12/19/2025 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Lower high or not, wait and see. Could also be a triangle which has 51% chances to continue up.

[BullBear52x]

It's clear there is problem on MA resistance level. bulls will not gain a traction until we can move higher, if we can today a triple witching day, it will fly.

[BullBear52x]

Buy/Sell until it fails, Daily trend following suggested Santa is coming early, until it fails....

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:12 am
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/1 ... ay-update/

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Pulled back to around cash session VWAP but the bounce off that seems to be running out of gas.

[BullBear52x]

Intraday: new swing high, it is bullish bias, with that said, Yesterday's HOD need to hold for an up trend day. or chop chop again.

[Cobra]

Lower high? It's the 2nd test of the EMA20, if bulls can hold then likely bears will give up therefore bulls will be much safer today. Key time.

[BullBear52x]

Melting up in motion. it's already been layout that it will be a Merry Xmas. it's Friday. TRADE WELL, see you next year. Peace!

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:10 pm
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/1 ... ay-update/

[BullBear52x]

Chart for the road: the drip up will continue until AAII Bulls/Bears gone negative. odds of probability are favoring the more ups than downs. stick to your process and let it payout, make or break?.........enjoy the Hiliday season, Peace to the world.

[Cobra]

Rising wedge, maybe near apex which means a pullback might be due?

[Cobra]

Pullback as expected. Likely it'll be bought. Dashed black lines are the usual pattern thereafter.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

an exert from a longer post on X by Julie Wade. This is a statistical explanation on the very weird market behavior today.

Why it's "Molasses": There is no "slip." Usually, volatility moves faster or slower than price, creating gaps (opportunities) for Market Makers to slip in and profit. At 0.992x, there is no gap. The price just grinds slowly, tick by tick, through the "goo."

2. The "Slow Kill" for Market Makers

In this state, the "Larpers" and even the pros get frustrated.

No volatility edge: They can't sell premium because vol isn't overpriced. They can't buy premium because it's not underpriced.

Forced Honesty: The Market Maker is forced to hedge every single tick of movement because the Dynamic Barrier and the Structural Barrier are identical. There is no "cushion."

This creates that "slow bleed" drift where the market just floats upward relentlessly without any violent pullbacks.

3. The New Targets (The Grind Up)

Since the friction is effectively gone (1.0x), the market is now purely mechanical.

Cleared Level: You are well above the 2σ level (6879.50).

The Magnet: The market is slowly oozing toward the Structural 3σ at 6899.00 (the top dotted orange line).

Trade Strategy for Molasses:

Do Not Short the Boredom. "Molasses" markets look weak because they are slow, but they are incredibly strong because they are stable.

The Drift: Expect the price to continue this slow, agonizing grind until it tags that 6899.00 target. The "goo" supports the price; it doesn't pull it down.

You are seeing efficient market theory in real-time. Everything is priced perfectly, which is why it moves so slowly.

[Cobra]

So far went as expected. The current pullback should be bought accordingly.

[JFR]

SPY 5 minutes.

Wed down. Thurs up. Friday up.

No big deal there. Play the charts.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:35 pm
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/1 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:53 pm
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/1 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Monday looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377