09/13/2013 Live Update

[Cobra]

Normally, should be another low attempt.

[Apple]

XLE: Clocked the new high. Looking for the pullback. Another new high (around $87) by opex or EoM is the prediction (i.e., my best guess tbd). fwiw...

[MrMiyagi]

I think this P-Bar can come off the to do list.

Yes, that one was hit this morning. Now, here is your next destination:

[Al_Dente]

IWM and IYT gaps are half-filled

[xfradnex]

Supports

[Al_Dente]

TRIN shows volume is flowing into declining stocks
VIX agrees

[xfradnex]

Sometimes jumps over a long established channels causes a large collapse. Top of large channel is back in play at least

[L_T]

XLE: Clocked the new high. Looking for the pullback. Another new high (around $87) by opex or EoM is the prediction (i.e., my best guess tbd). fwiw...

OIH has a similar looking chart on the daily. I would be buying the dip on either of those.

XLE weekly chart is also very positive.

[rhight]

TRIN shows volume is flowing into declining stocks
VIX agrees

At the moment, NYUPV > NYDNV and NYADV > NYDEC. The word "proportional" is important when citing TRIN. When TRIN > 1, proportionally more volume is going into declining stocks than advancing stocks. When it is between 0.9 and 1.1, neither side is considered to have a distinct advantage (the battle zone.) If anyone has a better understanding, please comment.

I would also like to discuss your XIV/VXX metric. Please do the algebra and get back me.

[Cobra]

volume surge, so hopefully a pullback here first, then we'll see. seems a range day today, so sell high buy low?

[Mr. BachNut]

I think this P-Bar can come off the to do list.

Yes, that one was hit this morning. Now, here is your next destination:

Done. Next?

While we wait for the next one, perhaps this is relevant reading:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-0 ... aders.html

[MrMiyagi]

SPY2

[xfradnex]

I think this P-Bar can come off the to do list.

SPY 169.45.png

That's what I call a flash tag...

Still trying to make it come true. I would have thought that we would have rolled over by now, with the shape of this short time frame hill. I think the newer the p-bar, the more valid it is, since the HFTers want the fast buck.


I just got a p-bar down to 168.88. It appeared and disappeared twice( scott)

[Cobra]

volume surge again, let's see if bears could make a double top here (must break blue line).

[uempel]

Waiting for a nice move in the last half-hour of today's trading, check the dashed blue vertical:

[Al_Dente]

TRIN shows volume is flowing into declining stocks
VIX agrees

At the moment, NYUPV > NYDNV and NYADV > NYDEC. The word "proportional" is important when citing TRIN. When TRIN > 1, proportionally more volume is going into declining stocks than advancing stocks. When it is between 0.9 and 1.1, neither side is considered to have a distinct advantage (the battle zone.) If anyone has a better understanding, please comment.
I would also like to discuss your XIV/VXX metric. Please do the algebra and get back me.

Thx boss
Intraday I use the slope of the trin for direction, not just the absolute value.
eg: if trin is > 1 (bear) but it’s slope is clearly moving down (up)…. then it is moving in a bullish (bearish) direction…etc

The XIV/VXX ratio is way tooooo simple for you boss. I slap on an appropriate ma (depends on the timeframe) and it simply answers my question:
Do I want to be long or short? I use SPY/SH in exactly the same way. Sorry, no algebra.
As u well know, RATIOS:
When the line is moving up, the numerator is in charge
When the line is moving down, the denominator is in charge

Here are two of my fave VIX ratios, but they are on daily, NOT INTRADAY
Top panel is longer term options [edit: inverted]
Bottom panel is an inversion of the famous Bill Luby ratio. “Everybody” on the net has been yapping about how that turned bull in the last few days
……… but now it’s going a bit soft….FWIW
ps: pls ignore the vertical dashed lines (they are keyed to straight vix)

[MrMiyagi]

I just got a p-bar down to 168.88. It appeared and disappeared twice( scott)

[Cobra]

triangle breakout. here's the target. I'm neutral.

[Cobra]

failed triangle, so here's my guess. overall, not much clue today, it's a range day.

[Apple]

XLE: Clocked the new high. Looking for the pullback. Another new high (around $87) by opex or EoM is the prediction (i.e., my best guess tbd). fwiw...

OIH has a similar looking chart on the daily. I would be buying the dip on either of those.

XLE weekly chart is also very positive.

Thank you. ...OIH looks to be leading a little at the moment too. I look at the relationship between $IXE (or the old $R1RGSENG) and $XOI and/or $OSX for differences. Interesting.