07/11/2026 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 54% chances to close up, 76% chances to make a higher high.

So more up.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

April and May were a rocket launch.

Bouncing around without progress since then.

Strong resistance overhead.

Two pullbacks to the EMA 50.

Most recently a pullback to the EMA 20,

There is a case to be made for both the bulls and the bears.

No need to guess. Play the charts.

[JFR]

MarketWatch

What causes this correlation between congressional recesses and the stock market? The most likely reason is the uncertainty that Congress generates. Several studies over the years have found that a company’s stock price tends to be more volatile when it is the focus of legislative activity. That causes its stock price to fall until its expected future return is high enough to compensate investors for the additional risk created by that greater volatility.

IMO, there is also the cruise control effect. No interference from law makers. When the regulators are away, the bulls will play..

[Trades w 2 Cats]

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Goes with what JFR said about congress