12/23/2023 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 8 weeks in a row, the next week has 20% chances to close up, 60% chances to make a higher high.

[theRASPYone]

Thanks for response on the 'This Bull shall have Legs' interpretation!

Looks like decent chance of higher high and somehow good chance to close in Red. So, maybe it makes a higher and high and sells off? That would ruin the Santa Clause rally? whoa! I'm guessing that might happen, and my guesses aren't the best!

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Most of the longer term stuff pointing out we are at a top. Everybody is in, sentiment with both the funds and individuals is at extreme high they are saying.

Fed is going to be very careful here, because it is 2008 all over again, but different. This time it isn't your cousin buying rental houses, it is the banks and their Commercial Real Estate loans. Newsfeed today that the second tallest building in LA just sold for around 145 million. A 45% discount from the last time it sold which was 2014. Someone just ate a very large loss.

Now we are seeing forecasts that they will have to accept inflation at 3% long term. So the paper losses on all that government paper in the held for investment category on banks balance sheets is stuck.

Recent charts show banks are under extreme liquidity stress or something similar because they are cutting lending hard and fast.

I was appraising houses for a soon to fail Savings and Loan when Paul Volker nuked the mortgage market, so yes I have the scars that make me biased, but the truth is when everyday credit goes away we do not have record setting economic growth, regardless of presidential pardons.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Let me add that early January market drops can happen, but there is a firehose of liquidity and positioning hitting the market.

Everyone who I follow who counts waves is waiting for a noticeable drop soon, but great uncertainty on the exact spot. They need to see more bars!

[Cobra]

Guys! Merry Christmas!

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Lots of positives.

But, there are uncertainties:

Climbing the wall of worry.

7 day trading range.

New year coming.

Time for a pullback?

This trader accepts either a bull market or a bear market, or a trading range. However I find it easier to swing trade a bull market.

So, bring it on. Bring on 2024.

[JFR]

Season's greetings to one and all.

And thank you, Cobra for your wonderful website, where we can share ideas on the markets.

[Cobra]

Season's greetings to one and all.

And thank you, Cobra for your wonderful website, where we can share ideas on the markets.


clydesdale-wagon-at-grants-farm-don-langeneckert.jpg

Thank you for your contribution. Wish you have a prosperous new year!

[Cobra]

$AAII bull - $AAII bear hit a new recent high but still a little shy of extremes (red line above) so probably still some up rooms.