12/28/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Huge gap down within yesterday's range, so not sure if the gap will be filled or not.

Key time on Global ES as it's the 2nd test of the previous low so a sharp rebound here would mean the low was in. On the other hand, bears need decisively break the low to claim that they're still in control. Overall, tricky time, although I still think there's not enough time to pass any FORMAL deal before the year end, the best result is to ask for extension so that those law markers can have more show time.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2012/12 ... ay-update/

[cheese]

We will have the SANTA RALLY today during the last trading hour, LOL

[mishka76]

Hi Cobra, if no deal reached on Sun/Mon, whats your target for the drop ?

[Cobra]

DAX hasn't had any pullback for millions of years, so eventually it has to have a little pullback. The question is what if it starts to pullback? Will it put pressure on SPX?

[JFR]

10 minutes until open.
SPY down .98
ES down 8.25

[L_T]

Thanks to daytradingES for an IWM chart interpretation yesterday. I'm hoping between the strength that was shown yesterday afternoon and a continuation above the EMA 20 I will be all right to stay long (for now).

On an unrelated note oil is still looking good here IMHO.

[Cobra]

Hi Cobra, if no deal reached on Sun/Mon, whats your target for the drop ?

Welcome aboard!

I don't know what would happen if no deal reached. DOW dropped 700 points in 2008 when House rejected the $700B bailout plan, a few days later the bill passed but too late the damage was already done.

[Cobra]

the open.

[Out of Bounds]

I'm looking for a good Chicago PMI and a rally that I will then short. A bad PMI and who knows, I won't trade it.

[TradersF]

I'm looking for a good Chicago PMI and a rally that I will then short. A bad PMI and who knows, I won't trade it.

What time does the PMI data come out?
Thanks

[Out of Bounds]

I'm looking for a good Chicago PMI and a rally that I will then short. A bad PMI and who knows, I won't trade it.

51.6 - Now, where's my damn rally?

[Out of Bounds]

I'm looking for a good Chicago PMI and a rally that I will then short. A bad PMI and who knows, I won't trade it.

What time does the PMI data come out?
Thanks

Now. came at 51.6

[rc1269]

I'm looking for a good Chicago PMI and a rally that I will then short. A bad PMI and who knows, I won't trade it.

What time does the PMI data come out?
Thanks

Now. came at 51.6

not good enough to get your rally it would seem

[gappy]

The Cobra warning to Miska above so unnerved me what these nutjobs inside The Loop may reek, I accidently entered 300 instead of 3000 on a order while ago. I better tuck my lizard tail between my legs and sit this kabuki crapola out! I pray to Mz. Bass this morning. May she r.i.p.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwt3kr0_l6I

[Cobra]

to expect a sharp later day again for the 5th time does need some imagination which I don't have.

[fehro]

yesterday's interday gap almost filled.

[Out of Bounds]

short anyway

[Al_Dente]

29 of the dow 30 are red
HPQ is the worst
AXP is the best – it just went red
30 of the dow 30 are red

[Mr. BachNut]

Long.

My composite trend signal remains up. There are just two less sensitive components holding it up, of which only one component needs to turn to flip the signal. So, condition is vulnerable.
My summation index signal is down.

I called an audible on my summation index signal and closed my short yesterday afternoon taking some profits.
I have been looking for a two way trade over this holiday period, and I interpreted the surge off yesterday's bottom as the start of the rally side of the trade.
The overnight action crunched that interpretation.
So, I have a trapped long at the moment.
Also, when you audible out of a setup and it doesn't go your way, navigating the trade gets tough.

So, if we get a rally, I'll resume regularly scheduled programming (which includes putting the summation index short back on at better levels unless the signal gets turned).
If the bear move continues, the long may have to be ejected.

Looking at ES, I am seeing something of a triangle (albeit ugly and ill formed) with lower highs and higher lows. It is a bit far into the snout at this point, but the break may provide some guidance.
As usual, I think the close will be pretty key.