11/16/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling action chart from stocktiming still shows negative divergence. i.e. NYA new high but institutional accumulation is not making new high while institutional distribution is not making new low.

[Cobra]

Smart money covered a little bit but still near record short so still indicating danger ahead.. Generally I'd like to smart money covered a lot (blue curve sharp up).

[Cobra]

AAII. No more II but II still is extremely optimistic.

[Cobra]

Summary of the weekly stock picks.
Great week, easy money is back.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1116&p=147997#p147997

[Cobra]

Preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1123&p=147999#p147999

[Al_Dente]

WHALE WATCH:
GOLD
“After cutting its gold holdings by more than half in Q2, Paulson & Co. held steady in Q3, its 13-F still showing ownership of 10.23M ounces of …GLD as of September 30. The fund had held 21.8M shares at the end of Q1.”
“Maybe of more interest, Soros Fund Management purchased 1.1M shares of … GDX in Q3. Ever the trader, Soros had previously unloaded all of his 2.67M shares during Q2.”

ALSO: Buffett bought XOM and now owns 40 million shares XOM valued at $3.4 billion.
ALSO: Whales are buying Fannie and Freddie, up 7.8% and 6.2% on Friday
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/ ... sinessNews
…while Congress dicks around trying to craft a bill that probably won’t pass for another year…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/senate-in ... 2.html?l=1

[Al_Dente]

Margin Dept for September is in: big jump
“$401 billion, a record amount that surpassed the previous high set in April of this year…”
http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/fac ... category=8

[Al_Dente]

Dougie Kass:
“10 Laws of Stock Market Bubbles”
[please read his “bottom line” b4 you trash this post]
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12104017 ... bbles.html

[KeiZai]

SPY chart update, with most likely outcome : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1115&p=147378#p147378

SPY-1h/15m

ES: Although I am expecting a little higher prices I started to accumulate (ST swing) shorts (In line with my plan #FollowUrOwnPlan )
I opened first pack at 1787 (ES) and second order was not filled on friday's close 1797 wanna try it NW (not a recommendation and conservative traders should imo wait for confirmation let alone newbies) viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1120&p=147850#p147850

missed 1797 order

BKX: nothing bearish there yet but looks a bit weak to me, not sure if she is gonna make a new high in this leg (could be contra wave B) just keep any eye on it

BKX

R2K: funny but structure looks a bit similar to BKX but timeframe is different, I changed the count there on friday because the wave is not that strong as she should be for wave3 so one more leg down cannot be ruled out and in that case new highs could come with january effect too early to say tho (but it would fit into my MT plan) viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1119&p=147677#p147677

Russell (early friday)

Homebuildes: the structure looks crystal clear last "X-mas" dip before take off (I like the R/R)

Homebuilders

Bigger pic : I am thinking about target min 35+ to 40 ---- again not a recommendation but If I gonna take that trade setup could look like buy 29.50(61.8 of C) or 29(depends on ST structure) with initial stop-loss 27.50 (later with BE) Risk: 2 Reward: 5.50 (example)

Homebuilders-BP

P.S: Big thanks to all folks posting here

[xfradnex]

Bottom graph is SPY. Boxes are the same size. No fancy bubbles.

[uempel]

Update on divergence SPX/MA 377:

[rhight]

Hello all,
Thanks for all the posts. An infrequent poster here. This first chart has statistical time and price boxes derived from the circled data points. When I drew the most recent box a few weeks ago, I didn't expect price to blow through the 3 year rising resistance and get there. Foolish me! Just because price is now in the box doesn't mean it has to stop, right !?

The next is my long term chart that shows that we are, indeed, in a New Paradigm. There is nowhere to go but up from here!
But, just in case that doesn't come true, a curious 62 week (14 month) cycle is coming due (light green.) Hmmm, I don't know what to think. When that happens, change is usually in the wind. Anyways, be careful out there.

[stlwater]

Hello all,
Thanks for all the posts. An infrequent poster here. This first chart has statistical time and price boxes derived from the circled data points. When I drew the most recent box a few weeks ago, I didn't expect price to blow through the 3 year rising resistance and get there. Foolish me! Just because price is now in the box doesn't mean it has to stop, right !?

SPX 11-15-13 Price Projection.png

The next is my long term chart that shows that we are, indeed, in a New Paradigm. There is nowhere to go but up from here!
But, just in case that doesn't come true, a curious 62 week (14 month) cycle is coming due (light green.) Hmmm, I don't know what to think. When that happens, change is usually in the wind. Anyways, be careful out there.

SPX 11-15-13 Weekly 5 Year.png

I would argue we are not really in a new paradigm until we break the monthly RSI trendline since pre-2000. Go ahead draw it and you'll see we are there.. this month if we close here or higher we break it.

[stlwater]

Hello all,
Thanks for all the posts. An infrequent poster here. This first chart has statistical time and price boxes derived from the circled data points. When I drew the most recent box a few weeks ago, I didn't expect price to blow through the 3 year rising resistance and get there. Foolish me! Just because price is now in the box doesn't mean it has to stop, right !?

The attachment SPX 11-15-13 Price Projection.png is no longer available

The next is my long term chart that shows that we are, indeed, in a New Paradigm. There is nowhere to go but up from here!
But, just in case that doesn't come true, a curious 62 week (14 month) cycle is coming due (light green.) Hmmm, I don't know what to think. When that happens, change is usually in the wind. Anyways, be careful out there.

The attachment SPX 11-15-13 Weekly 5 Year.png is no longer available

What this chart suggests to me is that price is way over extended a) because the market makers HAD to push up through the top of the primary dotted red trendline to b) ensure that any correction would not be perceived as the start of something bigger al a 2008 style and c) to assert that the lime green trendlines are the "new paradigm" and a return to the lower red dotted trendline is now highly unlikely. So, as we approach the mid-channel line what will happen? Eventually get a correction down to the lower green trendline but not below the thin dotted red trendline off the 2012 tops?

[gappy]

Only two countries on this graph have larger "shadow bank" asset amounts than standard reportable balance sheet ledgers. U.S. and Netherlands. These assets are highly under reported and unregulated for the most part, to be bundled and sold by in house idiots to the Brooklyn Bridge buyer dreaming of jackpot yield. Then the package is leveraged out as collateral to the next sucker. Next year legislation will have the Fed backstopping this fraud at the expense of the taxpaying people. One of these days, a foreign power will build a strategically thought out portfolio of these transactions, default it, and watch the fire spread. Trust in script will be damaged as to be worthless. Got gold?

sb.PNG

[BullBear52x]

SPY chart update, with most likely outcome : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1115&p=147378#p147378

The attachment SPY-chart.png is no longer available

ES: Although I am expecting a little higher prices I started to accumulate (ST swing) shorts (In line with my plan #FollowUrOwnPlan )
I opened first pack at 1787 (ES) and second order was not filled on friday's close 1797 wanna try it NW (not a recommendation and conservative traders should imo wait for confirmation let alone newbies) viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1120&p=147850#p147850

The attachment ES-newp.png is no longer available

BKX: nothing bearish there yet but looks a bit weak to me, not sure if she is gonna make a new high in this leg (could be contra wave B) just keep any eye on it

The attachment BKX-16.png is no longer available

R2K: funny but structure looks a bit similar to BKX but timeframe is different, I changed the count there on friday because the wave is not that strong as she should be for wave3 so one more leg down cannot be ruled out and in that case new highs could come with january effect too early to say tho (but it would fit into my MT plan) viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1119&p=147677#p147677

The attachment R-je.png is no longer available

Homebuildes: the structure looks crystal clear last "X-mas" dip before take off (I like the R/R)

The attachment XHB-16.png is no longer available

Bigger pic : I am thinking about target min 35+ to 40 ---- again not a recommendation but If I gonna take that trade setup could look like buy 29.50(61.8 of C) or 29(depends on ST structure) with initial stop-loss 27.50 (later with BE) Risk: 2 Reward: 5.50 (example)

The attachment XHB-16-bp.png is no longer available

P.S: Big thanks to all folks posting here

Nice charts Keizai, it's nice to know I am on the same side with the cool guys.

My take on XLF is that it is breaking out with many of the major indexes. see short term top channel as a possible high target, 21 and 20.5 will be a key support in the week to come.

[BullBear52x]

Once we talk banking we need to look at their assets also IYR here. looking back at the good time of 07.

Mid to long term pivot point, sell the rip

short term, if bull flag were to success, the housing bubble is to be expected.

[BullBear52x]

a look at 10yr. $TNX
High interest is good sign for stock and economy on the way up. If the real grow is true, if not, uncle Sam is going to get hit the most. few people I know who lost their job are almost impossible to find another like kind good paying job let alone the benefits that come(if any)with a new low paying jobs. But again if you love your country and care for the people around you who have not, you will do poorly trading the market. this is the big banks dog eat dog world

[daytradingES]

Hello all,
Thanks for all the posts. An infrequent poster here. This first chart has statistical time and price boxes derived from the circled data points. When I drew the most recent box a few weeks ago,

Hi Rhight,

Thanks for sharing your work

another way to do time clusters is with Gann's degrees/numbers
You can start from a major low and then from each successive low and high count the days forward.

Key numbers are fractions of 360 degrees divided by 2:
22.5
45
67.5
90
etc
and 360 divided by 3:
15
30
45
60
75
90
120
etc

I don't have the time to do it myself but I did do it once and found some great hits (I think it was at 150 - quincunx

You can do it both with TD and CD

IHIH

[daytradingES]

...Next year legislation will have the Fed backstopping this fraud at the expense of the taxpaying people. ..

sb.PNG

What is the legislation Gappy?
I don't really understand the shadow bank assets could you give us an example of on of these "investments" and how the Fed will back it?
Thanks in advance