08/20/2016 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Smart money covered a little from the record short, so it's case 1.), the top might be in?


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

the weekly sentiment poll is here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2149

[Cobra]

summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2142&p=228810#p228810

[Zane]

hi cobra
im just wondering what other services does the sediment traders provide other than the chart you have posted? anything useful or reliable?

i was expect some kind of a selling since smart money is at record short? not the case?

[Cobra]

the next week's stock picks are here: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2151

[Cobra]

hi cobra
im just wondering what other services does the sediment traders provide other than the chart you have posted? anything useful or reliable?

i was expect some kind of a selling since smart money is at record short? not the case?

Smart money sometimes can be wrong. We'll know the next week. The covering this week is needed otherwise we don't know where the pivot point is. If no pullback the next week AND smart money keeps covering then the signal is wrong this time. If no pullback but smart money record short again, then we need wait for the next next week.

Sentimentraders provide all kinds of indicators and everyday report is statistics. It suitable for people who'd like to make their own trading decisions because how to use those indicators and statistics are up to you. It doesn't forecast the market like I do, so it's different. As for whether those signals are reliable? I generally find no signals are reliable (not saying sentimentrader's indicators, I mean all indicators, no exception) when against the trend. Say, the market now is up and up and up, but instead of long, you want to short, I can bet, you will find hundreds of indicators telling you that you can short, but chances are, most of your shorts would fail. So in the end, no indicators can be trusted, the only thing works is the trend.

[Trades with cats]

Since the True Strength indicator is popular on this board, and it is the weekend I thought I would put up three more of Blau's double and triple smothered oscillators on yesterday's five minute chart. They are in order, Double Smoothed Momentum, Double Smoothed Stochastics, Directional Trend Index (triple smoothed) and the True Strength Index. The funny looking one at the bottom is called ana Momentum with BB lines. It is a smoothed and balanced momentum line with it's own 1 deviation Bollinger Band. I think it tracks almost the same as the TSI but is a little more insightful because of the BB lines. Fat tails coded all of these indicators.

[Trades with cats]

Crude Oil- Life is a lot easier if you stick to the charts alone. If you are aware of some of the fundamentals, seasonals and game theory going on it gets more complicated. To me the best idea is to study the charts provided by the technicians and interpret fundamentals and seasonals as inputs to game theory being played out on the charts.

Everybody and their cousin "knew" seasonal fundamentals were going to crush price and they went record short. Then, before the numbers became irrefutable (and they still aren't, just close) somebody started buying, the Saudis started doing news releases and the squeeze was on. So the shorts went into damage control and up we went. We all know the quote about how long markets can stay irrational, but let me stand up and say it is one thing to read it, it is quite another to live through it (especially with options). Most know that the shorts will eventually be proven correct but it isn't an easy journey.

I have no idea what the off the record deals are between the money people and the shale drillers. I have observed banker's doing work-outs and I would be betting that the banks want a big chunk of future production sold so they know they are getting enough interest and principle pay down to keep these credits on the performing side of the ledger. Well this short covering rally did the trick kicking Dec 2017 contracts over the magic $50 level. I suppose that means the drill rigs will keep going. They started back up (only 1 so far) in Ohio this week. So the profitable 'sweet spot' keeps getting bigger.

So a normal week in oil, demand softening, production, inventory and prices all going up. Next week I will be looking at everyone's oil charts for the obvious resistance levels as the late summer squeeze gets ready to run out of gas.

[Cobra]

please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll, thanks.
viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2149

[Cobra]

ATR(14) to price ratio very low now, only 2 other similar cases in the past. We all know usually ATR low means top, ATR high means bottom.

ATR is absolute value so when SPX is at 1000 the ATR is lower than when SPX is at 2000 therefore I prefer to use ATR to price ratio, this way the price base is counted.

[BullBear52x]

From it is what it is department:
Top megaphone chart pattern? if so this consolidation will continue a bit longer. If market doesn't want to go down then why not float with it? I am expecting high volatility in a coming week.

$BPSPX is back bullish bias(wavrider special)

CMF money flow is back above MA, I will have to give the bull a benefit of a doubt coupled with a refusal to correct in price

[BullBear52x]

ES 09-16 (5 Min) 8_19_2016.jpg

Since the True Strength indicator is popular on this board, and it is the weekend I thought I would put up three more of Blau's double and triple smothered oscillators on yesterday's five minute chart. They are in order, Double Smoothed Momentum, Double Smoothed Stochastics, Directional Trend Index (triple smoothed) and the True Strength Index. The funny looking one at the bottom is called ana Momentum with BB lines. It is a smoothed and balanced momentum line with it's own 1 deviation Bollinger Band. I think it tracks almost the same as the TSI but is a little more insightful because of the BB lines. Fat tails coded all of these indicators.

need to see tonight if a correction should start, last week many indicators are switching back to slightly bullish bias, if it's bull trap or for real tomorrow will find out soon enough.

[BullBear52x]

$SPX cash, intraday is slightly bullish bias, see $TICK and $VIX, price wise I want to see a trade above 2186.5, if so it will regain short term up trend and stop out mid term sell. that's my trading plan. Peace!