09/12/2011 Intraday Watering

Post by **Cobra** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:04 am

Big gap down below the Friday's range, but since it's very close to the past consolidation area, so really hard to say whether the dip will be bought or not. Let's wait and see.

Chart pattern wise, if indeed breakdown then it's 1-2-3 Trend Change formation, from my past experiences, however, the failure rate of 1-2-3 Trend Change pattern is pretty high, but perhaps that's because I didn't take the previous trend into consideration. Since in our current case, the big picture is down, so I'll suppose this 1-2-3 Trend Change has good chances. Let's see. For now I'm skeptical because of the past experiences, I mean let's use this chance to verify if indeed a 1-2-3 Trend Change has 70% winning rate.

I don't think it's a H&S top because to be a H&S top there must exit a previous downtrend which I don't see yet, plus H&S pattern has astonishingly high failure rate at least in the past 2 years.

99er · Post by **99er** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:12 am

Good Morning.

Hey honey...Greek one-years are yielding 111.7%.
EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/eurusd_12.html

Let's have Ouzo with our Moon Cakes.

cougar · Post by **cougar** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:13 am

LOL! Good one, 99er!!!

AK84 · Post by **AK84** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:14 am

Morning Cobra,

Hope you had a nice weekend! Looks like we have broken out of the big bear flag so seems like 1040-1050 is a given! My question for you is about today’s open. Do you think there will be a rebound at the open because I am thinking of covering my shorts at the open and re-shorting on a bounce ( the large gap down Friday and today make me think the open might b bought as the down move looks unsustainable). Just trying to figure out if covering at the open is good idea and so I can re-load on the intraday bounce because I think the rebound will fail .

Thanks so much!

PS. Absolutely amazing report this weekend! Didnt get much time to comment and share my thoughts as it was a busy weekend for me but fantastic read!

99er · Post by **99er** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:15 am

Honey?
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/es_12.html

How about Ouzo and Moon Cakes on the beach?

babaro22 · Post by **babaro22** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:16 am

It doesn't look good, bulls. According to my timing indicators the bear market is starting here! S&P moved below the moving average that was the best support in the last 10-15 years, SMA 375 on daily chart or SMA 75 on weekly. This is usually a bad omen for stocks. even more the pair of EMAs that defined every bull or bear market in the last 20 years is starting giving a "sell" signal since the EMA 100 is crossing EMA 200. While I expect another run towards SMA 375 (1,215 on SPX) I think the market is doomed.

http://babaro22.blogspot.com/"

99er · Post by **99er** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:16 am

cougar

Thanks for the great charts over the weekend; very helpful!

agnosia · Post by **agnosia** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:18 am

hey guys , got long /cl 86.2, looking for 87.24 gap fill.

cougar · Post by **cougar** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:20 am

99er: My pleasure... I enjoyed your charts also...

99er · Post by **99er** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:22 am

Honey...what does Dr. Copper say today?
HG http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/copper_12.html

"Surf's up."

AK84 · Post by **AK84** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:25 am

Morning All,

Swing Trade Option Ideas for the week:

Longs:

AAPL @367-370
FAZ- Above 64
TZA - Above 51
MA - @ 316 (50DMA ) + Trendline Support. Short below these levels.
ISRG - long at 360 (stop at 20dma)

Shorts:
NFLX below 202 - Target 194 (major trendline )
CRM (stop at 130)
IBM - Below 159
PCLN - 516 - Tgt : 504 (gap )
CMG - below 300
WYNN - below 150
FFIV - target 68
ANF - Short at 63
SOHU
GOOG - Taget 490

GLTA!

Post by **Cobra** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:27 am

AK84 wrote:Morning Cobra,

Hope you had a nice weekend! Looks like we have broken out of the big bear flag so seems like 1040-1050 is a given! My question for you is about today’s open. Do you think there will be a rebound at the open because I am thinking of covering my shorts at the open and re-shorting on a bounce ( the large gap down Friday and today make me think the open might b bought as the down move looks unsustainable). Just trying to figure out if covering at the open is good idea and so I can re-load on the intraday bounce because I think the rebound will fail .

Thanks so much!

PS. Absolutely amazing report this weekend! Didnt get much time to comment and share my thoughts as it was a busy weekend for me but fantastic read!

my guess is it's hard to breakdown, really strong support below. Just a guess.

AK84 · Post by **AK84** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:28 am

Cobra wrote:
AK84 wrote:Morning Cobra,

Hope you had a nice weekend! Looks like we have broken out of the big bear flag so seems like 1040-1050 is a given! My question for you is about today’s open. Do you think there will be a rebound at the open because I am thinking of covering my shorts at the open and re-shorting on a bounce ( the large gap down Friday and today make me think the open might b bought as the down move looks unsustainable). Just trying to figure out if covering at the open is good idea and so I can re-load on the intraday bounce because I think the rebound will fail .

Thanks so much!

PS. Absolutely amazing report this weekend! Didnt get much time to comment and share my thoughts as it was a busy weekend for me but fantastic read!
my guess is it's hard to breakdown, really strong support below. Just a guess.

Thanks so much! 1125 is the lower BB as well so we may see a bounce at the open!

Mongoose · Post by **Mongoose** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:29 am

Excellent weekend report, Cobra.

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:30 am

Cobra:

You are in highly esteemed company.

Libor and the Ted Spread are also showing signs indicating further downside in SPX (intermediate term).

That hasn’t happened in a while.

They’ve both been pretty quiet since May last year, when they signaled the SPX sell-off, and then they gave the all-clear bull signal last August for SPX.
(Their last significant signal before that was the crisis of ’08 when they both just went berserk).

Right now they are just slowly, quietly breaking out, as if nobody is watching. But we are.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$LIBOR ... =243566426

Post by **Cobra** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:31 am

the open. I think we'll see rebound first.

Mongoose · Post by **Mongoose** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:32 am

I know you would most likely be resistant to the idea, however, I would still be curious, as an experiment, if, when analysing the SPY, using the same perameters or indicators, if analysing the SH would arrive at the same conclusions.
Just a thought.

99er · Post by **99er** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:33 am

So honey...when should we head out to the beach?
AUDJPY http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/audjpy_12.html

Soon, honey...soon.

Ummm...that was fast.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/audjpy_9846.html

BullBear52x · Post by **BullBear52x** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:38 am

SOX/SMH especially strong today, TICK/Q = -1079, no new LOD on Qs some force of buying is in the making.

99er · Post by **99er** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:43 am

Sorry about that honey.
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/spx.html

That's okay. How about a back test?

Cobra's Market View

Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

09/12/2011 Intraday Watering

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