08/27/2013 Live Update

[daytradingES]

I'm posting this for exit ideas. Here is a swing trade I'm in. There was more tech analysis involved in the decision to short yesterday (on longer time frames), but I still limited my risk to only 0.1% of trading account. By shaving it thin and minimizing the price between entry and initial stop, I was able to buy more shares (SDS). 1/2 of the shares trail a stop on the hourly high, the other half are trailing at the 60 min 20MA, waiting to see how things progress on the daily. Ready to move the stop down depending on developments.

A couple things bother me about the decline since 8/2. Low volumes, and no panic. (And yet even with low volumes, price can drop 1% in a minutes.) It's kind of spooky to me. It's is difficult to commit to going major long until I see some PANIC!

SPX 08-26-13 Swing Trade.png

EDIT: Since SDS is down I mean the below in reverse that is stay short = long SDS)

I would say stay short and raise your stop to BE, or close part around now and and re-short later today at end of day.
(looking for a V day I wouldn't take the long side though).

Last night I realized today is 27 Aug which as I recall is the high before the 1987 black Monday 19 Oct 1987. The Dow dropped about 1/3 to Wednesday so 2 days. The screens only had 2 digits for the change (as a big day was 15 points on the Dow, 3 pts normal) so below -99 you didn't know if it was -199 or -299.
-- now circuit breakers ... but it doesn't matter in my opinion.

Also I noticed a "grand square of death" (ok that's my name I don't know what it's really called) between four major planets and therefore opposition between the corner planets.

IHIH

Good luck!

[joegamma]

from 8/08 day forum, VIX still owes at least 1 close outside upper BB (McClellan's idea, me not bright enough to create it) old chart fyidownload/file.php?id=49042&mode=view

download/file.php?id=49042&t=1

[joegamma]

In your humble opinion Dr AL,
does this indicate complacency and heavy selling into the close perhaps?
I am short and looking to stay that way at least into tomorrow fwiw

declining-volume-to-advancing-volume ratio is 5 to 1
bear
declining-stocks-to-advancing-stocks ratio is 4 to 1
bear
decliners nydec 2400
bear
I don’t see complacency yet
IMHO

THX For The Dome update!
I only see a bit in (relatively low) nydnv (which will increase towards the close)

[MrMiyagi]

VIX hod.

[essessme]

Approaching next open gap 34.20 - 31.89 cash

[fehro]

Break the green line... look out below... SPX 60m

[dowtrader]

This chart might help ES trader .... watch 1633 level is very important for the day

[Al_Dente]

JOEGAMMA
Too early to tell……..wait for later in the day…….
I won’t hold short overnight, as the A/D and volume ratios are too overdone, and may need a pop, which often comes in the form of a little gap-up open in the morning, or a bounce in the am, just to reset……
too soon to tell........this may bounce right here right now......


TRADERGIRL
Can u show us a chart or something re your “bounce tomorrow” thanks

[L_T]

This is what it feels like to be a bull right now.

[joegamma]

T_girl's possible turn reminded me....

tomorrow i start getting some TLT puts,
still in L/T downtrend
Sept taper still possible
its been a sell every pop above 20 day keltner midline,
will give it a bit of breathing room but looking to short tlt for a 2-3 day downmove...

[joegamma]

This is what it feels like to be a bull right now.

yep, thats what it felt like to close my r2k calls this am, grateful I wa not 200% long
but (AL Dente and others) input convinced me to take the hit and get short, no chance for a decent bounce intraday when nydec>2300 all morning

[MrMiyagi]

Are we ever going to see support?

[rhight]

Tomorrow is a turn date...my charts indicate a bounce...

SPX 1635 is a 50% retrace of leg up from 6/24 Low. Maybe good for a bounce.

[gappy]

@50% fib june low on 4 hour chart. SPX.

spx.png

[joegamma]

DaytradingES: thanks again for the gann thread, this green line from Apr lows is (in retrospect) more important that first thought for R2K...looking we just began wave 3 of 5 down, look for pause around 99ish? old chart...
old chart



viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1032

[TraderGirl]

JOEGAMMA
Too early to tell……..wait for later in the day…….
I won’t hold short overnight, as the A/D and volume ratios are too overdone, and may need a pop, which often comes in the form of a little gap-up open in the morning, or a bounce in the am, just to reset……
too soon to tell........this may bounce right here right now......


TRADERGIRL
Can u show us a chart or something re your “bounce tomorrow” thanks

I will show you a chart of RUT...nice example of some wave counts...

we had 5 waves down without a lower low...that means it is impulsive down not an ending wave...additionally, because it is impulsive, it will therefore not get a higher high, and the impulsive nature most likely guarantees a lower low...

I don't have any chart to show you, they are proprietary and difficult to decipher...

[dowtrader]

Update for S&P traders

[Al_Dente]

tradergirl
great
thanks

[Cobra]

volume surge, so hopefully a pullback here fist. tinted area the mini rebound target.

[joegamma]

JOEGAMMA
Too early to tell……..wait for later in the day…….
I won’t hold short overnight, as the A/D and volume ratios are too overdone, and may need a pop, which often comes in the form of a little gap-up open in the morning, or a bounce in the am, just to reset……
too soon to tell........this may bounce right here right now......


TRADERGIRL
Can u show us a chart or something re your “bounce tomorrow” thanks

I will show you a chart of RUT...nice example of some wave counts...

we had 5 waves down without a lower low...that means it is impulsive down not an ending wave...additionally, because it is impulsive, it will therefore not get a higher high, and the impulsive nature most likely guarantees a lower low...

THANKS FOR SHARING SOME SECRETS!

Note: iwm:rvx has lower low from last week, as do most indices (IYT does not-trannines big part of r2k)
lets see what/when RUT does

I don't have any chart to show you, they are proprietary and difficult to decipher...