10/10/2013 Live Update

[uempel]

Update:

[Cobra]

2nd test of day high. key time.

[Cobra]

ok, plan changed, probably another small leg up at least.

[Al_Dente]

It’s official: Can-Kicking

and we're going all time new high again?

[Mr. BachNut]

While it may be a little overdone on the psycho-babble, I found this to be an interesting article exploring the nature of intuitive trading:

http://aroundwallstreet.com/2013/10/int ... at-trader/

I am not a "great" trader (as in Soros great), so I probably shouldn't comment, but I will...
While I am highly intuitive in a way that has been helpful all my life in many things, my profitability trading has actually improved by weighting analytics over intuition.
I started out trading intuitively, but failures to pull the trigger or to honor stops as well as impulse trades that had no statistical basis were generally intuitive decisions and came at a net cost to the business.
My intuition has also had trouble with the idea of carrying conflicting positions (i.e. long and short at the same time) even though practically they should be considered independent statistical events.
So, while I still use intuition trading (for good and ill) especially when it aligns with my setups, I put greater weight on my trading plan and its backtested protocols to drive actions and keep me out of trouble.

I know some people are great intuitive traders. Perhaps, as the article suggests, I have hangups from my childhood that complicate my ability to trade intuitively .
In any case, some of you may get something out of this article or you might have an insight of your own (Taggard?).

[Mr. BachNut]

It’s official: Can-Kicking

and we're going all time new high again?

on the edge_png.png

I have a pair of shoes just like those!

[Xian]

It’s official: Can-Kicking

Drunk dial Congress. Website randomly calls congressmen "so you can yell at them."

http://drunkdialcongress.org/.

[Junior Buffett]

While it may be a little overdone on the psycho-babble, I found this to be an interesting article exploring the nature of intuitive trading:

http://aroundwallstreet.com/2013/10/int ... at-trader/

I am not a "great" trader (as in Soros great), so I probably shouldn't comment, but I will...
While I am highly intuitive in a way that has been helpful all my life in many things, my profitability trading has actually improved by weighting analytics over intuition.
I started out trading intuitively, but failures to pull the trigger or to honor stops as well as impulse trades that had no statistical basis were generally intuitive decisions and came at a net cost to the business.
My intuition has also had trouble with the idea of carrying conflicting positions (i.e. long and short at the same time) even though practically they should be considered independent statistical events.
So, while I still use intuition trading (for good and ill) especially when it aligns with my setups, I put greater weight on my trading plan and its backtested protocols to drive actions and keep me out of trouble.

I know some people are great intuitive traders. Perhaps, as the article suggests, I have hangups from my childhood that complicate my ability to trade intuitively .
In any case, some of you may get something out of this article or you might have an insight of your own (Taggard?).

Hi Bachnut,

This is excellent piece of information, so true and I am just amazed how they have gone into to research this intuition trading...just mind blowing!!!

It is not that only naive traders go through, this apply to each and every trader....from Buffett to ME!
Thank you very much!!!

[StudentBill]

I had drawn the green and blue Andrew's Forks long before yesterday. When XIV bounced of the middle of the blue I thought we might be in for a really nice bounce. If we come back and and close below though... look out. If this can-kick has any legs I fully expect XIV to get to 30 in two weeks or less.

[Cobra]

mini pullback target. nothing to worry before it's exceeded.

[Al_Dente]

Short term spy renko went long this morning

All volatility went long-spy this morning
(XIV is straight, the others are inverted)

The group went long this morning.
I am expecting backtesting [conjecture only] until the moving averages turn up

[MrMiyagi]

iwm

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[MrMiyagi]

qqq

[Al_Dente]

Those “poor weak” banks
FAS is up 6.7% today

[Cobra]

this kind of consolidation usually favors bulls.

[oldpigwang]

Is the MKT going to , atleast test the low ?

[seemore]

I was a little slow yesterday, but today I see another inverse H&S, this time on the hourly for GDX/Nugt to stay/go more bull. Targets, if neckline crossed, are about $25.13 for GDX/$53.90 for Nugt. Note we are at the neckline now. Only thing is that the volume going into the head is not as good as yesterdays.

[nightwolf]

Mr Miyagi are these P-bars are they still open?

download/file.php?id=51507&mode=view

[uempel]

Guys and girls with balls of steel can go short here at SPX 1685, but it's like playing Russian Roulette with bullets in three chambers. In earnest: most likely this is today's top, but I don't have the guts to go against the trend ...