps since the year 2009 bull market were filled, but the problem is, sometimes it take years to fill the gap so knowing 90% is not enough. we'll need research on average how long it takes to fill a gap and if possible the max draw down before the gap fill.

[Cobra]

members only report provided more research on the gap fill I just mentioned: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/05 ... g-the-gap/

[Out of Bounds]

members only report provided more research on the gap fill I just mentioned: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/05 ... g-the-gap/

This very very nice of you to have done this.
Thank you.