07/17/2013 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

Ben direct quote, earlier:
"I think the market is beginning to understand our message, and the volatility has moderated"
btw: BEN WATCHES THE VIX

[L_T]

Short 168.15
No push here. i think just fade this afternoon. hunch only - no real indicator

Edit: Smallish position

If this remains a range day we should turn back around 168.2x IMHO.

[fehro]

possible invs H&S on NUGT

[Cobra]

not a valid breakout yet, wait.

[daytradingES]

go down you pig
down!!!!!!!!!!!
:lol

[Me XMan]

From what I heard of Benny said, I'll go long on the breakout.

not a valid breakout yet, wait.

[BullBear52x]

Thanks.
Thanks for pointing out it hasn't reached the cyan yet.

[/quote]

BULL TRAP SETUP BOSS

hold on to that short /ES into the night if not making anything by EOD. this is for quickey of course. [/quote]

Thanks BB

I'm kicking myself for chasing the head-fake breakdown and most of my profits are poof!
I won't hold into the night - not enough in account...
Talking my trade..
If the range is 12.50 and
IF the high is in at 1680.50
THEN
1680.50 -12.50 +1.50=> 1669.50 target for low end..

fingers crossed.. [/quote]
Nice range those number is helping me with my fib extensions 70.xx will do me good, any thing more will do me gooder

[auger]

/YM selling picking up again at this level. Nothing huge but noticeable stair step down on an hourly chart.

[L_T]

Short 168.15
No push here. i think just fade this afternoon. hunch only - no real indicator

Edit: Smallish position

If this remains a range day we should turn back around 168.2x IMHO.

Hit that one dead on. Too bad I wasn't short .

[fehro]

SPX 5 not so sure about that H&S... but trendlines working

[taggard]

Ben direct quote, earlier:
"I think the market is beginning to understand our message, and the volatility has moderated"
btw: BEN WATCHES THE VIX

everyone is watching the vix and that is the whole problem. you can either have stability or realism in a world where change is more or less going up 400% every 100 years. What is missing is any discussion of rate of change--larger historical patterns--and the idea of "the use of capital is more of an issue than capital itself". doing anything new esp that pays off in 10 years rather than 1 requires risk or at least the idea of risk (from where i sit taking short term positions in stuff like r and d is more of a risk than longer term spending in the area). this is the 2n time in 20 years i have watched a fed head before congress and it was a depressing (not unexpected) experience.

going back to the vix--as individuals both on a psych and physio level we learn from contrasts. not from being pleasantly numb. on one hand you cannot blame the fed as people seem to think this is the mandate. on the other hand any change in the fundamental problems is going to be much slower with "fear of high vix" as the major motivating force.

this is only the 2nd time in 20 years i have watched the fed head before congress and it's depressing. bottom line? i am more afraid of being numb than volatility. and in fact the whole experience reminds me of Villon little gem which addresses some of the above by means of metaphor

In my own country I am in a far off land.
I am strong but have no power.
I win all yet remain a loser.
At break of day I say goodnight.
When I lie down I have great fear of falling.

[auger]

/YM selling picking up again at this level. Nothing huge but noticeable stair step down on an hourly chart.

Here's the chart on that, for anyone interested.

[Al_Dente]

thanks TAG

[Cobra]

false breakout. I'm neutral.

[Al_Dente]

XIV testing hi on day

[BullBear52x]

I like CLF basing. looks solid.

[BullBear52x]

before everyone gone to sleep

Intraday = sell the rip

not a hot selll, but sell anyways, ......until it fails!

[Al_Dente]

Inverted volatility in white
Volatility likes bull-spy (except Q)

[fehro]

SPX 5m which line will win.. .leaning downside

[BullBear52x]

Inverted volatility in white
Volatility likes bull-spy (except Q)

717vol.png

Any time there is gap up before the fall it will continue higher, but this time a little weaker than I expected, but no way close to be bearish longer term. nail biting game.