09/06/2013 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

Good morning All!
Newbie here so sorry if this posts twice-trying to learn the quirks of the board.
This morning's moves really irritated me, so I wrote this:

How the stock market really works:

1)The jobs report was not as good as expected, so the initial take was that the Fed would postpone tapering, causing equities to rally.

2) One of the reasons Obama cannot get the UN to go along with a military strike on Syria (the main reason actually, maybe even the only reason) is that the UN was structured after WWII to give veto power to any of the 5 members of the security council, one of which is Russia. Russia sells arms to Syria, so Russia is opposed to the strikes and has promised a veto. Basically Russia doesn't want to lose a good customer.

3)This morning, right after the jobs report, Putin issued a statement that Russia would continue selling arms to Syria regardless of whether or not the U.S. struck Syria. In other words, status quo.

4) This was reported by ignorant news reporters with no sense of history or context as "OMG! Russia is going to aid Syria if the U.S. attacks!!! A war between Russia and the U.S.!!!" Needless to say, the Dow tanked.

5) Ignorant traders with a bare minimal understanding of economics, trying to figure out if the jobs report was good news or bad news?, does it mean tapering is on or off?, is that good or bad?, how does the market interpret it-as good or bad?, see the Dow drop and conclude the jobs report is bad news, or the market is interpreting it as bad news, so sell sell sell!! In fact, the drop was due to mis-reporting of Putin's statement.

6) How the stock market really works: Ignorant people with no understanding of economics,current events,or history selling based on misunderstanding ignorant news reports delivered by ignorant reporters with no context,sense of history, or rudimentary understanding.

7) Conclusion: it is no longer the game of trying to figure out if good news is bad news, etc. Now the game is: if the news is expected we go up (because it's already baked in) and if the news is unexpected we go down (because everyone is trying to cheat off of everyone else's exam answers and there is no one in the class who has a clue). Technical analysis is the only sensible technique in an environment where fundamentals have no meaning due to almost universal ignorance.

that is long post just to say TA makes sense in short term trading.

Now the market decide to go all the way to RSI >70, sell the rip baby come to papa.

[Mr. BachNut]

Well...my stop approacheth after all.

[Al_Dente]

Good morning All!..........7) Conclusion: it is no longer the game of trying to figure out if good news is bad news, etc. Now the game is: if the news is expected we go up (because it's already baked in) and if the news is unexpected we go down ...........

I like yr conclusion
ps: there are an awful lot of ignorant people in yr post
welcome to the board

[gappy]

Hourly.

spy.png

[uempel]

Some nice move is due at 1:30 p.m.

And by the way, is anybody going to go unhedged into the weekend? Short term the market could be +30 or -30 next week

[fehro]

my messy 60m SPX

[BullBear52x]

Some nice move is due at 1:30 p.m.

And by the way, is anybody going to go unhedged into the weekend? Short term the market could be +30 or -30 next week

SPX04.png

Hedging is for the unsure move only

[BigPicture]

Good morning All!..........7) Conclusion: it is no longer the game of trying to figure out if good news is bad news, etc. Now the game is: if the news is expected we go up (because it's already baked in) and if the news is unexpected we go down ...........

I like yr conclusion
ps: there are an awful lot of ignorant people in yr post
welcome to the board

Thanks!

[L_T]

7) Conclusion: it is no longer the game of trying to figure out if good news is bad news, etc. Now the game is: if the news is expected we go up (because it's already baked in) and if the news is unexpected we go down (because everyone is trying to cheat off of everyone else's exam answers and there is no one in the class who has a clue). Technical analysis is the only sensible technique in an environment where fundamentals have no meaning due to almost universal ignorance.

that is long post just to say TA makes sense in short term trading.

I would take that one step further: why even bother trying to summarize events which could have any number of unknowable origins? Just follow price. It's never wrong.

[uempel]

BigPicture, if you want to make money in the market never listen to the news - check the charts. Listening to the news will only confuse you I'm serious here, forget the news

[BullBear52x]

my two selling spots, the rip or the roll down.

[skittlesmds]

Some nice move is due at 1:30 p.m.

And by the way, is anybody going to go unhedged into the weekend? Short term the market could be +30 or -30 next week

SPX04.png

I'm going to the weekend in cash. The drop today helped me close out a short that went from losing money (-$1000 paper loss) to making me around $100 realized gain then I made a couple of hundred on the upside. I'm not trading again today and am happy to be in all cash for the weekend. This helps me enjoy the weekend better. I hope everyone has a great weekend.

[simpletrader]

BigPicture, if you want to make money in the market never listen to the news - check the charts. Listening to the news will only confuse you I'm serious here, forget the news

I like bullbear52x, trade with charts and setup.

[rhight]

Well, if that was a backtest this morning (1640 held), then things are looking up. But, if the triangle holds, then more chop. Overhead resistance is a potent mix. Inverse H&S? Really? I'm sitting this one out, for now. The long trend from 11/2012 comes at the 1640 area too, more or less.

[channel]

Some nice move is due at 1:30 p.m.

And by the way, is anybody going to go unhedged into the weekend? Short term the market could be +30 or -30 next week

SPX04.png

Which side you take? I prefer to "short".

[uempel]

BB52, I was long over the last long weekend and slept beautifully. But at the moment I see all kinds of contradictory signals (with a slight bullish bias).

Some nice move is due at 1:30 p.m.

And by the way, is anybody going to go unhedged into the weekend? Short term the market could be +30 or -30 next week

SPX04.png

Hedging is for the unsure move only

[BullBear52x]

BB52, I was long over the last long weekend and slept beautifully. But at the moment I see all kinds of contradictory signals (with a slight bullish bias).

Some nice move is due at 1:30 p.m.

And by the way, is anybody going to go unhedged into the weekend? Short term the market could be +30 or -30 next week

SPX04.png

Hedging is for the unsure move only

MACD histogram on daily will lead me thinks.

if cross bullish, bears are dead again.
if cross down lower than yesterday's, bulls will be dead.

[Daniel-David]

Looking at SPY and QQQ, and ignoring the violent politico-drama induced price action of the morning, what we have is a gap up, and these ETFs consolidating in a narrow range near the hod.

That is to say, the Market digested some comments by world leaders, vomited them back up, and here we are.

[BigPicture]

BigPicture, if you want to make money in the market never listen to the news - check the charts. Listening to the news will only confuse you I'm serious here, forget the news

My point exactly.
PS One of the first things I look for is your Gann charts. I don't understand why/how they work, but they sure do work!

[Daniel-David]

btw, HYG and JNK both confirming equity strength today, up 0.7 and 0.55 percent.