04/21/2012 Weekend Discussion

[Cobra]

Institutional accumulation and distribution chart is clear in distribution.

Liquidity chart (also from stocktiming.com) shows lower low, I never paid attention though whether the liquidity chart lower low leads the market, so keep in mind here, let me observe this in the coming weeks.

[Cobra]

it seems heavy put/call ratio on SPY for the front month is bearish since 2010. The topic is coped from here: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/comme ... &obspage=2

[Cobra]

opinions are neutral doesn't mean the market is bullish.

[Cobra]

Retailers are bearish, it seems.

[Cobra]

Newsletter writers are mostly bullish.

[Cobra]

smart money is short.

[grachu]

cobra did you hear about the ECB and the additional injection of $$$ ( yesterday after the close ) would you consider maybe monday bullish ( I hope I am long appl)

[Al_Dente]

The interesting thing about bubbles is that we NEVER really know when they will pop.
Here was the upside of one of our oil bubbles, with chart cut off at 2008.
I recall when oil hit $140 that some analysts were predicting $250 bbl.

This was the upside part of the China bubble, with chart to 2008.
I forget what analysts were predicting at that time, but the bubble was certainly justifiable based on China’s obscene growth rate.

This is AAPL as of yesterday, and a few analysts are predicting AAPL $1000 before it pops.

AAPL is such a monster gorilla that its earnings report on Tuesday after the close (good or bad) will doppler across all stocks and indices.
So consider hedging if you are holding ANYTHING AT ALL beyond Monday’s/Tuesday's close, as all holdings (long or short) will be a bet on AAPL,
and the odds are arguably 50/50.
Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to be happy and solvent by Wednesday.
http://screencast.com/t/s4TYbrtWv

"…You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something … destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life…." [Steve Jobs, Stanford University commencement address, June 2005]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ldt6f7gleDI

[Al_Dente]

PAGING Baron von BullBear1x
could u please re-post your chart from yesterday with oil on top and spx on bottom
(40 magic number…something…something…u kno the one I mean?)
If you could link it with “legends” open, so I could just totally steal it, I would be eternally grateful……

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdlz6Qzy ... re=related

[kamukak]

If Sarkozy does not win outright in 1st round election this weekend then We are gaping down big time. Thats my take on the market. Market want a excuse to go down!

[Harapa]

My long term and intermediate term models remain in buy mode, however, short term model triggered a sell EOD FRI. I will be looking to close this position on Monday. Last trade will produce a loss as long as the sell price is below $59.10. I will update STATs for this setup once the trade has been closed.

[Cobra]

it seems heavy put/call ratio on SPY for the front month is bearish since 2010. The topic is coped from here: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/comme ... &obspage=2

Here's my guess on how they get the heavy put call ratio on the front month. I think they calculated the open interest:

I added all the call open interest and put open interest via excel, so it's 3881133 / 1262275 = 3.074 which indeed heavily on the put side for May.

[Al_Dente]

Anyone have any comments on gasoline $GASO (thanks to Cobra) and its penchant for telling $SPX where to go?

[Jcantrade]

Vix and vxx call/put ratio surged Friday. Big down coming?

[Al_Dente]

“Facebook Targets May 17th For IPO Date”
http://techcrunch.com/2012/04/18/facebo ... -ipo-date/

[TraderGirl]

There are two turn dates this week, Monday and Wednesday. The turn can happen anywhere from Tuesday afternoon to Thurs morning..I am favoring the earlier time frame, possibly Tues afternoon...?? Depends on wave structure, technicals...

Option 1. So, I had thought we would be up on Monday, and if we are, then Weds is FOMC, and it may set off a good sell off for 2-3 days.

Option 2. In the case we are down Monday and Tuesday, and we get a new low, then I would expect that would be a good buy signal.

But I am favoring Option 1, only because there is a Jupiter/Venus aspect in the beginning of the week, as well as a Sun trine Mars, which are very positive. Then there is a Mercury Pluto square on Wednesday and that is negative. When the market is in full bull mode, astro's don't have too much affect, but when the market is sensitive and unsure of direction, the astro's can give better indication of direction.... GLTA!!!

[xfradnex]

Anyone have any comments on gasoline $GASO (thanks to Cobra) and its penchant for telling $SPX where to go?

The attachment 421gaso.png is no longer available

DrAl. It looks like the SPX can also provide indicators of Gas direction (SPX says that gas usually rises from the rear ).

[essessme]

uempel here's an oval with a leading edge turn - lagging edge 15:00 -15:30 Monday

[BullBear52x]

PAGING Baron von BullBear1x
could u please re-post your chart from yesterday with oil on top and spx on bottom
(40 magic number…something…something…u kno the one I mean?)
If you could link it with “legends” open, so I could just totally steal it, I would be eternally grateful……

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdlz6Qzy ... re=related

If you talk about this chart, well, nothing just a price nothing special to steal here. another thing....this is a warning, it's 52X not 1X that's different ya no? no flower tip for you.

what you want to see is a somewhat bottoming in DBV, wonder where are all these money came from

SPX is not so fresh

[BullBear52x]

Thanks Cobra, great weekend report and I like everything you posted here.