04/01/2013 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

I'm watching SPY put options and the spread is all over the place---it's usually much tighter. Quite a nice move down.

i'm trying to read the tape and it is just crazy. i thought we had a flash crash coming at first.

Mar. ISM Manufacturing Index: 51.3 vs. 54.0 consensus and 54.2 prior.

I saw that. but the tape went nuts before the news broke.

Insider front running?

Initially you might think that but those numbers are closely guarded. I remember a case where some junior something leaked some numbers one time and it was treated harshly. lots of jail time and barred from life. On Wall Street, barred from life is worse than anything and leaky numbers are actually despised because (perversely) they see it as unfair. Inside information isn't viewed as badly because everybody gets some about something. Leaked numbers affect everybody so they actually want it done fairly.

Weird.

[TWT]

$SPX: An (ABC) following the triangle should not be an ending move

[Cobra]

rebound so far looks like a bear flag. let's see if once again bears have only one leg down or finally bears are able to make 2 legs.

[L_T]

rebound so far looks like a bear flag. let's see if once again bears have only one leg down or finally bears are able to make 2 legs.

Note to self: Google image search for "bears cheer leading" is not really safe for work......hmmm maybe I should have known that......

[johnnywa]

Trannies and IWM almost 1% down,do they pull rest of market down?

[Out of Bounds]

rebound so far looks like a bear flag. let's see if once again bears have only one leg down or finally bears are able to make 2 legs.

Note to self: Google image search for "bears cheer leading" is not really safe for work......hmmm maybe I should have known that......

[heavenskrow]

AAPL still has a target of 363. Monthly and weekly still bearish. Daily sell signal has started to turn and now under the 20dayMA

[Out of Bounds]

Took a short - doesn't look like we'll see 5min 20ema

[Mr. BachNut]

Market Neutral.
I hedged at the Friday close.

My composite trend signal is up.
My summation index signal is neutral. It will turn negative for the R2K if last week's lows are broken.

With various divergences and warnings, I have been getting more cautious even though the trend is up.
Shorting high closes to hedge and covering in downdrafts over the last two weeks has kept me net long while making a few bucks on hedges.
I am not a swing trader so I can't say I planned it that way...
I'll be picking a spot to close out some or all of my current hedge assuming this pattern continues.

I would wait on playing hedges until my signals turn, but given the charts showing high margin debt and high COT commercial short positions, it is plausible that when a drop eventually comes it could be steep and fast.
As I move slow, my chances are better if I am trying to be proactive rather than reactive.

[Out of Bounds]

covered short neutral.

[Cobra]

2nd leg down and possible target.

[Me XMan]

Good morning. Finally gone short SPX 1567.

2nd leg down and possible target.

[heavenskrow]

Nikkei big factor in today's move. Nikkei still has more downside from here til we get another bounce up

[Cobra]

target met. this bear shall have legs (well, NORMALLY).

[heavenskrow]

VXX

[Out of Bounds]

Counter-trade - dipping a toe in long.

[Mr. BachNut]

Nikkei big factor in today's move. Nikkei still has more downside from here til we get another bounce up

To my point earlier about fast steep drops, a month's worth of performance was erased in the DXJ etf this morning.

[heavenskrow]

Nikkei to 261.8% fib target after failing to hold the 161.8% target

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:05 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/04 ... ay-update/

[heavenskrow]

Nikkei big factor in today's move. Nikkei still has more downside from here til we get another bounce up

To my point earlier about fast steep drops, a month's worth of performance was erased in the DXJ etf this morning.

wow lol that must have sucked if anyone was in it