05/05/2012 Weekend Discussion

[Cobra]

Institutions are in distribution (courtesy of stocktiming).

[Cobra]

AAII and II weekly survey.

[Cobra]

Smart money net short.

[Cobra]

the suspicious thing I saw is while the market down huge but big guys were buying like crazy. I don't see this as a reversal sign but certainly worth attention if the trend goes on in the following days.

[Cobra]

Big guys MAY accumulate therefore hedging activities keep increasing. I don't necessarily read the chart as bullish yet but need wait and see, cannot deny big guys MAY accumulate.

[Cobra]

OK, I'm leaving this forum to write my weekend report now, so talk you later.

remember to vote for me here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /147179272;

Enjoy your weekend!

[grachu]

VOTED AND I HOPE I BUY MY NEXT HOUSE ON AMAZON . you deserve it !!!!!:)

[Al_Dente]

Good morning and HAPPY CINCO DE MAYO TO ALL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eY78FtlJ1Zw

Simplistic overlay of the world, money and liquidity.
[if you substitute Shanghai or Hang Seng for $HXC you’ll get quite a different view… other substitutions vary…]

[Al_Dente]

Third week updating that long term volatility chart.
Important only because the last confirmed sell signals were July last year, and took SPY from about 134 ish to 105 ish.
But note between Jan and July last year…. all the bouncing zig-zags and mini pullbacks before the deeper correction.

“The pieces, in general, are just tools for me.”
[Magnus Carlsen, Chess Grandmaster, 21 years old, ranked number one in the world today]

[Al_Dente]

PAGING OCCASIONAL OBSERVER
You’ve noted in the past on the “percent of stocks above 200ma” that “the 200dma has been an excellent demarcation line between bull and bear moves” (roughly paraphrasing you), and I’ve found your signals timely.
It’s not quite grizzly just yet (?)… not sure exactly what it’s saying here (?)… perhaps more bouncing ahead (?)…
Would appreciate your comments…

[grachu]

AL DENTE

so i take from your charts this weekend

1.VOLATILITY STILL does not show bear days ahead?
2.also the DMA 200 seems like we are not crossing there yet, therefore more upside?
3. what is the last chart the RSI on the PAGING OCC OBSERVER message.

thanks

[Al_Dente]

GRACHU
1. All volatility DOES SHOW BEAR SIGNALS on weekly charts NOW (big red boxes).
Just by comparison I pointed out all the bounces Jan to July last year, but seriously, this time may or may not be different ….
as you know, bounces are common to ease oversold conditions… and/or to accommodate bull news like AAPL massively beating eps estimates,
or EUzone surprises, etc…

Worthy of note was the $RVX ($RUT) volatility, which had the fewest bounces last year, LED DOWN this year, and still signals bear now…
And relative-strength ratios show small caps are weakest:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$OEX:S ... =259753241

But note broader view relative strength. The nasdaq which had been holding up the rally this year, has now deteriorated substantially, as have the others:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ ... listNum=15

2. My version of occasional observer’s chart doesn’t show big bear quite yet. I’m hoping he’ll post and clarify for us…
3. Bottom panel was default RSI-14 but your favorite ob/os [edit: overbought/oversold] momentum indicator I’m sure works just as well.

Thanks grachu, GL2U and Happy Cinco de Mayo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qrv8dYDZlQQ

[PS: I see more room on the downside (IMHO), but I will flip on a dime if SPY tells me to…]

[BullBear52x]

Trend or no Trend? bears got an upper hand right now or is it? I'll be bakkk with IWM deep thought analysis that you can only get from this great site, for now, got to drive the boss around first.

[KeiZai]

I see 2 options for this week:

1.down a bit at EU open and bounce up(test of neckline) - may last around 2 weeks, (5th march?)
2.AWESOME bear party event, check the DAX chart

Monday could be really BIG day, so if u can drink gallon of red-bull and make extra money

Maybe its little bit early but nice falling wedge on NUGT - keep an eye on

USD:SPX - macd turning bullish (bearish for stocks)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or1XqD75cNI

[Al_Dente]

I’ve been watching this chart for weeks, and post it now just to see if I can irritate BullBear26x
A few issues with this chart:
1. There is substantial volume support in the yellow zone
2. Anticipating an H&S formation is guessing at best, plus the left shoulder is arguable
3. There is no such formation on $BKX or KBE or KRE, so this helps illustrate the differences between the banking indices and their proxy ETFs
4. It hasn’t broken anything yet
5. The neckline is wanky (red dotted line) and banks will be toast by the time/ IF, IF they reach the neckline to confirm
6. etc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P97-MqCw ... re=related

[KeiZai]

Bullish sentiment edged up after stocks declined, good sign for bears

ENJOY: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1MPmdJ6m ... r_embedded

[Al_Dente]

Interesting visual on yesterday’s NFP: http://screencast.com/t/XOKLP2xJ
Copyright BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics…soooo.... grain-of-salt] via Argus.
Argus analysis [kool-aid]: “…From our vantage point, we are encouraged to see the current level of hiring, given the recent back-tracking in unemployment claims and the cutbacks in government spending. We think the economy remains on track for improved growth in 2012…”

More analyst blabla (this one common info with backtested results: Yale Hirsch, via Schwab’s Market Edge)
“…’Sell in May and go away’ is an old chestnut and a fascinating technical trend…. Discovered by the founding editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, Yale Hirsch, the strategy suggests that one own stocks from November 1 to April 30 and shun stocks from May 1 to October 31. … the returns earned by utilizing this approach are eye-popping. Since 1950, using the DJIA as the measuring stick, buying on November 1 and selling on April 30 each year would have turned an initial nest egg of $10,000 into more than $500,000. In contrast, buying on May 1 and selling on October 31 of each year resulted in a loss of approximately $500….The trend has held in recent years as well… “

“If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.” [Warren Buffett]

I’m off to celebrate Cinco de Mayo with +/- five margaritas
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&featu ... aCjX5TIt5g

[Harapa]

More analyst blabla (this one common info with backtested results: Yale Hirsch, via Schwab’s Market Edge)
“…’Sell in May and go away’ is an old chestnut and a fascinating technical trend…. Discovered by the founding editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, Yale Hirsch, the strategy suggests that one own stocks from November 1 to April 30 and shun stocks from May 1 to October 31. … the returns earned by utilizing this approach are eye-popping. Since 1950, using the DJIA as the measuring stick, buying on November 1 and selling on April 30 each year would have turned an initial nest egg of $10,000 into more than $500,000. In contrast, buying on May 1 and selling on October 31 of each year resulted in a loss of approximately $500….The trend has held in recent years as well… “

Here is an alternate view of this story (ignore my cool aid/comments on the chart). Chart is pretty much self explanatory. S&P was up 14 out of 20 times since 1930 between May-Nov period during the 4th presidential year. Caveat Emptor; 2008 was one of the few years with negative return.

Also check this week's commentary by Tom McClellan on this subject. http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... _quandary/

[ClarkW]

KeiZai: I've been monitoring the metals and goldminers as well. I follow Bill Cara who's been talking about this downturn being followed by a substantial move up. He thinks it might be another couple weeks. On a weekly chart GDX appears to have formed (and broken the neckline) of a complex head and shoulders. Bulkowski http://thepatternsite.com/chst.html as one of the best patterns (3 out of 21). Measured move brings GDX to around $36 but $BPGDX is pretty low, green vertical lines have been drawn for previous times it reached 10 (close to). Also notice one last line of defense regarding Fibonacci Fan.
Currently long AGQ (started position late Thursday around Bullish Bat Pattern Target) but also long TZA, SMN, SDS

[BullBear52x]

IWM: Last gap support at 79, trade lower will tag a screaming sell.
See long term support and Fib all suggest lower to 76ish.

On hourly chart I see nothing suggest a buy

Do or die here for IWM bulls.