01/24/2013 Live Update

[hiram]

Need to channel some Hussman here for a different perspective (my emphasis added): http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130122.htm

Fund Notes

As of last week, the market has reestablished the most negative variants of nearly every “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield” syndromes we follow. Even considering the effect of constructive trend-following measures and continued quantitative easing, we estimate a significantly negative prospective return/risk profile for stocks when the ensemble of present conditions is taken together. With commercial paper yields right near their 10-month average, we know of at least some normally insightful investors who seem willing to hold out for short-term yields to advance 10 or 12 basis points before abandoning a bullish stance. This may very well “keep it simple,” but in view of presently overextended conditions, it also inadvertently risks wandering into “stupid.” Einstein once said that things should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler. My impression is that an overreliance on aphorisms like “the trend is your friend” and “don’t fight the Fed” raises the likelihood of overstaying one’s welcome at the point that overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions (particularly on longer-maturity debt) come into play.

hussman has been on the wrong side of the trade for years now his returns are horrible loves to talk alot but not much in the way of results, i wouldnt put much stock in anything he has to say. i believe managers like him are still in shell shock from the crash and are now afraid to trade not to say he was ever a star to begin with. his growth fund is a huge dog!

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/theFunds.html

click link and see for yourself, low fees dont mean much if your loosing money....


Hiram

Agreed his returns are not very good. I also agree that he seems bearish much of the of time. It is more his perspective of the way things are right now that I was pointing out. If I had $XXXXXX on the sideline and was looking to invest (not a quick trade) this is probably not a great time to do it.

[BullBear52x]

Today 2.5% mark, reminder most people buy at the top and sell at the bottom this is TA fact.

[kenttown]

Dow thru upper BB now

[Xian]

HeHe....

I agree, but it might be a year or two. Unwinding these huge positions takes some time. I'm expecting a bounce before aapl melts away...

Of course nothing goes down in a straight line...this is just my future objective...maybe lower....but it should'nt be 2 years...more likely year and half....

61% fib retracement from the '09 lows are around $319 and 78% fib retracement is around $214...possibly it ends up somewhere in that range eventually...

Currently we have gap support around 444, and gap fill around 425...

TG and Uempel,

If this $300 objective takes approx 1 1/2 to 2 yrs, that's six - eight quarters. Even if growth falls to zero the company will still be generating about 10-15 billion in cash per quarter, isn't this right?

I'm curious because at $300, you'd have a market cap of approx $275-$280 billion. (assuming every $5 billion of buybacks reducing approx 1% of float) and in 2 yrs cash will be at least $200 billion. (Should hit $150 billion next quarter) — this is of course assuming no increase in dividend.

Wouldn't they just take the company private before the price target was met? Wouldn't they have to?

Thanks very much for the great charts (and everyone else too ).

Don't have the courage to short it, think I'll just forget it until Uempel's $440 range comes into view.

[Daniel-David]

Crude Oil futures hitting HOD

[TraderGirl]

Well, XLF hit the upper trendline I showed yesterday...wondering if we see resistance from this point...

Tomorrow is a turn day...eventually the turn days will turn the market down once we hit the right time and price...

[ricster3]

what the fck is going on... no digestion needed.. straight up. can't believe people would buy into this... seems impossible to me. Who buys up here without fearing they're the greater fool ??? jesus

[Al_Dente]

Relative strength
Note that XIV (third panel) is not as excited as SPY today

[Harapa]

I am all eyes on vixies right now, XIV may get that hourly set up sell signal today. it will be fast once they crossed.

No short XIV untill I see red here

[BullBear52x]

I am all eyes on vixies right now, XIV may get that hourly set up sell signal today. it will be fast once they crossed.

No short XIV untill I see red here

Thanks, I use simple ma 21 on hourly, on standard chart, no negative MACD were never a good sell, from that point of view the dip will be short live this time around.

[Al_Dente]

I am all eyes on vixies right now, XIV may get that hourly set up sell signal today. it will be fast once they crossed.

No short XIV untill I see red here

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3re_xqu4ycQ

[Al_Dente]

According to the AAPL eps report, as stated by an eloquent netizen:

“Apple still sold a ton of iShit, including the following in Q1”
47.8 million iPhones
22.9 million iPads
4.1 million Macs
12.7 million iPods”

[Harapa]

Thanks, I use simple ma 21 on hourly, on standard chart, no negative MACD were never a good sell, from that point of view the dip will be short live this time around.

As you may know I like the Stew
I expect to loose on short side this time .

[Cobra]

I don't like this pullback. wait.

[Al_Dente]

So far, this is day three of $VIX non-confirmation
(Again the SPY new high was NOT confirmed by a $VIX new low)
But the day is still young………

[BullBear52x]

Thanks, I use simple ma 21 on hourly, on standard chart, no negative MACD were never a good sell, from that point of view the dip will be short live this time around.

As you may know I like the Stew
I expect to loose on short side this time .

If you shorting XIV, today, yesterday, or tomorrow. you will make money within 3 months. who can predict that type of out come on anything, but on XIV it will be that simple

[Harapa]

So far, this is day three of $VIX non-confirmation

I am sure you won't mess up with the counts, otherwise, I will demand a recount

[jarbo456]

HeHe....

I agree, but it might be a year or two. Unwinding these huge positions takes some time. I'm expecting a bounce before aapl melts away...

Of course nothing goes down in a straight line...this is just my future objective...maybe lower....but it should'nt be 2 years...more likely year and half....

61% fib retracement from the '09 lows are around $319 and 78% fib retracement is around $214...possibly it ends up somewhere in that range eventually...

Currently we have gap support around 444, and gap fill around 425...

TG and Uempel,

If this $300 objective takes approx 1 1/2 to 2 yrs, that's six - eight quarters. Even if growth falls to zero the company will still be generating about 10-15 billion in cash per quarter, isn't this right?

I'm curious because at $300, you'd have a market cap of approx $275-$280 billion. (assuming every $5 billion of buybacks reducing approx 1% of float) and in 2 yrs cash will be at least $200 billion. (Should hit $150 billion next quarter) — this is of course assuming no increase in dividend.

Wouldn't they just take the company private before the price target was met? Wouldn't they have to?

Thanks very much for the great charts (and everyone else too ).

Don't have the courage to short it, think I'll just forget it until Uempel's $440 range comes into view.

I'm not a fundamentalist nor a pure technician, but when you look at an company like AAPL you have to be able to see both sides of the veil. Though rough numbers, Xian's basic investment thesis is the same as I've come up with and read many times over - this company would benefit going private then fall to $300 a share. At the current 10x's current or 8x's future earnings, AAPL is trading at half the S&P multiple, and nearly half of its industry peers. It's generating enough FCF to build a cash position equal to its stock price within a 2-3 year period assuming no growth, no increase in dividends, and no major legal/one time expenses.

The current price depreciation seems to express a market view that not only will AAPL not grow, it will shrink over the next 5 years.

[uempel]

chart is bullish biased.

Bullish? Are you sure

[Harapa]

If you shorting XIV, today, yesterday, or tomorrow. you will make money within 3 months. who can predict that type of out come on anything, but on XIV it will be that simple

That is why my broker doesn't let me. I am forced to buy VXX instead.