09/06/2013 Live Update

[Cobra]

this rebound has legs, so normally it should go like this.

[Daniel-David]

Intraday high to low, SPY has retraced about 40% of the selloff decline.

[Mr. BachNut]

Short. Added to position yesterday at Fib. resistance level with overbought TRIN.
After the NFP pop this morning, I was preparing to say "My stop approacheth...,"
but things have changed.
Now the trade either works or it doesn't.

My summation index signal is up.
My composite trend indicator signal is down.

My summation index ticked above threshold levels yesterday briefly and blasted through them pre-market this morning.
I was planning to long the usual NFP fade during market hours (which would have rendered me flat), but I think I'll wait to see how things unfold.
Per the "No easy for Bears" principle, this rally was to look like a turn even if it wasn't a turn.
Pressing buy stop pain points and putting up false flag bull trap signals is consistent with that.
So, maybe the high is in now, and the downtrend resumes. Watch the close.
If the pre-market highs can be broken though, I think my summation index signal needs to be respected.

[BullBear52x]

From " It is what it is dept"

SPY intraday = Sell the rip

[Out of Bounds]

Intraday high to low, SPY has retraced about 40% of the selloff decline.

It may quite possibly retrace entirely. However, I think the damage is done and real fear persists. I expect the bears will come in and run things for a bit.

[Daniel-David]

NYSE advancers strong snapback from below 1000 to current ca. 1250.

Up/down volume also showing strong recovery, now about 4/3 up vol

[rhight]

So this morning was extraordinary by any standards. Ultra high manipulation. Did anyone here see through it? and if so what is the key to knowing?
I actually had one sign which at least prevented me from losing and that was a bounce off my favorite VIX ema. Be glad to hear if others had an inkling though....

Yesterday's TICK was bearish, even though the TRIN was bullish. That gave me pause. But, NYUPV was > NYDNV (and this is still the case this morning). The Daily ADX is in consolidation, which is another way of saying that both sides lose, and you better be nimble.
Some people call it a "meat grinder".

[L_T]

So this morning was extraordinary by any standards. Ultra high manipulation. Did anyone here see through it? and if so what is the key to knowing?
I actually had one sign which at least prevented me from losing and that was a bounce off my favorite VIX ema. Be glad to hear if others had an inkling though....

Yesterday's TICK was bearish, even though the TRIN was bullish. That gave me pause. But, NYUPV was > NYDNV (and this is still the case this morning). The Daily ADX is in consolidation, which is another way of saying that both sides lose, and you better be nimble.
Some people call it a "meat grinder".

Also the interesting dynamic today of both the NFP typical pattern (start low drift higher) vs news event.

[Daniel-David]

Fear bleeding out of market as quickly as it came in. Vixies pulling back, breadth strong.

Geopolitical babbling can make a mushy mess out of TA. Comments come out of the blue, are overreacted to, then quickly become irrelevant. Knee jerk responses are then punished.

Hard to position in such an environment.

[Out of Bounds]

On the heels of a great speech days ago, these comments seem disjointed and cloudy. Maybe he is tired.

[BullBear52x]

If bears mean business, New LOD is to be expected from here.

[jack black]

Sell on Rosh Hashanah and Buy on Yom Kippur seems to be working so far.
Full disclosure: short equities, long precious metals and miners.

[johnnywa]

Bears are ungodly weak!!

[Daniel-David]

xle, xop breakout to new hod; likewise xhb. Homebuilder ITB nearly thru to new hod.

[Cobra]

volume surge, biggest bar, so might see pullback here first which likely would be bought. seems bears are over.

[rhight]

OK, now that all the stops have been cleared, let's get down to business!

[fehro]

SPX 5m

[Daniel-David]

Nasdaq flat on day.

Boring morning. Yawn.

(not)

[BullBear52x]

watch RSI on 5min. a drop down below 50 this time will be where my selling start intraday.

[BigPicture]

Good morning All!
Newbie here so sorry if this posts twice-trying to learn the quirks of the board.
This morning's moves really irritated me, so I wrote this:

How the stock market really works:

1)The jobs report was not as good as expected, so the initial take was that the Fed would postpone tapering, causing equities to rally.

2) One of the reasons Obama cannot get the UN to go along with a military strike on Syria (the main reason actually, maybe even the only reason) is that the UN was structured after WWII to give veto power to any of the 5 members of the security council, one of which is Russia. Russia sells arms to Syria, so Russia is opposed to the strikes and has promised a veto. Basically Russia doesn't want to lose a good customer.

3)This morning, right after the jobs report, Putin issued a statement that Russia would continue selling arms to Syria regardless of whether or not the U.S. struck Syria. In other words, status quo.

4) This was reported by ignorant news reporters with no sense of history or context as "OMG! Russia is going to aid Syria if the U.S. attacks!!! A war between Russia and the U.S.!!!" Needless to say, the Dow tanked.

5) Ignorant traders with a bare minimal understanding of economics, trying to figure out if the jobs report was good news or bad news?, does it mean tapering is on or off?, is that good or bad?, how does the market interpret it-as good or bad?, see the Dow drop and conclude the jobs report is bad news, or the market is interpreting it as bad news, so sell sell sell!! In fact, the drop was due to mis-reporting of Putin's statement.

6) How the stock market really works: Ignorant people with no understanding of economics,current events,or history selling based on misunderstanding ignorant news reports delivered by ignorant reporters with no context,sense of history, or rudimentary understanding.

7) Conclusion: it is no longer the game of trying to figure out if good news is bad news, etc. Now the game is: if the news is expected we go up (because it's already baked in) and if the news is unexpected we go down (because everyone is trying to cheat off of everyone else's exam answers and there is no one in the class who has a clue). Technical analysis is the only sensible technique in an environment where fundamentals have no meaning due to almost universal ignorance.