06/15/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The most important info this weekend is the trial version Non-Stop mode triggered sell today. Normally I'd prefer to wait for one more day in case it's whipsaw.

[Cobra]

Algo from stocktiming still not oversold.

The institutional buying and selling action chart shows more institutional distribution than accumulation.

[Cobra]

Smart money covered a lot but still huge short.

[Cobra]

II and AAII

[Cobra]

Another great week for the weekly stock picks. viewtopic.php?f=10&t=949&p=133702#p133702

[Cobra]

Stock picks for the next week:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=957&p=133704#p133704

[Nrsimha]

The most important info this weekend is the trial version Non-Stop mode triggered sell today. Normally I'd prefer to wait for one more day in case it's whipsaw.

[KeiZai]

SPX: Not sure if we are in another triangle or bigger retrace is ahead but I am leaning toward bigger correction

O: Still watching this potential analogy with lower high : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=947&p=133004#p133004

If we breakdown from the channel we are likely in another triangle

SPY

FTSE: bouncing around neckline, in 1h chart could be inverse HnS forming there, if so very likely US will bounce as well (LH)
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=947&p=133004#p133004

[uempel]

The small triangle on the 5min is bearish, the larger triangle on the daily is bullish. But I noticed a break of RSI support on the daily and that ain't confidence building for bulls... Difficult to assess.

SPX: Not sure if we are in another triangle or bigger retrace is ahead but I am leaning toward bigger correction

O: Still watching this potential analogy with lower high : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=947&p=133004#p133004

The attachment SPX-15.png is no longer available

If we breakdown from the channel we are likely in another triangle

The attachment SPY-15.png is no longer available

FTSE: bouncing around neckline, in 1h chart could be inverse HnS forming there, if so very likely US will bounce as well (LH)
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=947&p=133004#p133004

The attachment FTSE-15.png is no longer available

[Al_Dente]

Folks are now calling WSJs Jon Hilsenrath the “FED mouthpiece” (and leaker)
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/06/ ... TopStories

[Al_Dente]

“June Option Expiration Performance “
"June option expiration can be treacherous for longs. Beginning next Monday, the first trading day of expiration week, DJIA has been down fifteen times in the last thirty-one years with a slight average loss. On expiration day, DJIA has advanced nineteen times over the same time period, but on average, the day also slightly negative, –0.05%. Option expiration week performance overall, matches that of expiration day with more advances than declines, but has the slimmest of a bullish bias. The week after has been disastrous. DJIA has only managed gains in two of the last twenty-three weeks after expiration and has been down fourteen straight. The average loss over those twenty-three years was 1.22%"
[copyright: Stock Trader's Almanac]

[Al_Dente]

QQQ is the weak link.
It is on a LOWER LOW, although Semis are relatively strong.
While SPY, Trans, Smalls, Dow and Banks are all on a higher low, daily (not on this chart).

[Al_Dente]

Tom McClellan sees a gold bottom based on the COT (commitment of traders report)…
“…commercial gold futures traders at an extremely low net short position…”
“…The message here is that commercial traders as a group are convinced that gold prices are heading higher. They usually get proven right, eventually, although sometimes we have to wait around longer than we might wish for ‘eventually’ to get here…”

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... condition/

[joegamma]

Thanks AL: here is his bond comment from McClellan Daily Letter for Friday (MCOscillator,com)

Bond prices moved
upward again and
broken ..... The
shows pieces of data contained
in the COT Report,
.
The “non-reportable” traders
con-
sidered to be the “hot money”
crowd which gets skewed in
the wrong direction at the
wrong time. Right now, they are holding the biggest net short position (as a % of open interest) since the low in June 2008, at
the left end of that chart. And they have moved into that big net short position fairly rapidly, as if they are supremely confident about bond prices presumably heading lower. That degree of certainty among this crowd usually does not go unpunished.

BTW, They are more net short with unchanged price range....
Here is 30TLT, looking to not trade much lower and possibly develop low-volume range toward 11615/11660ishish area....seems middlebox (purpler=CORRspx) is saying it leads (or equity traders a bit slow to grasp what is soon-to-be...) before negativeCORR returns to normalcy,

[kenttown]

[joegamma]

666.png

glad my supestitious side but a couple a puts....

Not a big fan of this, but interesting read, as I was scanning for too much bearish headlines in MSM....
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-q ... e_carousel

[nightlyhawk]

Short-term (for next week): the direction seems to be unclear, but I'm slightly bullish. Even though market closed in red on Friday, NYMO was closed in green. Also, MACD crossed above.

Medium-term (within 2-month): it seems like there are more on the downside according to my MT signals.

[nightlyhawk]

Bullish signals that bears should be watching out for.

[TWT]

SPX: Possible short term patterns

In my opinion we have three possible patterns:

1. From the June 6 low price could unfold a Double Zig Zag with a potential target in the range 1660-1665. This pattern could allow the large bullish Triangle; if the following pullback is corrective and establishes a higher low otherwise a Zig Zag down will be in progress with a potential target in the area of 1570. This option seems unlikely before the FOMC

2. From the June 10 peak price is forming a short-term bullish Triangle. (Positive short-lived reaction to the FOMC). The following thrust will establish the wave (B) of the large bullish Triangle or the wave (B) of the bearish Zig Zag (Potential target in the range 1580-1565)

3. From the June 6 low price is forming a bearish Triangle either wave (B) of the Zig Zag option or wave (X) of Double Zig Zag option (Negative reaction to the FOMC). If the overall pattern from the May 22 high is a ZZ then the target of the assumed wave (C) down could be located in the area of 1550-1446

[TWT]

Bigger Picture:

FED Tapering fears will probably maintain price in a sideways pattern ahead of next Wednesday´s FOMC meeting.

It is an irrefutable fact that from the May 22 high price is unfolding a corrective pattern.

Elliot Wave wise a corrective pattern is defined as countertrends move therefore the intermediate trend is not in danger of being reversed.

Until last Thursday I was confident that price had not concluded the corrective EWP of the advance form the November 16 low, while this scenario is still possible, since the internal structure of the rebound from the June 6 low is not impulsive, it can only be accomplished with a Triangle. Therefore with only one wave in place of the five needed I cannot objectively give too much confidence to this pattern.

In addition both the weekly RSI with the loss the trend line support in force since the November low as well as the Stochastic sell signal and loss of the 80 line are aligned with the scenario of a larger correction. Obviously the admissible doubts will be removed once/if the MACD triggers a sell signal.

Therefore since in my opinion there is not a feasible pattern capable of allowing the immediate resumption of the uptrend from the June 6 low as well as the evident inability of the bulls to reclaim the 20 dma and a bearish cross of the 10dma below the 20dma, we have to remain open minded since the probability of a deeper correction is rising.

If this is the case, even if bulls achieve a larger rebound or if the 50 dma is breached, I cannot rule out a downward correction with a target box in the range 1555 – 200 dma (1501) or not lower than the trend line support from the October 2011 low.

In respect of the long-term EW count I maintain the scenario of the bearish Triple ZZ wave (X) with two options:


1. The final wave (Z) will be established with an Ending Diagonal

2. The last Zig Zag is in progress from the December 31 low