11/11/2013 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Don't know what pattern it is, it's the 2nd test of Friday's high so sharp pullback here would mean a short-term top was in, so kind of key time. The pattern is a little too small though, so even short-term top was in, the pullback might not be large, no to mention we don't know yet if the short-term top was indeed in.

[Cobra]

weekly stock picks are here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/11 ... ock-picks/

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/11 ... ay-update/

[gappy]

Some Hightower morning mugs. glta.

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Thanks veterans, enjoy the day.

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[DellGriffith]

Bitcoin vs equities?

Bitcoin dropped most of the weekend, but is rallying again this morning. And equities are soft on the open. Pondering an inverse relationship...for now.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets
https://btc-e.com/

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:05 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/11 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

looks like bull flag so the bias is up.

[Mr. BachNut]

Short. Trapped.

My summation signal is down.
My composite trend signal is up. It has been solid since the October low, but parameters appear to be stalling while various moving average thresholds are snugging up. So, this signal could get quite sensitive over the next week or so.

The No Easy For Bears Principle was in full force on Friday and blood has been spilled (well not really but pain is being felt).
Unfortunately, given the magnitude of the move, the forward win % for my SPX summation trade drops to about 37% from here vs. 65% at entry. So, I expect this trade to fail now.
There is still some distance between here and stops.
Over the weekend, I looked for a basis to do a discretionary close and limit downside, but I couldn't get there.
It turns out that the last three winners for this setup had comparable drawdowns before working. So did the important May short.
That may be chance and sequencing, but the point is the setup is designed to cope with a body blow.
While the odds are now unfavorable, there is enough history of asymmetric payoffs with this that I should hold to stop rather than close to maintain the integrity of the setup.
For Red Sox fans, it is like having Big Papi at bat in the bottom of the ninth with a 1 and 2 count. He is probably out, but a certain % of the time, he knocks out a winner.
So, I'll keep the trade swinging at bat for another day.
The other aspect at work was Friday's Advance/Decline. The summation signal is a function of A/D, and Friday's price action not withstanding, there was nothing in the A/D to suggest this signal was turning up.
I plan to do nothing today but leave stops to protect me. I'll review the state of affairs after the close and decide whether to manage more actively. This may go on until mid-week I figure.

[fehro]

a couple of SPX 60m

[Cobra]

it was h2 long. let's see.

[daytradingES]

Bitcoin vs equities?

Bitcoin dropped most of the weekend, but is rallying again this morning. And equities are soft on the open. Pondering an inverse relationship...for now.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets
https://btc-e.com/

hI dELL

Bitcoin flaw could allow group to wrest control of currency ...
money.cnn.com/2013/11/04/technology/bitcoin-flaw
University researchers say they've found an unnoticed defect in Bitcoin that could undermine the whole system, turning the decentralized currency into a ...
Bitcoin flaw allows miners to game the system, gain control ...
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/1704 ... law-allows...
Though the public fervor of Bitcoin died down a while ago, the cryptocurrency is currently experiencing another high. With that, comes news of a massive vulnerability ...
Android random number flaw implicated in Bitcoin thefts ...
nakedsecurity.sophos.com/2013/08/12/android-random...
Bitcoin is in the news again. Seems that a random number problem on the Android platform is letting crooks get away with cryptographic fraud to make off ...
http://www.webcrawler.com/info.wbcrwl.3 ... n&ql=&ss=t

[fehro]

a very messy SPX 5m..

[Cobra]

rebound weak, so might be 3rd leg down.

[Heck]

171% undervalued buy open EQ calls/puts = Market Up
http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/ …

[KeiZai]

Russell just completed 5waves up or is close to do so, 3 waves back is in my opinion buy for breakout and new highs

P.S: thanks for the mail uempel

[BigChief]

Was trying to short the SPY for a false breakout of the 2009 channel, but to no avail, a good retest and breakout, I see renewed strength in the daily, 1 & 4hr charts, with momentum bottoming and rising again, we may end up hitting the upper channel that broke out of the 2009 channel, only time will tell, I have to nervously follow the momentum and price higher till it doesn't work, o well...maybe this will be the top and I have to re-short again

[MrMiyagi]

Pretty quiet in here today, noon in New York but only one page so far...

Must be folks taking off on Remembrance Day.

[Cobra]

nothing to say, still looks like a bull flag. another touch of the day low would breakdown thought but still it could be bull flag.

[fehro]

SPX daily

[fehro]

and just in case you were interested in the where the longer term lines came from SPX long term daily