11/28/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Small gap down below yesterday's low so not sure if the gap will be filled or not.

Global ES might be a Double Top breakdown, targeting 1382 which happens to be the Fib 38.2%.

[Tutti]

Morning all...PM's getting what my friend Ben would call a Rikers Island Wake Up Call this AM...Dollar driven me thinks

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/11 ... ay-update/

[TWT]

SPX: Bears have a potential Double Top bearish set-up pending confirmation by a breaking down of the pivot support at 1397.64

If this is achieved today then the pattern has a target at 1386 provided bulls fail to hold price above the 20 dma = 1393

The alt scenario would be a larger sideways pattern (TZZ) if bears waste this opportunity, but breadth indicators are aligned on their side, hence my short-term bias is bearish.

[TWT]

SPX:

So I have a bearish bias but my preferred scenario remains unchanged since I am expecting just a Fibonacci retracement of the up leg off the November 16 low, maybe with a little luck price will retest the 200 dma = 1384 offering a “nice” opportunity to open long positions.

If my scenario plays out price will unfold a Zig Zag from the November lows hence a wave (C) up should follow the current pullback with a potential length of 66 points.

This scenario is strengthened by the corrective internal structure of the current pattern.

If Bulls are taking a breather and price unfolds a downward corrective pattern then the next battle will be fought first at the 20 dma then at the 200 dma. While on the upside the assumed wave (C) up will find strong resistance in the range 1425 – 1433

For the reasons that I have suggested tons of times I remain sceptical that price has established a major bottom at the November lows, instead I am looking for either:

• A larger Zig Zag in which case once the current corrective rebound is over price could establish THE BOTTOM with a lower low (This scenario will be the frontrunner if price bulls fail at 1433) or

• A flat, in which case price could revisit the September high (or a lower low) followed by a retest of the November lows.

Both patterns are expected to complete the correction off the September high and open the door of the ignition of the intermediate up trend within the “bearish” wave (X) from the 2009 lows.

BUT like it happened last June when “everything” was suggesting a larger corrective pattern price instead fooled most EW investors establishing a major bottom, so at the moment even if, in my opinion, this out come has less chances of being the correct one I cannot rule it out.



Below in the daily SPX chart I highlight the 2 preferred paths:

[pezhead9000]

Home Depot - Call option volume alert

[pezhead9000]

Cisco - Call option high volume alert

[jarbo456]

Cisco - Call option high volume alert

is there a way to screen the inverse PUT:CALL volume?

[pezhead9000]

Options express provides "Calls over Puts" as a graph. Can use their other tools to filter a list by 'large change in option volume' and a few others. Cannot screen by inverse put:call volume.

[ClarkW]

Cisco - Call option high volume alert

I really like these Pez. Thanks for sharing

[Denali92]

While seasonality favors just the re-tracement, the May-June 2012 analog and the current market share a lot of similarities and that scenario would be the 'surprise one' as very few are mentioning it.

What are the similarities?

-Bottomed on opex Friday
-Topped on Tuesday post holiday (at least for some indices like RUT and NDX)
-The opex low came when we were daily OS and in most instances when we are daily OS we re-test the low - and make new lows (May 2012 is an example as is June 2011 and quite a few other periods....)

The only thing that potentially negates this surprise scenario is seasonality..... but then again, everyone seems to be counting on seasonality....

THANKS!

-D

SPX:

So I have a bearish bias but my preferred scenario remains unchanged since I am expecting just a Fibonacci retracement of the up leg off the November 16 low, maybe with a little luck price will retest the 200 dma = 1384 offering a “nice” opportunity to open long positions.

If my scenario plays out price will unfold a Zig Zag from the November lows hence a wave (C) up should follow the current pullback with a potential length of 66 points.

This scenario is strengthened by the corrective internal structure of the current pattern.

If Bulls are taking a breather and price unfolds a downward corrective pattern then the next battle will be fought first at the 20 dma then at the 200 dma. While on the upside the assumed wave (C) up will find strong resistance in the range 1425 – 1433

For the reasons that I have suggested tons of times I remain sceptical that price has established a major bottom at the November lows, instead I am looking for either:

• A larger Zig Zag in which case once the current corrective rebound is over price could establish THE BOTTOM with a lower low (This scenario will be the frontrunner if price bulls fail at 1433) or

• A flat, in which case price could revisit the September high (or a lower low) followed by a retest of the November lows.

Both patterns are expected to complete the correction off the September high and open the door of the ignition of the intermediate up trend within the “bearish” wave (X) from the 2009 lows.

BUT like it happened last June when “everything” was suggesting a larger corrective pattern price instead fooled most EW investors establishing a major bottom, so at the moment even if, in my opinion, this out come has less chances of being the correct one I cannot rule it out.



Below in the daily SPX chart I highlight the 2 preferred paths:

[skittlesmds]

I covered my short ES trade last night at 1394 (too soon) but was able to make almost 3k. I had a little too many contracts anyway (14) - at least for my trading pool of funds.

[Cobra]

the open.

[Al_Dente]

nydec = 2000

[Cobra]

members only update at 9:46 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/11 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

Could find support near here.. orange neckline/light blue channel... the blue Invs H&S doesn't look good here.

[L_T]

Gold, silver, and oil all getting beat down today.

I would like to see USO re-test the 31 area and then see what happens after that for an idea of future direction.

[TraderGirl]

So my weekly chart said we would be down into the 28th, then bounce today...maybe late today, then head back down into the 30th...

[pezhead9000]

Shorted CSCO this morning ... will probably reverse and break triangle to new high

[pezhead9000]

Watching Home Depot (HD)...