02/23/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Begin with Algo from stocktiming.

Last weekend update, I mentioned Algo had the required negative divergence and overbought, so this week should pullback which indeed. Now the Algo still is above the blue line plus according to stocktrader's Almanac: End of February miserable in recent years, so guess the next week may resume pullback?

[Cobra]

II and AAII. II backed a little, so basically those survey doesn't say anything about the market.

[skittlesmds]

Weekend updates are nice . Thanks Cobra. Hope you have a great weekend!

[Cobra]

The summary of the week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=829&p=119278#p119278

[jademann]

This chart looks like it could be important

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... 7626061106

Sequestration, indecision on more QE at the FED, and gartmore's sell everything call is going to be on Bull's minds next week.
Along with this weeks first lower low for bears in 8 weeks, and now tonight we learn that the credit rating of the UK has been cut, first time ever?

[Cobra]

The stock picks for the next week: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=835&p=119282#p119282

[kenttown]

1. I wouldn't be surprised if markets rallied on UK downgrade. Sounds stupid I know but this market is trading stupid.

2. Gartman reminds me of Najarian's "all cash" call late Dec. Bulls would be rejoicing.

[johnnywa]

This chart looks like it could be important

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... 7626061106

Sequestration, indecision on more QE at the FED, and gartmore's sell everything call is going to be on Bull's minds next week.
Along with this weeks first lower low for bears in 8 weeks, and now tonight we learn that the credit rating of the UK has been cut, first time ever?

Must be from different planet cause that looks to be 30-40+ points up.In fact 15 indicating gap up Monday.

[Royal Flush]

II and AAII. II backed a little, so basically those survey doesn't say anything about the market.

Thanks for your WE updates Cobra. Do you give any significance to the fact that neither II nor AAII has got to the excessive levels of bullish sentiment that has been exhibited in prior years during rallies and at market tops? In other words wouldn't you expect that the market go higher to reach the sentiment levels of prior tops?

[Cobra]

II and AAII. II backed a little, so basically those survey doesn't say anything about the market.

Thanks for your WE updates Cobra. Do you give any significance to the fact that neither II nor AAII has got to the excessive levels of bullish sentiment that has been exhibited in prior years during rallies and at market tops? In other words wouldn't you expect that the market go higher to reach the sentiment levels of prior tops?

Statistics show AAII doesn't matter when it became too bullish.

II may matter when it became too bullish. It was very bullish, now backed a little, so maybe still in effect or maybe means SPX more up. I don't know. Read the weekend report (I'm writing now), you will know what to see if there's more up ahead as early as the next Monday.

[jademann]

This chart looks like it could be important

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... 7626061106

Sequestration, indecision on more QE at the FED, and gartmore's sell everything call is going to be on Bull's minds next week.
Along with this weeks first lower low for bears in 8 weeks, and now tonight we learn that the credit rating of the UK has been cut, first time ever?

Must be from different planet cause that looks to be 30-40+ points up.In fact 15 indicating gap up Monday.

TraderGirl and Bullbear both have the opposite view and they are very well respected traders.

[johnnywa]

This chart looks like it could be important

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... 7626061106

Sequestration, indecision on more QE at the FED, and gartmore's sell everything call is going to be on Bull's minds next week.
Along with this weeks first lower low for bears in 8 weeks, and now tonight we learn that the credit rating of the UK has been cut, first time ever?

Must be from different planet cause that looks to be 30-40+ points up.In fact 15 indicating gap up Monday.

TraderGirl and Bullbear both have the opposite view and they are very well respected traders.

Throw in Italian election.My comment is just what i see looking at chart of course the market never does what one expects

[Al_Dente]

The most bizarre set of indicators on Planet Cobra:
coupon demand
diaper sales
the proceeds from the Napa Valley Wine Auction
men's underwear (rarely replaced)
divorce rates
Hooters hostesses “requires much more extensive field research”
the NFC
and more

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-10-q ... 0.html?l=1

[jademann]

This chart looks like it could be important

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... 7626061106

Sequestration, indecision on more QE at the FED, and gartmore's sell everything call is going to be on Bull's minds next week.
Along with this weeks first lower low for bears in 8 weeks, and now tonight we learn that the credit rating of the UK has been cut, first time ever?

Must be from different planet cause that looks to be 30-40+ points up.In fact 15 indicating gap up Monday.

TraderGirl and Bullbear both have the opposite view and they are very well respected traders.

Throw in Italian election.My comment is just what i see looking at chart of course the market never does what one expects

Absolutely right. In fact the moment I take a position I think what the heck was I thinking?
The one thing that guides me is that the market should never have got this this quick, it is a ponzi sheme for sure.

[KeiZai]

Some quick charts

SPY

XIV : my two (re)shorting spots

Coffee 4 Clark bud

[Al_Dente]

Follow-up on the “% of stocks above 50ma” showing Friday’s bounce lines. For an analog, see the last time the “% stocks” issued sell-top signals:
the bouncing top(s) of Aug/Sept last year (blue box)

[ClarkW]

Some quick charts

SPY

SPY-23.png

XIV : my two (re)shorting spots

XIV-23.png

Coffee 4 Clark bud

Coffee-Clark1.png

Coffee-Clark2.png

MUCHO GRACIAS KEIZAI! Love the charts. So simple in appearance, EW which I know nothing about, and spot on most of the time. Great work!

[ClarkW]

SORRY, NON-TRADING RELATED:

An old Cherokee is teaching his grandson about life. “A fight is going on inside me,” he said to the boy.

“It is a terrible fight and it is between two wolves. One is evil – he is anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority, and ego.” He continued, “The other is good – he is joy, peace, love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith. The same fight is going on inside you – and inside every other person, too.”

The grandson thought about it for a minute and then asked his grandfather, “Which wolf will win?”

The old Cherokee simply replied, “The one you feed.”
Which wolf are you feeding?

[ClarkW]

Good article from Reformed Broker: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/0 ... anciers-2/

[johnnywa]

This chart looks like it could be important

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... 7626061106

Sequestration, indecision on more QE at the FED, and gartmore's sell everything call is going to be on Bull's minds next week.
Along with this weeks first lower low for bears in 8 weeks, and now tonight we learn that the credit rating of the UK has been cut, first time ever?

Must be from different planet cause that looks to be 30-40+ points up.In fact 15 indicating gap up Monday.

TraderGirl and Bullbear both have the opposite view and they are very well respected traders.

Throw in Italian election.My comment is just what i see looking at chart of course the market never does what one expects

Absolutely right. In fact the moment I take a position I think what the heck was I thinking?
The one thing that guides me is that the market should never have got this this quick, it is a ponzi sheme for sure.

Jademan,i bought spy puts at 1513.50 about 20 min before close,15 & 30 min stoch were turning down at i thought 1514 resistance would reject the move.Well 10 minutes later stoch completly reversed and after looking at rsi and stochs after close looks like continued move up Monday morning,hope iam wrong but like you when i question a trade i am usually right after looking at the trade ,and i am saying my puts will suffer Monday.Only hope is UK downgrade and Italian elections.