Weekend Watering

[99er]

Good Morning.

Bears should have a good time next week. The EURUSD currency pair, currently bid at 1.3384, appears set to resume its decline within a down channel (gray) as suggested by a bearish butterfly (yellow). Prices may indeed break through a possible neckline (gold) at around 1.3218; a Wolfe Wave (purple) targets 1.3060. This would likely knock equity prices off their perch, as illustrated by the weekly DWCF chart re-posted here: note the Doji being squished by trend lines.

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eurusd_10.html

DWCF http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/dwcf.html

Have a nice weekend!

[cougar]

Hello 99er!
Nice charts ! I am now reading more an the Wolfe Waves and I’ll be able to follow some of your thoughts better. All I knew about them was a brief chapter by Linda Raschke, who was quite impressed with their results!

Something that I did not expect: VIX fell under the Acceleration Band during the last minutes of trading on Friday…

[cougar]

Hello 99er!
Nice charts ! I am now reading more an the Wolfe Waves and I’ll be able to follow some of your thoughts better. All I knew about them was a brief chapter by Linda Raschke, who was quite impressed with their results!

Something that I did not expect: VIX fell under the Acceleration Band during the last minutes of trading on Friday…

In the recent past, when it did that, it stayed there for a while before rebounding violently…
Such rebounds were usually initiated by an overnight VIX gap up.

[99er]

Hi cougar. Thanks.

Updates

ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/es_10.html
NQ http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/nq.html

[BullBear52x]

Hello 99er!
Nice charts ! I am now reading more an the Wolfe Waves and I’ll be able to follow some of your thoughts better. All I knew about them was a brief chapter by Linda Raschke, who was quite impressed with their results!

Something that I did not expect: VIX fell under the Acceleration Band during the last minutes of trading on Friday…

In the recent past, when it did that, it stayed there for a while before rebounding violently…
Such rebounds were usually initiated by an overnight VIX gap up.

Nice chart Cougar about VIX and Welcome back 99er.
Last minute VIX and last hour candle should give bear some quicky. well I am still hold on my core short position in SSO and EDC, luckily I got in at higher point than today's close so I can relax, let me pull up some charts I will do my post soon, today got to put up some lights to welcome Santa rally

[stlwater]

Aren't we ignoring the EUR/USD's most obvious pattern in development? That being a bullish flag? Perhaps we retest that flag breakout by dropping a bit lower, suck in some hungry bears, before heading higher. Seems to be a pattern well enjoyed by this currency pair. As a matter of fact, a retrest of that broken upper flag trendline would coincide nicely with the 1.31 low

[Al_Dente]

PAGING Baron von BullBear
Please take your 1 minute SPY chart, overlay your DBV on top of SPY, open up the 1 minute to 10 days and watch DBV weave around SPY like a tapestry, then open the 1 min up to 20 days and see. Then, when you put your eyeballs back in their sockets, please post and tell me what you think.

5 minute video clip of Steve Jobs explaining “Cloud Computing” FIFTEEN YEARS AGO.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE3Ta_NK ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47TGXJoV ... ure=relmfu

[cougar]

Thanx BullBear!
I am trying to widen my technical horizon by adding ellipsoids on some charts. In doing so, I obviously take advantage of the wisdom offered on this blog by the posts of Grand Master Uempel.

On this "experimental" daily SPX, a Fibonacci Harmonic Fan is accompanied by an ellipse. They were both designed to accommodate the essential moves since July 1st of last year.
Since the early Spring of 2011, the volatility of SPX increased progressively, as reflected in the oscillations of MACD and Empirical Mode. Since then, 3 of the 4 points of intersection between arc lines and ellipse marked “reversal at resistance” events for SPX.
A 5th point is happening right now and could be a “supportive event”. SPX broke out of the ellipse on Dec 2nd and soon did that spectacular down reatracement which we witnessed on Thursday…It found support at 1231.47.
There it encountered the crossing of fan & ellipse, enforced by the MAW(34, magenta).

Aren’t you curious to see what happens next?

[stlwater]

Wow, that is strange.. However my chart doesn't look back 20 days.. what are you seeing? This is bizarre. On my chart it looks like it's showing clear support/resistance lines... How did you happen to stumble onto this?

PAGING Baron von BullBear
Please take your 1 minute SPY chart, overlay your DBV on top of SPY, open up the 1 minute to 10 days and watch DBV weave around SPY like a tapestry, then open the 1 min up to 20 days and see. Then, when you put your eyeballs back in their sockets, please post and tell me what you think.

5 minute video clip of Steve Jobs explaining “Cloud Computing” FIFTEEN YEARS AGO.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE3Ta_NK ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47TGXJoV ... ure=relmfu

[cougar]

PAGING Baron von BullBear
Please take your 1 minute SPY chart, overlay your DBV on top of SPY, open up the 1 minute to 10 days and watch DBV weave around SPY like a tapestry, then open the 1 min up to 20 days and see. Then, when you put your eyeballs back in their sockets, please post and tell me what you think.

5 minute video clip of Steve Jobs explaining “Cloud Computing” FIFTEEN YEARS AGO.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE3Ta_NK ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47TGXJoV ... ure=relmfu

Thanx Al Dente. Very nice!

[BullBear52x]

OK here's what I got, looking back on same chart I posted last week (weeks back)Target #6 is getting weaker, not a smooth sailing as I would hope to see but not too bad either after Friday bull action.

these charts are showing some resistance keys, top=1 std (20BB) mid=HEIKIN ASHI bottom= 200MA very important good risk/reward for both Bulls and Bears alike.

Trend or No Trend. based on HL and LL it's down trend, based on my 5DMA it's a starting point of up trend.

Fib fan last spike high on Thursday and good support at 38.2% tells me up trend is intact. Friday RSI back up on Bulls side, would be nice if it can move higher over my red dotted line.

Yellow lines as usual for the closing statement, neutral screaming buy closing above and vise versa if closing below. keep it simple price pay.

[BullBear52x]

PAGING Baron von BullBear
Please take your 1 minute SPY chart, overlay your DBV on top of SPY, open up the 1 minute to 10 days and watch DBV weave around SPY like a tapestry, then open the 1 min up to 20 days and see. Then, when you put your eyeballs back in their sockets, please post and tell me what you think.

5 minute video clip of Steve Jobs explaining “Cloud Computing” FIFTEEN YEARS AGO.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yE3Ta_NK ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=47TGXJoV ... ure=relmfu

Thanks Dr. Al, I got to run, will check on them some times tonight, here's my internals that set up to fit my speed all derive from your original setting. I will monitor them side by side, I zoomed up the legends if you're interest.

[99er]

Updates

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/copper_10.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/crude_10.html

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/gold_10.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/silver_10.html

Dollar http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/dollar_10.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/30y_10.html

More tomorrow. Have a great day!

[dcurban1]

My biggest worry is the Nasdaq lagging the Dow on this leg up. The Nasdaq should be leading the rally not lagging.

[BullBear52x]

Paging Dr. Al Re:SPY/DBV
I will have to say that you just help me getting stronger, this could be something good. lets monitor it some more but so far I like what I see, I left the chart in chart book on 1min/1month, over 20 days are all the same I think, well, good find and thanks. got to go now, I think the boss just called. have a great weekend.

[BullBear52x]

My biggest worry is the Nasdaq lagging the Dow on this leg up. The Nasdaq should be leading the rally not lagging.

My bias is down for now, but my stop is not that far out either.

[Al_Dente]

Thanks 99er, I really like the weekends when you have a little more time to explain yr charts.

Thanks cougar. Re VIX: I’m trying to figure out if your acceleration bands are cousin to Bolingers or Headleys or your own secret creation? To me it looks like VIX could go to 25.50 ish ish ish, where it would touch/pierce your yellow envelope (and pierce its lower bolinger again) before turning. Your VIX Rsi and Bob are quite oversold; but glance at one of my intradays showing how/where she could go a bit lower intraday before a bounce (note pink arrows). Also note that this particular STO tweak is on VXX, where it works a bit better for me, and the VIX is faded behind it. Also note that Friday’s trendline on VXX/VIX is unsustainably steep, and will demand a correction either horizontally or by bouncing soon. (Yes indeed, I saw your note: “In the recent past, when it did that, it stayed there for a while before rebounding violently…” etc)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p= ... =243526920

Coincidentally, one of the only MACDs I use anymore is the 3,10,0 setting from Linda Raschke and others, here shown on top of gold. I find it a quite useful “tell”, no? (The shading behind gold is roughly based on Cobra’s use of envelopes). PS: if that is a continuation triangle on gold, then she may very well continue soon (she’s on the Al Dente daily sell signal at the moment).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD& ... =250706739

PS: I like that “Grand Master Uempel”. I’m mad at him at the moment, because instead of posting here weekends, he usually posts charts over on discus/cobra’s main page where I can’t read them as well.

Hi stlwater: aren’t you the guy/gal who was going to run backtests on swing/trend following strategies, and we yakked about Robert Colby for a millisecond? Any decent results u can share?
I’ll post more on DBV as soon as BullBear52x looks at it and posts (I got DBV from him).
Also more later on BB52x stealing my charts and making them look prettier.
Okay I just saw BB post his DBV. Did y’all read where he said old Al helped him “get stronger”. Yea, who's your daddy now? But more later.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYqOnUU- ... re=related

[stlwater]

Yar, we did. I am running back-tests now on a number of different idea. Some look promising. Nothing to report yet.

Hi stlwater: aren’t you the guy/gal who was going to run backtests on swing/trend following strategies, and we yakked about Robert Colby for a millisecond? Any decent results u can share?
I’ll post more on DBV as soon as BullBear52x looks at it and posts (I got DBV from him).
Also more later on BB52x stealing my charts and making them look prettier.
Okay I just saw BB post his DBV. Did y’all read where he said old Al helped him “get stronger”. Yea, who's your daddy now? But more later.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYqOnUU- ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

Here’s my preliminary DBV et al study over a 20 day period on the 1 min SPY timeframe
(stochcharts only offers a maximum 20 days look-back on any 1 min chart).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =250649703

I’m looking specifically for intraday “tells” of interim tops and bottoms via positive/negative divergences, indicated by the arrows (red arrows show divergences nailing SPY tops, and greens point out divergences at intraday bottoms).
To summarize briefly, over a 20 day period/1 min, I found that UDN (inverted U.S. dollar ETF), pointed to interim tops/bottoms a total of 14 times, while TNX noticed 12, VIX saw 11, and DBV called out 6 tops/bottoms.
I thereby respectfully suggest that those of you who are dismissing the U.S. dollar as an intraday indicator might be ignoring one of many powerful signals. The dollar sometimes diverges for days on end, but it eventually re-aligns with SPY and as you can see, it’s a decent intraday indicator these days. Yes, UUP/UDN, albeit fine ETF trading vehicles, do suck as a dollar proxy, but so far they’re the best we’ve got as stockcharts only gives us $USD as end of day EOD quotes (and yes, I’ve emailed them begging for intraday $USD).

Don’t bother to point out corrections, as it’s still a work in progress, and as I zoom in/out I find and correct mistakes. BUT PLEASE FEEL FREE TO OVERLAY ON SPY 1 min ALL OTHER CURRENCY and currency-proxies and pairs you like, and find us one that is more sensitive to SPY. So far the only one I’ve found (other than UDN and DBV) that comes close is $XAD, that’s right, ye-olde commodity-sensitive (?) aussie dollar !!
Also note that Al’s “lookback” is eyeballs only and not any sophisticated computer test.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_gSydN_ ... re=related

[cougar]

Hey Al!
Yes, I see what you mean…Nice VIXX chart!

The Acceleration Band is built according to calculations similar those of other envelopes. It is only slightly faster. I got it from a friend, in Trade Station Easy Language format. The trick is to fit its length (L) to the average acceleration of the underlying entity. In this case L=18 and it is not displaced in time. It accepts easily moves out of it, but reentry becomes significant. On my 130 min chart back-tests are already there, as one can see. How did I know that when the VIX trip started this spring? It’s because I did the back-tests on previous time ranges of high volatility and not on the BS of QE2, when, obviously, nothing worked on VIX.
One more thing: the time displacement of envelopes is an important subject, per se. To get an envelope synchronous to the price movement one should delay it by (L-1)/2 units. In this case this is not done, intentionally.

Here is another variant of that gold triangle... GLD is also entering the zone of a minor time cycle low…
IMHO: GLD might drop slightly out of the triangle and under MAT(138, blue) but it will bounce soon. It already did something like that at the cycle low of Jan 27 2011.

But, let us move to the weekly chart and ask first a very indiscreet question: in the present atmosphere of general mistrust, what will happen when some “people” might figure out that the bullion that they hope to control via futures or ETF-s is not exactly where it is supposed to be???
Perhaps…we drop big time, under all three MA-s levels of support, into the new nest of lows of the first days of Feb. If that drop is really big this would signal a transition to an EXTREME LEFT-TRANSLATION of the Weekly Large Time Cycle (yellow).