05/04/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Gap down open below yesterday's low but the normal NFP day pattern is to open low go higher so I'm not sure if the gap will be filled or not.

The Global ES certainly doesn't look beautiful, it's H&S Top break down, then consolidated below the neckline making the breakdown solid, and now break down below the consolidation area, so really not good looking.

[Al_Dente]

Good morning

Facebook/Morgan Stanley “roadshow” is scheduled to start Monday
Here's a video of the show: http://facebook.retailroadshow.com/launch.html
Also, click “prospectus” on the front page to get the latest prospectus dated May 3, 2012.
This is the FIFTH amended prospectus, has Q1 2012 financials (with earnings decline) and update on the Yahoo lawsuits.
IPO price estimate $28 - $35 per share (depending on demand/oversubscription, etc.)
[Just for fun: calculate the PE ratio at different price points…]
nasdaq symbol will be FB
starts trading on or about 18 May

[Al_Dente]

The equal-weighted Qs were trying to hold steady, and we attributed the tech weakness to AAPL
Now see the serious weakness in the equal-weighteds also (gold line behind Q), from yesterday.
Not good for Q…

[SWalsh]

Gap down open below yesterday's low but the normal NFP day pattern is to open low go higher so I'm not sure if the gap will be filled or not.

The Global ES certainly doesn't look beautiful, it's H&S Top break down, then consolidated below the neckline making the breakdown solid, and now break down below the consolidation area, so really not good looking.

Employment was weak: http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull ... &lid=0#top

The most likely saying at the Fed is "WE CAN'T STOP NOW".

I know a number of doctors. The seeds of destroying the greatest system of healthcare in the world have already been planted. Even if the republicans win all three branches of government that will not change. Our military is being decimated and we are not going to war with Iran, whose majority of people are secularized and like America. The mkt is within striking distance of the all-time high and when you look around housing has collapsed, the job mkt is a dog and has changed, and we are sending entire plants overseas under the "Jobs Czar". We "might" have seen the top as by any fair reading of history, this is a bubble. If they run out of lipstick to put on this pig the results will be ugly. When? Beats me....but I hope people have planned for it. 2008 was a mistake. To think a bill is not coming would be folly. Check please!

If this mkt had regular participants, as opposed to 70% plus computers, this classic TA pattern would be in a book in 3 years as to why the mkt became the greatest bear mkt as the economy got hit. "Benny and the InkJets" know they fear an implosion of debt (default) and deflation they cannot control. Aside from our military, my bet remains that the worst form of intervention in any area is government intervention. And they have been the mkt buyers by proxy just like in the 1920s. All that needs to happen is a rush to the doors to find no buyers. There is already plenty of blame to go around just as all media runs a file on anyone of notoriety in case they drop dead so they can pull it up and report on their death. There a decent chance that the HFT activity and The Law of Unintended Consequences has that B-017 Fortress looking for a runway:

[Cobra]

the open.

[Petsamo]

I don't understand why my Spain is up when everything else is down

[fehro]

lower trendlines...

[Cobra]

we're now in the target area.

[KENA]

The Liquidity had a dn tick yesterday but is still hanging in the higher quaderant..The # of strong stocks are tending dn.

[pezhead9000]

I was hoping analyzing Spy block sales and June options would show the way - I couldn't discern anything concrete

[Carlos]

Will this be 5 waves down. If so we need 1 more down. What will Greece/France elections do to the markets on monday .. more down?

[SWalsh]

lower trendlines...

Don't forget this one:

[TraderGirl]

spx...potential support, today is a turn day.. and next week's energy graph says we go up...

[SWalsh]

I don't understand why my Spain is up when everything else is down

Que? (sorry, that's one of about 10 words of Spanish I know)

[Al_Dente]

Internals 1 min
Right out of the gate trin showed us the dip buyers (blue arrows)
We’ll see how strong they are/aren’t

[ClarkW]

SLV: Inverse H&S on 15min. / Strong move up end of yesterday on heavy volume appears to have some follow thru

[TraderGirl]

Next week could be a big giant short squeeze, we are due a 3 or C wave up, so we can get to 1420 pretty fast....IMHO...

[SWalsh]

As planned and desired, more people reliant upon government. Socialists love this news. Crony capitalism got us here. One Fed governor actually stated that we need to break-up the banks. I wonder if he has Secret Service protection now:

[grachu]

cobra on the 60 minute we are trading outside the BB , and the RSI is going to low... would that prevent us from seeing more down ahead?

[SWalsh]

Next week could be a big giant short squeeze, we are due a 3 or C wave up, so we can get to 1420 pretty fast....IMHO...

We'll find out from looking at the channel, if it holds here, as an alternate count is 1-2-i-ii and hell is about to break loose.