11/15/2013 Live Update

[Mr. BachNut]

Neutral.

My summation signal is down for the SPX and neutral for the R2K. The SPX will go neutral today barring a surprise and the R2K needs new highs to turn up.
My composite trend signal is up.

New Fed head promises more QE forever. Santa Claus rally on deck. January effect rally on deck. No threats in sight.
What could possibly go wrong?

Nothing! In fact, how about a further correction in precious metals, as people take their money out of that sector and use it to buy equities causing more rally?

A thought I have been having about precious metals, mining stocks and treasuries/fixed income...

We are coming into tax selling season, when folks dump losers to generate tax losses to offset gains.
It seems like metals, mining and bonds may be good candidates for a lot of portfolios.
Not a prediction but some weakness in these would not surprise.

[Al_Dente]

5 minute VIX and TRIN are going bear-spy…
INTRADAY ONLY

[uempel]

Update:

[daytradingES]

A major sell signal IS possible today since we have an open above the daily BB on SPX and an open below the daily BB on the VIX as well. Let's pray the bears can pull it off.

I had a spreadsheet signal I call the Cross
It can be a signal of a big sell-off (or big up-push).
The thing is that today being Friday - it just doesn't feel like it.

The market is so strongly manipulated by the Fed and the US govt (they passed an act that allows them to actually go into the market and buy stocks at anytime they choose) that I don't think they will waste all the buying they did on Wed to push it up in celebration of happy Yellen day.

Perhaps it is just that I am so very tired..
Maybe Monday or Tuesday..

[stlwater]

possible H/S patterns EEM / SOX

just shorted sox at double top... had to.

[daytradingES]

Snif..!! I was waiting a little bank crash after Moody's downrate of the big 3...

I guess you bring em POMO and everything else a minor issue...

When everyone is drunk at a 1929 revival party
Moodys
makes
moot
meloncoly

[joegamma]

TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0

1115trin.png

For a strong rally, we need a surge in NYADV, or a drop in nyhgh from these levels, normally ratio needs lower

1115hg-adv.png

still looking at these and wondering if we are in a new leg up or not

1115trin-upv.png

and, RARE to see the amex highs have negative slope, not sure what it implies

1115amex.png

Hi joegamma, please explain "TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0" the 5 day avg would always be below 4.0 as TRIN is seldom above 4.0

5 days with trin at 0.80 is summed to 4.0, (ie .80 * 5) just the method that Bretz proposed (from Market Breadth Indicators book)...stockcharts cannot sum, so I used 6day ATR as a so-so visual proxy, you can add 'em by hand too

[Mr. BachNut]

TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0

1115trin.png

For a strong rally, we need a surge in NYADV, or a drop in nyhgh from these levels, normally ratio needs lower

1115hg-adv.png

still looking at these and wondering if we are in a new leg up or not

1115trin-upv.png

and, RARE to see the amex highs have negative slope, not sure what it implies

1115amex.png

Hi joegamma, please explain "TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0" the 5 day avg would always be below 4.0 as TRIN is seldom above 4.0

I think it is a 5 day total not average. You would use an average of 0.8 as a threshold.

I have some experience (read scar tissue) on this.
I have found that win rates on this are dramatically different depending on whether you are in a bull trend or bear trend.
The signal has good tradeable odds in a bear trend, but it is a coin flip in a bull trend IMO.
That said, it is worth keeping an eye on in a bull trend because the times it does work (52%) are often at highs/tops.

[fehro]

SPX 5m

[joegamma]

Update:

SPX4.png

Great Signal!

[fehro]

VIX 15m... green

[uempel]

Something wrong with the market? Up only 0.05 percent

[Al_Dente]

Volatility (bottom panel) broke first, as it often does
Now they all want to bounce
Failure at a bounce up to the 20MA zone would be a rare success for bears
ONE DAY intraday only
[not on this chart: trin is very bear-spy at the moment, but u know how that flips/flops]
sorry this chart is a few minutes stale.......

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[Al_Dente]

1977.png

""only one left open"""
THANK YOU boss

[fehro]

SPX 5m close up.. a day and half of a very tight range.. whopping 6 points... minor H&S possible yellow neckline

[Cobra]

nothing to say, basically still in range because it bounced from the OR low.

[fehro]

bored?... check out some interesting charts... http://www.bespokeinvest.com/

[Royal Flush]

TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0

1115trin.png

For a strong rally, we need a surge in NYADV, or a drop in nyhgh from these levels, normally ratio needs lower

1115hg-adv.png

still looking at these and wondering if we are in a new leg up or not

1115trin-upv.png

and, RARE to see the amex highs have negative slope, not sure what it implies

1115amex.png

Hi joegamma, please explain "TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0" the 5 day avg would always be below 4.0 as TRIN is seldom above 4.0

I think it is a 5 day total not average. You would use an average of 0.8 as a threshold.

I have some experience (read scar tissue) on this.
I have found that win rates on this are dramatically different depending on whether you are in a bull trend or bear trend.
The signal has good tradeable odds in a bear trend, but it is a coin flip in a bull trend IMO.
That said, it is worth keeping an eye on in a bull trend because the times it does work (52%) are often at highs/tops.

Thanks for the detail Mr. BachNut: won't the times it does work always be at highs/tops? I presume you mean that the probability of it working is lower if below a prior high or not a long way up in a leg off a recent bottom.

[TWT]

$DOW: H&S ?