02/29/2020 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 63% chances to close up.

[Al_Dente]

Interesting piece by our own Marty Pring on the SELLING CLIMAX
https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartw ... i-339.html

Also from stockcharts, a good one from David Keller:
" I would not be surprised to see a brief recovery followed by further downside"
https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartw ... e-890.html

[Al_Dente]

Percent of stocks above/below 200ma
It’s important.
Consider for a moment that in 2008 this indicator slipped below 50% … and did not recover.
Yes... it’s very important today that bulls soon regain above that 50% marker, or else … you know...
The shaded area is THE 2007-2008-2009 CHART:

[Heck]

PCG Target + 146 %
From 15.2 to 37.44

29.21 % Debt to Equity

[te_fern]

Thanks for the Links, Pasta Boss! Not looking good for the IT. Will be thinking about selling my main mutual fund,on the expected bounce, to wait for a better entry point.

[Al_Dente]

Thanks for the Links, Pasta Boss! Not looking good for the IT. Will be thinking about selling my main mutual fund,on the expected bounce, to wait for a better entry point.

Hi boss: What does "IT" mean?

ELSEWHERE:
Monday, February 24:  Instead of the usual slap on the hand, WFC was finally fined $3 billion for their fraud….[plus another $1+ billion in earlier fines]. This is unprecedented.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/21/business ... index.html

ONE YEAR CHARTS of the TBTFs (too big to fails), daily, with the default 20/50 MAs:

[te_fern]

Intermediate Term (versus ST and LT). Now please don't ask me how long that it! LOL!

[BullBear52x]

Here are the key long term internals, summation index is not as bad.

The bad:
A trade under 200ma, Bulls need to regain above this MA next week or life is hell for them.

The good:
For those who complained how over value this market is, this is time to find value, unless you think the world that we know it comes to an end.
$BPSPX < 30, bottom fishing season.

I am short term view guy, I don't even know what tomorrow will bring let alone predict 3 months out, That is way above my pay grade.

[BullBear52x]

From " It is what it is department" Key focus A Dead cat bounce! it is very self explanatory that last week was a disaster for the market, historic moment we live in. market is down however you look at it. lets focus on what will pay in coming week. a daily Hammer outside of the bands/Channels (BB or Keltner) increase the liability on this candle substantially, on top of that is TRIN < 1, very bullish short term especially for the early bird Buy counter trend setup.

My playbook, Cash SPX Fib, Bears are under dogs below 38.2% keep it simple. a rebound from here can only be seen as a dead cat bounce until we can regain above 61.8%.

Short term trend is down, rip will be sold. going into next week I am expecting an over sold relief pullback, short term trend key resistance is 5DMA until then rip will be sold.

Bonus chart key support and resistance level that I will follow closely, 3 unfilled gaps last week, one will have to refill soon. 3000 is psychological Pivot, for short term or long term this will be the level to talk about in years to come.Plan your trade and trade your plan, Peace!

[tsf]

Thank you everyone for your excellent posts this weekend.

BB52x,
What parameters do you use for your Fibs?
Thank you.

[Heck]

SPY 1.9 % Dividend Yield

$TNX 1.12 % ATL Earrnings/Price Yield

1/.0112 = 89 Price/Earnings Ratio

BULLYAH

[Harapa]

Those intrigued/enticed by pBars may see a value. Various lines will serve as a support or resistance, IMHO.

[Al_Dente]

Another chart from the vault.
This is a DAILY chart of the 1987 crash.
Note that two days before the crash, Thursday October 15, SPX closed just a hair under the 200sma (red box).
The day before the crash, Friday October 16, SPX was well below 200sma and the RSI was already in EXTREME OVERSOLD territory
and ripe for a bounce.
On CRASH DAY, Monday October 19, SPX GAPPED down more than -20% and the rest was history.
Many lessons to be found here, two are: 1) EXTREME OVERSOLD RSI does not guarantee a bounce, and 2) Intraday only with no overnight holds, as BrassBalls52x trades, sounds compelling after pondering this chart ….

[Heck]

MARKETS YTD
Gold: 3.83%
Bonds: 3.46%
US Dollar: 2.16%

Dow YTD
Microsoft [2.7%]

SPY YTD
L Brands [19.5%]
Regeneron [18.4%]
ServiceNow [15.5%]
T-Mobile US [15%]
NVIDIA [14.8%]
MSCI [14.4%]
Netflix [14.1%]

QQQ YTD
Tesla [59.7%]
Regeneron [18.4%]
T-Mobile US [15%]

MID YTD
Taubman Centers [67.5%]
Legg Mason [38.7%]
SolarEdge [31.2%]
Etsy [30.5%]

IWM YTD
Novavax [302%]
Aduro BioTech [158.5%]
La Jolla [73%]
Community Health [70%]

Commods YTD
Solar [18.4%]
Gold [3.8%]

[Harapa]

Yesterday ES gained 100+ points past 3:45 EST

[Heck]

NTB Target + 111 %
From 27.25 to 57.62
+ 6.35 % Bermuda Dividend

19.18 % ROE

[tsf]

Another chart from the vault.
This is a DAILY chart of the 1987 crash.
Note that two days before the crash, Thursday October 15, SPX closed just a hair under the 200sma (red box).
The day before the crash, Friday October 16, SPX was well below 200sma and the RSI was already in EXTREME OVERSOLD territory
and ripe for a bounce.
On CRASH DAY, Monday October 19, SPX GAPPED down more than -20% and the rest was history.
Many lessons to be found here, two are: 1) EXTREME OVERSOLD RSI does not guarantee a bounce, and 2) Intraday only with no overnight holds, as BrassBalls52x trades, sounds compelling after pondering this chart ….

crash1987.png.png

Thank you, Dr Al, for the lessons and for debunking some RSI beliefs

[tim-follows]

Yesterday ES gained 100+ points past 3:45 EST

yes Harapa, i was trying to recoup some premium on intraday weekly call options and missed the 1.00% rally that exploded ten seconds after cash closing bell Friday.

Fed Chief had spoken already, 20 minutes prior.

Anyone know who was buying , or trying to paint a picture, or setting up for Sunday night intervention?

I saw some likely reversal setups on 3hr, 8 hour and 12 hour bar charts that point to a 2-4 day rally towards 3160 SP futures, but need asian Monday session to confirm.

[Harapa]

Anyone know who was buying , or trying to paint a picture, or setting up for Sunday night intervention?

PPG at work...tonight, futures will confirm or refute...

[tim-follows]

Anyone know who was buying , or trying to paint a picture, or setting up for Sunday night intervention?

PPG at work...tonight, futures will confirm or refute...

weekend forex brokers puts dow down 2% as USA concedes first corona fatality https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-i ... all-street

Paris Louvre closes, Italy cancels soccer matches and quarantines an entire team, and Turkey plays chicken with Syrian immigrants versus beginning WW3 by citing article 5 of Nato toward nato members.....scarcity of bullish headlines this weekend.