11/08/2013 Live Update

[RedKite]

A word of caution for swing bears. Yesterday was not just a down day it was a capitulation day, as measured by NYADV and NYDNV. Capitulation days usually occur near the end of a downtrend. It's very rare to get one at the start. Difficult to interpret but I've taken it as a signal to sell my shorts, which I'd been holding for a week, and watch for a while. I wouldn't be surprised by a drift lower into the middle of next week, but a capitulation day is usually associated with an imminent bottom not a continuing downtrend. So we'd need to see another setup forming if a real downtrend is to arrive. Almost everybody else is saying this is the start of a turn down, so this is an outlier opinion.

[Cobra]

double bottom indeed. you know the target.

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. messy.. could be a bearish rising wedge.. resistance here possibly ..higher on the 60m

[fehro]

SPX 60m... breakdown retest?

[Al_Dente]

group
30m
TBT indicates bull spy while UDN indicates bear spy
etc

[Mr. BachNut]

Short. Added some SPX short yesterday.

My summation index signal is down. The SPX signal turned down yesterday joining the R2K directionally.
My composite trend signal is up. It took a little damage yesterday but not as much as the price action would have suggested.

So far, this still shows like a corrective move rather than a change in trend.
The No Easy For Bears Principle is in effect.
So, even if the move has more to go, there ought to be something squeezy to shake out the weak and confuse the strong.
The move could also just end, but a second push down or retest is the usual way.
I honored my summation signal for the S&P yesterday.
I could end up trapped here given the strength of the up trend as my setups are geared to let positions run if they can.
Today's close will be important, but I think this goes into next week (OPEX) before it is settled one way or another.

[fehro]

VIX 15m... possible support..

[Out of Bounds]

A word of caution for swing bears. Yesterday was not just a down day it was a capitulation day, as measured by NYADV and NYDNV. Capitulation days usually occur near the end of a downtrend. It's very rare to get one at the start. Difficult to interpret but I've taken it as a signal to sell my shorts, which I'd been holding for a week, and watch for a while. I wouldn't be surprised by a drift lower into the middle of next week, but a capitulation day is usually associated with an imminent bottom not a continuing downtrend. So we'd need to see another setup forming if a real downtrend is to arrive. Almost everybody else is saying this is the start of a turn down, so this is an outlier opinion.

Not enough volume to be considered capitulation - not even close. Also, the selling was orderly and there was no hint of panic; this is not so on a capitulation day. VIX didn't spike though it did move modestly up.
I have never heard of a capitulation day being defined by the A/D line. Where did find such a definition?

[fehro]

SPX 15m

[Cobra]

wait for h1.

[Daniel-David]

Yesterday $NYMO-daily closed well below its 18day Keltner bands (some use 20day but the net results are similar).

Most of the time this year such closes, well outside the bands, upper or lower, tend to return to the midline fairly quickly, starting the process either the next day or shortly thereafter. This is something which is often tracked by contributors on Cobra’s membership site.

Of particular interest is that this current low reading in NYMO will be the third one since the major LOW in June... each of the lows higher than the prior. This is a sign of deep underlying market strength.

[joegamma]

A word of caution for swing bears. Yesterday was not just a down day it was a capitulation day, as measured by NYADV and NYDNV. Capitulation days usually occur near the end of a downtrend. It's very rare to get one at the start. Difficult to interpret but I've taken it as a signal to sell my shorts, which I'd been holding for a week, and watch for a while. I wouldn't be surprised by a drift lower into the middle of next week, but a capitulation day is usually associated with an imminent bottom not a continuing downtrend. So we'd need to see another setup forming if a real downtrend is to arrive. Almost everybody else is saying this is the start of a turn down, so this is an outlier opinion.

Not enough volume to be considered capitulation - not even close. Also, the selling was orderly and there was no hint of panic; this is not so on a capitulation day. VIX didn't spike though it did move modestly up.
I have never heard of a capitulation day being defined by the A/D line. Where did find such a definition?

Boy OH Boy! those melt-ups are fast and furious....many s/t internal and breadth measures were overdone yesterday, but those that I look at hint at more downside next week, thinks its best to wait and get a sense if s/t trader sentiment swings very bearish which will lead to a bigger squeeze higher early next week, GLTA

[Daniel-David]

per StockCharts, current SPY 5day MA is ca. 176.27; current hod was 176.27...

[jack black]

What was that spike in XLF all about? Short squeese? Glad I sold my puts. I could not resist and purchased them again on this spike. I did it faster than I thought, so probably dumb move, as dollar didn't start falling yet as I expected for a next setup.

[uempel]

Update:

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Uempel: your comment on big ellipse cross 11/06 saved me a huge loss yesterday, THANKS!

nothing dull about this market. Ellipse system suggests a good new move for tomorrow: either acceleration up to a new high or a reversal.

Very glad it helped you

[jack black]

Could someone with good eyes tell me if Nikkei fell off the triangle? The one it was forming in the last 6 months? It kind of looks like it. If confirmed, it will be a HUGE move.

[Cobra]

it's h2 actually. let's see.

[joegamma]

Anyone looking at TLT? seems a buy may be desirable 103-35/50 area

[jack black]

Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Fell in November to Two-Year Low
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-0 ... r-low.html

That is useally a great bottom indicator, but we are near all time highs. Can someone help me with this. Should we all go long at this point?
Maybe the crowd knows better indeed?

[joegamma]

What was that spike in XLF all about? Short squeese? Glad I sold my puts. I could not resist and purchased them again on this spike. I did it faster than I thought, so probably dumb move, as dollar didn't start falling yet as I expected for a next setup.

unless they expire today, me thinks you should be okay, looking to sell iwm109ish uptoward 109 1/2 and fill in last week low volume areas