BEARS: Long term food for thought
The Long Term “Disparity Index” chart is based on the old Fosback theory that when you compare a narrow-based index or “glamour” index like the Dow 30 with a more broad-based index of stocks, any disparity or divergence that appears will eventually be resolved in favor of the broad based index.
In this chart I used $INDU (30 stocks) compared with $NYAD (which Fosback originally used) and compared to the $WLSH our broadest based index (5,000 stocks). Then I added the Hang Seng Index on the notion that China has been our global leader over the last decade.
When Fosback tested his theory all the way back to 1928 he found disparities can persist for 7-14 months before resolving in favor of the broad based index.
Please note on this chart that we are in approximately month 11-12 of a bearish disparity.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU& ... =250791110
Challenges from the board are welcomed.
[Source material: “Stock Market Logic” by Norman G. Fosback]