03/23/2013 Weekend Update

[TumblingDice]

A pretty reliable intermediate term indicator is the NYMO simple moving average crossover. Over the past three yeas the 50 has crossed the 200 about 10 times, if you don't count the time it crossed over for only a few days or less.When it crosses down there's about 80% success rate of calling some sort of top or another and when it crosses up the signal called for a the trend to be up correctly every time for the past three years.

I was going to backtest this for longer time frames but it seems to be fairly accurate and ThinkOrSwim isn't working ATM. This crossover is quite similar to the one that occurred the last few times... the only way it can cross back up is if we have buying here with good breadth and volume. This would signal that the uptrend is still intact... so any short positions (such as mine) should reverse on a breach back up. Otherwise breadth leads the market and if the 50 keeps trending down then it will be difficult for the market to remain elevated.

[oldpigwang]

Cobra: Why we need to form a negative divergence on Algo from StockTiming?
That mean, currently Spy is in a sideway patten, I would like it to have a big drop then to new high.
But what hint you, Spy is going to have a big drop, for which we need Spy go to new high to have a negative divergence?
Thx.

[TradingJackal]

A pretty reliable intermediate term indicator is the NYMO simple moving average crossover. Over the past three yeas the 50 has crossed the 200 about 10 times, if you don't count the time it crossed over for only a few days or less.When it crosses down there's about 80% success rate of calling some sort of top or another and when it crosses up the signal called for a the trend to be up correctly every time for the past three years.

I was going to backtest this for longer time frames but it seems to be fairly accurate and ThinkOrSwim isn't working ATM. This crossover is quite similar to the one that occurred the last few times... the only way it can cross back up is if we have buying here with good breadth and volume. This would signal that the uptrend is still intact... so any short positions (such as mine) should reverse on a breach back up. Otherwise breadth leads the market and if the 50 keeps trending down then it will be difficult for the market to remain elevated.

Interesting. Looks like it is better at predicting tops. Just what we need! Thanks.

[67Chevy]

Noticed the daily chart of EEM has been holding the dark trend line since June and the dashed line since September. Note the chart is linear, not log, scale.

A bounce here could be nice but if it breaks out on the downside, it could get nasty.

[uempel]

Taggard, frustrating for bears would be an August 2012 scenario. Back then some ratios (see e.g. Gold/SPX) and other indicators flashed sell signals - but the equity market refused to tank and broke to the upside 12 days later. Now, in March 2013, equity momentum is weaker than back in August 2012, but let's not forget that scenario

Check out August 2012 on this Gold/SPX ratio. Break of the green channel was a "sell" - and a dud

In August 2012 SPX formed a small H&S formation and a double top together with April 2012. In addition quite a few SPX indicators were negative. Bears were eyeing 1385 and market shot up to 1430...

Hey Cobra, where is everybody? Are you and I the only fools who don't do anything smart on a Saturday? No playing with kids or garden tools, no shoveling snow or walking the dog? Only staring at charts and trying to predict next week? Kind of stupid, right

uempel if you feel like it could you discuss a bit how you handle situations like that large price action oval chart indicating epic overhead in here? do you just take a position? and if so (or not) how do you size it? not that it matters but my feeling is we are almost there if not there=--but the ideal would be a spike up on a weekly or monthly to closer to 1600 mostly just enough to whack anyone with stops at 1570ish. in your chart you have a nice double oval in 200 that seems to have a spike though it--but largely held. functionally the idea would be "any short term violation would prove the pattern"--thus it would make it even easier to add to the short side.

thank you

Calling tops is a tricky business. Unless it's for lightening up , hedging or daydrading the serious trader doesn't do anything: going against a bull trend is not a lucrative business and mostly a loser's play. If some guy is very savvy he can ride those dips, but it's like surfing down in Portugal where the breakers rise to 100 feet

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nationa ... -1.1250687

If a top is confirmed (e.g. break of 1525/1472) the paradigm changes.

Sorry Taggard, but this is the only advice I'm going to give here...

[uempel]

I have never backtested this observation, but I consider breaks in Zig-zags as continuation signals, i.e. if SPX breaks to the upside at 1563 this should eventually lead to more upside. I'd like to point out: it's a pattern I've seen time and time again, I've never bothered to look at it statistically.

And there's something else which I like about this chart: should a viewer have any doubts about the significance of classical TA this chart might convince him to take a closer look, to read John Murphy's "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" and all the other books and to visit Cobra's forum and blog

[taggard]

thank you uempel for the replies--

it will be interesting to see what happens next week--if someone asked what i wanted (no calls yet) i would ask for a "negative" result on the Cyprus thing. Then for the spx to go up on good news for say 20-100 points based as usual on the idea "dude everything is like chill since Euro Zone doesn't matter" and then after that to get the sell we see so often on a daily chart when a major high (prior day/prior week etc) is reached the first time. if i could have anything it would be for this event to happen over 1570 (partly on short covering and partly on the time honored tradition if "yo . . well they can't get them down so we mite as well take them up".

the idea situation is euphoria--so far we have diligent labored cheerfulness. this would unify all technical fundi and just citizens on one side of the trade. as we learned during the titanic if everyone gets on one side of the life boat--it doesn't work well.

all this would then position you to go into april-june with lame (not terminal) earnings. the euro situation evolving. and hopefully finally the loss in confidence in the whole idea that dumping in 2 trillion a year and getting gdp growth of say -1% to +3% is not a sign everything is ok in a 16 trillion dollar economy.

so trading wise i would love the spx thing from 2012--spikes like these are easy to short because of the--short term distance from mean in this case on a monthly weekly or daily if we get 70 points more to the upside in 7 days. Whatever the outcome if the idea that you can treat a monthy like a 5 min chart works at all--we should know soon if we are going to get the typical sell near the last major high first time up.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x20zsz ... U8MJ1eimBI

Future's So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades
Timbuk 3

I study nuclear science
I love my classes
I got a crazy teacher, he wears dark glasses
Things are going great, and they're only getting better
I'm doing all right, getting good grades
The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades

I've got a job waiting for my graduation
Fifty thou a year -- buys a lot of beer
Things are going great, and they're only getting better
I'm doing all right, getting good grades
The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades

Well I'm heavenly blessed and worldly wise
I'm a peeping-tom techie with x-ray eyes
Things are going great, and they're only getting better
I'm doing all right, getting good grades
The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades

I study nuclear science
I love my classes
I got a crazy teacher, he wears dark glasses
Things are going great, and they're only getting better
I'm doing all right, getting good grades
The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades
I gotta wear shades, I gotta wear shades

[Al_Dente]

“Record Buybacks Creating Massive Float Shrink”

“Bottom line, since the start of February the trading float of shares has shrunk by $120 billion. That translates into an annual rate of over $900 billion and that would compare with $248 billion in total float shrink for all of 2012... Here’s why this is such a big deal. In essence over the last seven weeks companies have given shareholders $120 billion in cash in exchange for shares.... Remember, 80% of US stocks are held by institutions. …When the number of share held by institutions shrinks … that means those institutions have more money with which to buy the fewer shares available in the equity markets. Therefore, the price of the remaining shares should go up….float shrink by itself has correctly predicted market direction in 14 of the last 18 years...”

Charles Biderman, TrimTabs:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296211 ... view&ifp=0

[Al_Dente]

PAGE CLARKW
Friday's gold COT large speculators bullish
[edit: see Cobra's 03/22/2013 Trading Signals for more bla bla]

[Al_Dente]

Top ten (in market cap) “developed” countries, one month performance

In other words:

BRIC

[pezhead9000]

WSJ TSM Money Flow (Last 12months)

The intuition behind money flows is that "For every buyer there's a seller, but they may not agree on price, so it's the urgency of the purchase or sale that's the determining factor: that's what encourages the uptick or downtick," says Mr. Moore. Thus, a greater volume of stock changing hands on an uptick indicates the buyers are being relatively more aggressive at accumulating stock than the sellers are at dumping it. The more-aggressive investors can be expected to carry the trend. But as with any indicator, those investors may be wrong and money flows can thus give a wrong signal.

[Al_Dente]

Price of Lumber historically likes to call tops in housing
But here it shows higher lows and higher highs, so I think we have to call this just a pullback until it proves otherwise…
Also, bearish rising wedge

[Kato]

Big move coming in Silver?

The last time the BBs were this narrow a big move up resulted (note-I use 25ma BBs) The question is which direction will this move be.

SLV:GLD long term trend line was recently breached to the downside

The close up:

[BullBear52x]

Big move coming in Silver?

The last time the BBs were this narrow a big move up resulted (note-I use 25ma BBs) The question is which direction will this move be.

The attachment Screen Shot 2013-03-24 at 1.44.20 PM.png is no longer available

SLV:GLD long term trend line was recently breached to the downside

The attachment Screen Shot 2013-03-24 at 1.47.20 PM.png is no longer available

The close up:

The attachment Screen Shot 2013-03-24 at 2.00.17 PM.png is no longer available

Gap resistance for GLD and SLV

[KeiZai]

Big move coming in Silver?

The last time the BBs were this narrow a big move up resulted (note-I use 25ma BBs) The question is which direction will this move be.

The attachment Screen Shot 2013-03-24 at 1.44.20 PM.png is no longer available

SLV:GLD long term trend line was recently breached to the downside

The attachment Screen Shot 2013-03-24 at 1.47.20 PM.png is no longer available

The close up:

The attachment Screen Shot 2013-03-24 at 2.00.17 PM.png is no longer available

Gap resistance for GLD and SLV

BB your take on bucky?

I see potential monthly topping tail at double MM and triangle line res and good wedgie long setup in euro together with overcrowded dollar bulls possible ST/ MT top?

[tkvprasad]

Paging BB:

Whats your take on EEM here, momentum accelerating to the downside bur price kind of made a double bottom here, do you think we can go long here if OCT '12 highs hold at 42.10 or above ?

Timeframe : Mid to longterm

[gappy]

The PM's being a puppet of the PTB, are a very risky investment now. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKsZ1hqH ... r_embedded#! (about 21.30 in as to my point) The grand scheme is a house of cards, don't care whose side is taken. Intuition; dollar up, PM's stay range bound, aud,gbp, down, miners: pop/drop and range bound til 2014. The Fed is still buying mortgage backed securities in record amounts and commercial mortgage loans are up huge at banks. Six weeks ago price friction in silver was easier to the shortside during Globex, only to change recently to trap bulls. The players were scrapping for half pennies, a sign of insanity. For you that like to keep track, Bradley's siderograph. http://www.amanita.at/Interessantes/Art ... p?id=24355 So, a little more buffer for the bust? GLTA this week.

[Al_Dente]

Gap resistance for GLD and SLV

nice, thanks

[Al_Dente]

Etta: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8gjyS-QEVs

Cobra: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[BullBear52x]

Big move coming in Silver?



/quote]

BB your take on bucky?

I see potential monthly topping tail at double MM and triangle line res and good wedgie long setup in euro together with overcrowded dollar bulls possible ST/ MT top?

The attachment DX-23.png is no longer available

The attachment e.png is no longer available

Bucky is tricky pony, it's overbought short term but not out see support line on UUP here, on long term CCI 144 is nothing say bearish but over bought. short term swing still maintain its HH a trade under 22.37 will really show a weak hand.