07/26/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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It's a triangle but I think bias is down because it tested the lower boundary much more time than the upper boundary.

[JFR]

ES daily. Inside bar. Still in the very wide base since June. Backsliding slowly for 3 days. Above the EMA 20.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes. The trading range is getting tighter. At this time it is between the Pivot and S1. Beneath the EMA 20.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Very nasty chop. "Let's be careful out there."

[cletus]

Cletus open:

1. More up on the indices
2. Crude is running with room to run higher

[BullBear52x]

Open will be inside day still. I will use Friday LOD as a pivot.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Testing down.

[Daniel]

1. More up on the indices 2. Crude is running with room to run higher

At the OR-15 the indices are weaker, with QQQ leading to the downside. SPY and IWM are also at the low of the 15-min range. Perhaps a good spot for a low-risk long, expecting a rangebound day today.

XLE is again the rs leader. Financials are surprisingly strong, given the kaboom back UP in tlt.

Copper is outperforming semis so far today. Dr. Copper and Dr. Semicons.

..update: financials finally giving way, now testing lod

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/07 ... ay-update/

[Daniel]

$XBD lod, $VXN hod. This is bearish for the rest of the day unless it reverses.

[Mr. BachNut]

The NYMO cycle is UP.
However, we hit the upper Turn Zone just as price hit the middle keltner band.
With upper Turn Zone hits, we look for a change in character (price reversal, consolidation, or blast off).
It kinda looks like consolidation so far as NYMO corrects toward the zero line.
There is a bunch of upcoming news events this week. So, who knows what will happen. (not me... )

Price fulfilled the edge set at the June lows to tag the middle keltner. (See prior posts.)
Perhaps that is it for the Bear rally. Perhaps not. Within a bear market context, price can rally further, but a tag of the upper keltner is unlikely.
The upper keltner crossing below the 200MA is further confirmation that we are in a bear market.
Price remains comfortably within the marked bear channel.
Bulls need to tag the upper keltner to start shifting the bias.

We have three open down gaps a fair distance below us and eight above.
One of the up gaps is about 5 handles above Friday's high. Mr. Market may want to go ahead and close that one.

I remain long SPX and R2K but have scaled out profit units down to runner positions.

[Daniel]

From Briefing.com
"The July Consumer Confidence reading was 95.7 (Briefing.com 96.4) versus the prior revised reading of 98.4 (from 98.7) and the June New Home Sales totaled 590,00 (Briefing.com 670,000) versus the prior revised total of 642,000 (from 696,000)."

Since this econo-weakness was released, TLT has actually come off its lod.

[Daniel]

$XBD lod, $VXN hod. This is bearish for the rest of the day unless it reverses.

XBD now off its lod, but VXN is still pressing its high.

[JFR]

SPY 5. Price action.

[brokebybernacke2]

Cletus open:

1. More up on the indices
2. Crude is running with room to run higher

longer term, markets cannot go higher with high oil prices. oil needs droppin

[Trades w 2 Cats]

[Trades w 2 Cats]

OK, I added S&P on left side.. On paper, as the economy slows both crude and equities should be dropping. Crude from demand destruction and equities from reduced demand for product.

Central bankers tried substituting cheap money for cheap energy to do their part in reaching zero emissions. That did not go so well. If you recall all the statements from Aunt Janet about no new loans for oil field discovery.

[Al_Dente]

Puts are being bought
Circa 3937 is the neckline of a little H&S

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Pretty clear when the EU announced that they would all use 15% less Nat Gas this winter if storage doesn't fill. I know how popular rationing is with the general public. Remember Jimmy Carter in his sweater telling us all to turn down our thermostats and drive 55.

[Cobra]

The breakdown is a little bit late for a downtrend day but let's see how the downtrend day goes. A down from open to close has been rare though.