07/25/2016 Live Update

[Cobra]

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kind of ascending triangle, so breakout still is a little more likely.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/07 ... ay-update/

[daytradingES]

Monday

-------- from Barcharts:
Sep E-mini S&Ps (ESU16 +0.03%) are little changed this morning as the market gains some support from higher European stocks but faces uncertainty about whether the FOMC at its Tue-Wed meeting might turn a bit more hawkish in its post-meeting statement. The Euro Stoxx 50 index this morning is up +0.65% on a boost from Germany's business climate index, which largely shook off Brexit concerns and fell by only -0.4 to 108.3, stronger than expectations of -1.2 to 107.5. Asian stocks on Monday were mixed: Japan -0.04%, Hong Kong +0.13%, China Shanghai +0.10%, Taiwan -0.24%, Australia +0.64%, Singapore -0.53%, South Korea +0.24%, India +1.05%, Turkey +2.94%.

There was little news out of the weekend G20 meeting in China where finance ministers and central bankers said that "all policy tools -- monetary, fiscal and structural" should be used to support growth in the wake of Brexit. There was also talk about how to limit the damage from rising calls for trade protectionism.

Turkey's stock market is up +2.9% today and the Turkish lira is up +1% after Turkey's prime minister ruled out early elections and said that Turkey plans a multi-billion-dollar infrastructure program to provide stimulus to support the economy after the recent failed military coup.

Europe and the U.S. remain on edge about terrorist attacks after (1) last Friday's shooting spree at a shopping center in Munich that killed nine people, (2) a suicide bombing attack on Sunday at a music festival in the German town of Ansbach near Nuremberg that injured 12, and (3) a shooting at a Fort Myers, Florida night club on Sunday night that killed two people and wounded 14-16 people although there was no news as yet as to whether there were connections to terrorism
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Commodity prices this morning are slightly lower by -0.08 points despite the lower dollar. Sep WTI crude oil (CLU16 -0.86%) this morning is down -32 cents (-0.72%) on continued weakness from last Friday's news from Baker Hughes that the number of active U.S. oil rigs rose by another 14 rigs to 371, bringing the 8-week upward rebound to a total of 55 rigs (+17.4%) from the 6-3/4 year low of 316 rigs posted in late May. Metals prices are mixed this morning with Aug gold (GCQ16 -0.49%) down -6.8 (-0.51%) and Sep silver (SIU16 -1.09%) down -0.164 (-0.83%) but Sep copper (HGU16 +0.16%) is up +0.005 (+0.22%). Grains this morning are mixed with Dec corn up +0.75 (+0.22%), Nov beans down -1.25 (-0.13%), and Sep wheat up +5.50 (+1.29%). Softs this morning are mixed with Oct sugar up +0.15 (+0.77%), Sep coffee down -0.30 (-0.21%), Sep cocoa up +11 (+0.38%), and Dec cotton down -0.67 (-0.92%).
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MARKET COMMENTS

Sep 10-year T-note prices are down -6 ticks due to higher global stocks and supply overhang ahead of this week's $103 billion T-note package that begins today with the sale of $26 billion of 2-year T-notes. Friday's closes: TYU6 -3.50, FVU6 -3.00. Sep T-notes on Friday closed lower on reduced safe-haven demand with the rally in stocks and on the stronger-than-expected Jul Markit manufacturing PMI which expanded at its fastest pace in 9 months and bolstered the case for the Fed to raise interest rates. T-notes received some support from global growth concerns after both the Eurozone and UK Jul Markit manufacturing PMI indexes moved lower.

The dollar index is mildly lower by -0.18 points (-0.18%) this morning with EUR/USD up +0.0010 (+0.09%) and USD/JPY up +0.16 (+0.15%). Friday's closes: Dollar index +0.467 (+0.48%), EUR/USD -0.0049 (-0.44%), USD/JPY +0.31 (+0.29%). The dollar index on Friday climbed to a 4-1/4 month high and settled higher on U.S. economic strength that may spur the Fed to raise interest rates after the Jul Markit manufacturing PMI rose +1.6 to 52.9, a 9-month high. The dollar was also boosted by weakness in EUR/USD which tumbled to a 1-month low on speculation the ECB may need to boost stimulus after the Eurozone Jul Markit manufacturing PMI fell more than expected (-0.9 to 51.9).

Sep WTI crude oil this morning is down -32 cents (-0.72%) on continued weakness from last Friday's news from Baker Hughes that the number of active U.S. oil rigs rose by another 14 rigs to 371, bringing the 8-week upward rebound to a total of 55 rigs (+17.4%) from the 6-3/4 year low of 316 rigs posted in late May. Friday's closes: CLU6 -0.49 (-1.09%), RBU6 -0.0011 (-0.08%). Sep crude oil and gasoline closed lower on Friday with Sep gasoline at a 3-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar index to a 4-1/4 month high and by ample supplies with U.S. crude and gasoline supplies at their highest seasonal level in at least two decades.
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7:56 AM 7/25/2016
Z=-.03%
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google news
Market
Japan Stocks Retreat Before BOJ Policy Meeting; Nintendo Plunges
Bloomberg - 12 hours ago
Shares in Tokyo slid as investors awaited a decision on monetary policy from the Bank of Japan this week and weighed corporate earnings results.
Oil prices slide on oversupply, economic headwinds
Reuters - 13 hours ago
LONDON Oil prices fell on Monday, holding near two-month lows amid worries that a global glut of crude and refined products would weigh on markets for some time.
Fed likely to leave rates on ice despite hot economy
Bankrate.com - 3 hours ago
Two of the nation's most high-profile women take the spotlight in different locations this week. Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen will lead the group's 2-day meeting in Washington.
Sprint's Loss Widens
Wall Street Journal - 1 hour ago
Sprint Corp. S 0.43 % on Monday reported its loss widened in the most recent quarter, though revenue slid less than expected. Shares, which have risen 22% over the past three months, added another 5.8% premarket to $4.89.

http://www.google.com/finance

[daytradingES]

cl update

[fehro]

SPX mind the morning gap, trends.

[fehro]

wholly VIX

[fehro]

SPX initial support.. VIX takes out Fri's HOD, SPX looses Fri's LOD looking for 2143.. H&S target, 2155-52 gap fill

[fehro]

/CL nears possible channel support.. mind the 50w 41.50 yellow, 200d 40.56 purple W/D/60m

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/07 ... ay-update/

[MrMiyagi]

Quick update, some open up to 10 day but much lower near $215, $206 and $202 but close to expiry.

spyV

[Cobra]

pullback may have legs

[fehro]

SPY 30m.. support / neckline.. hold or crack.. breaks.. could see a sharp $2 drop.. 212.50 much better support fwiw.

[Al_Dente]

NY declining stocks are 1.8 x advancing stocks
NY declining volume is 2.9 x advancing volume

[Trades with cats]

Black Gold more bad news. Genscape says Cushing inventory +1.1 million barrels. If API confirms could be viewed badly as we are entering the part of the calendar where drawdowns stop. Media is routinely running negative stories on crude. Recent is that refiners will shut down early this fall and do some deferred maintenance. If true AND if reports of CHina ready to drop 1 million barrels a day of imports come true than we are due for an epic low.

Maintenance stories sound possible, after all refiners have had a good run of it, crack spreads are falling fast and we have a surplus of product. Seems like a reasonable decision to cut marginal production to fix the equipment. China I am not so sure. With surplus steel and workers I wonder how log it would take them to build even more tanks.

[daytradingES]

9:36
High Est 2170.50
Actual High 2167.00
Dif= 3.50
Low Est 2158.50
Actual Low 2158.00
Dif= 0.50

[fehro]

SPX still and inside day to Fri.. .. minor bear flag.. SPX 5m.. VIX possible resistance.. hourly.. trying to hammer.. need 5m

[Cobra]

could be a rebound here then we'll see

[Al_Dente]

Options traders say NO
1/VIX moves to sell-SPY after being on the buy side since the 28 june signal
(same sell profile on 1/RVX for IWM, not shown here)
DAILY chart

[fehro]

SPX LOD and Fri's LOD goes.. looking for 2155-52 gap fill still then 2145 target

[Al_Dente]

Equal-weight Small Caps (black) is diverging from the IWM (cyan).
This can be easily cured….but until then…. caution….
DAILY

MID CAPS: Dana Lyons shows the MID CAPS in an historic tight-range consolidation “the 8-day range is the narrowest in more than 20 years … it is generally thought that exceptionally tight ranges lead to out-sized moves once the range is broken. The notion is that the action is akin to a coiled spring that, when released, expends its considerable pent-up energy…. if the continuation pattern unfolds “by the book”, the index should break out to the upside…. to all-time high ground”
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/1478099383 ... r-big-move