01/07/2013 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

I might enter a short position at 146.10 and definitely increase to heavy at 146.28

[rc1269]

I Think there are 2 factors driving equities: Falling rates, and earnings growth, rates can rise until the risk free rate jumps above avg. dividend yield, so I think a quick sharp rise in rates is certainly not good for equities

from a conceptual valuation standpoint, what is the direct, counter valuation link between the risk free rate and the dividend yeild? i see that comparison quoted often, but the relationship to me appears completely arbitrary. there is nothing in any fundamental valuation methodolody I've ever encountered that suggests a distinct, binary, relationship between the risk free rate and div yeilds.

[Cobra]

not a strong rebound, so EMA20 could be a resistance now.

[Cobra]

just want to remind you the current TLT low is very important, breakdown would be bear market for bond. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /187372788;

Cobra, is a bear bond market good for the equity market?

That depends on inflation. low inflation age, yield goes with equity, high inflation age, yield goes opposite with the equity. For now we're still in low inflation age, so bond drop might be good for equity.

[Out of Bounds]

Martha Stewart on CNBC to talk about MSO. I thought they didn't discuss penny stocks.

[Out of Bounds]

not a strong rebound, so EMA20 could be a resistance now.

Just brilliant.

[Cobra]

pullback as expected. I'm neutral, wait.

[BullBear52x]

Hope it sticks

[Mr. BachNut]

Light long.

I re-established a long equity position Friday to honor my summation index signal.
I kept the size small. Depending on how things go this week, I could buy a dip or not to add table stakes.
I could also close it out as I don't really like this trade.
The risk/return ratio does not look great to me here as there is limited upside into resistance with plenty of downside.

It seems to me that the end of this up trend may be near, but SPX may want to make a run at tagging 1500 (which could fail) before pooping out.

My composite trend indicator signal is up.
My summation index signal is up.

Some idle speculation and evil thinking. NOT A PREDICTION.
While I don't like my long trade and think it will fail, I can imagine a scenario where it works.
It looks like Wells Fargo reports earnings on Friday.
The contribution of financials to SPX earnings growth is outsized. (chart)
If Mr. Market spends the early part of this week teasing bears into shorting this rally, a solid beat by WFC could trigger a squeezy rip to the upside. (Watch XLF.)
Again, I don't know what will happen. Just dreaming...

[gappy]

Manana:

Consumer Credit - M/M change

$14.2 B (prior)

$13.2 B (consensus}

$6.0 B to $15.0 B (consensus range)

[Out of Bounds]

Bought FB 29.38

[gappy]

[quote="Mr. BachNut"][quote="Mr. BachNut"]Light long.


It looks like Wells Fargo reports earnings on Friday.

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:37am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/01 ... ay-update/

[Claudio.dicorato]

This movment zig zag corrective seems going to lower intraday Low... But it push down overbought status... So cobra you Think that could be more up in the next days?

[TWT]

SPX: The wave (A) should be in place. Now I expect a pullback wave (B)

[Cobra]

target, not sure. I'd be happy if Fib 61.8 MM target could be reached.

[BullBear52x]

SMH is now just got the change in trend alert

[BullBear52x]

Bears need to show off power by breaking 145.34 if they mean business.

[flrtrader]

Bears need to show off power by breaking 145.34 if they mean business.

Agreed!! I'm short from friday looking for 143.40 ish to exit

[BullBear52x]

Bears need to show off power by breaking 145.34 if they mean business.

Agreed!! I'm short from friday looking for 143.40 ish to exit

I will take 80% of the lot off and let the other 20% runs, what if the mid line doesn't hold.