03/27/2014 Live Update

[fehro]

Fehro, I like to hear your thoughts on GDX please.

GDX weekly, GOLD daily, GOLD monthly.. the charts are similar... GOLD monthly.. not looking good on the candle.. at the moment... still two days to go... weekly GDX holding 20w SMA.... possible invs H&S on GOLD... daily.. holding 200d 50d..... overall ... looks a tad bearish... but good support here... next week will be key... could make a lower low, invs RS..or plunge to new lows....

Thank you for the detailed response sir!

No problem.. still a tad tricky... made a small error, and corrected it above... meant to say higher* low vs lower low

[Vaamsy]

Fehro, I like to hear your thoughts on GDX please.

GDX weekly, GOLD daily, GOLD monthly.. the charts are similar... GOLD monthly.. not looking good on the candle.. at the moment... still two days to go... weekly GDX holding 20w SMA.... possible invs H&S on GOLD... daily.. holding 200d 50d..... overall ... looks a tad bearish... but good support here... next week will be key... could make a lower low, invs RS..or plunge to new lows....

Thank you for the detailed response sir!

No problem.. still a tad tricky... made a small error, and corrected it above... meant to say higher* low vs lower low

Yup, I see too many people bearish, it might just surprise to the upside with the IHS pattern hopefully.

[fehro]

Fehro, I like to hear your thoughts on GDX please.

need to watch USD... which is also at point that could go either way... weekly, monthly USD

[Al_Dente]

Did that tell you to get short the morning of 3/21? If you did way to go.

Yeah, when its message is that radical I have to pay attention.
I did catch a tiny little bit of it, not as much as I could have if I was really listening to it SCREAMING BLOODY MURDER literally hours before the big drop

[rhight]

An update of 60min cycle ; I don't know if the cycle bottom is in, because Stochastic hasn't made bull cross yet, but contingent upon the bottom being in, then you can see that the boxes are starting to roll over, as bull turns are happening in the bottom of the blue boxes, and bear turns are at the average of the red.

From a technical perspective, end of quarter, and POMO not with withstanding, IF a higher order (Daily) trend change is taking place, I would expect to see the next bear turn take place in the bottom half of the red box (which extends into Monday), or miss it entirely. My trend indicators (breadth, volume, and MACD) just turned bearish yesterday, but we all know that bear trends have been limited over the past year, the last one being only 10 days long. Which, IF things progress, would point to a bottom of the next Daily cycle at about mid-April.

[Cobra]

the pullback since 10 forms a bull flag, the bias is up.

[Al_Dente]

DAILY CHARTS, short to med term
Many of the RISK ON / RISK OFF Ratios are showing a RISK-OFF profile
#1 Discretionary (aggressive) to Staples (defensive) Ratio is declining. Folks are buying more safety = risk-off
#2 High Beta Stocks to SPY Ratio: when folks start shedding their high beta stocks (considered the “riskiest”) this ratio declines and goes risk-off
#3 Small Cap to Large Cap Ratio: small caps lead healthy bull markets…… not now = risk off
#4 Tech to SPX Ratio: technology leads a healthy bull market….. not now = risk off
But rotation is seen into semiconductors (SOX), traditionally a “leading” sector, now leading bull-spy = risk-on
#5 Rotation also seen in Banks (XLF) which were leading strong (risk-on) but are now easing up just a bit
#6 SPY to Dividend Paying Stocks Ratio: when this ratio goes down folks are buying more boring dividend-paying stocks which are considered less risky.
#7 Same idea with IPO: when folks start bailing out of the hot new IPO stocks, they are eschewing risk = risk off

[Nrsimha]

Fehro, I like to hear your thoughts on GDX please.

GDX weekly, GOLD daily, GOLD monthly.. the charts are similar... GOLD monthly.. not looking good on the candle.. at the moment... still two days to go... weekly GDX holding 20w SMA.... possible invs H&S on GOLD... daily.. holding 200d 50d..... overall ... looks a tad bearish... but good support here... next week will be key... could make a lower low, invs RS..or plunge to new lows....

Thank you for the detailed response sir!

My two cents ----------- > My long term optimization software (based on back-testing and MCMC methods/Gibbs sampling) is starting to flash
a "buy" signal (I am using 15-day periods as candles) --- so, I am going to pile in as soon as the full STO turns up on the daily.

As of today the full STO value is 4.10 < 4.12, the 3-day ma, so its getting close. I'm thinking on more drop (tomorrow?) of GDX down to 22.62
to fill the gap there and then it will turn up. Maybe.

[fehro]

My two cents ----------- > My long term optimization software (based on back-testing and MCMC methods/Gibbs sampling) is starting to flash
a "buy" signal (I am using 15-day periods as candles) --- so, I am going to pile in as soon as the full STO turns up on the daily.

As of today the full STO value is 4.10 < 4.12, the 3-day ma, so its getting close. I'm thinking on more drop (tomorrow?) of GDX down to 22.62
to fill the gap there and then it will turn up. Maybe.

GDX daily... possible support lines.. yellow mid channel.. invs H&S?.. or lower cyan... retest of the broken down trend?.. if not look out below.

[Cobra]

still bull flag but better no more pullback.

[Out of Bounds]

a/d line needs to get worse for bears.

[Cobra]

forget about bull flag. I'm neutral as it's 2nd test of day low, bull to bear 50 to 50. now vol surge so may see rebound here first.

[gappy]

Potus thanks Italy for pasta. http://news.yahoo.com/video/abc-news-pl ... 00361.html (no applause again)

[fehro]

VIX 60m.. popping over it's 50d again....

[fehro]

TLT daily.. volume a tad weak yesterday.. would be nice to see more vol than yesterday, today.

[Nrsimha]

My two cents ----------- > My long term optimization software (based on back-testing and MCMC methods/Gibbs sampling) is starting to flash
a "buy" signal (I am using 15-day periods as candles) --- so, I am going to pile in as soon as the full STO turns up on the daily.

As of today the full STO value is 4.10 < 4.12, the 3-day ma, so its getting close. I'm thinking on more drop (tomorrow?) of GDX down to 22.62
to fill the gap there and then it will turn up. Maybe.

GDX daily... possible support lines.. yellow mid channel.. invs H&S?.. or lower cyan... retest of the broken down trend?.. if not look out below.

If the daily MACD hist starts to turn up at around GDX = 22 (21.8 -ish), I will start nibbling in earnest. With a stop at 20.95

[Heck]

290% undervalued opening calls/puts => Market Up

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

[Nrsimha]

The market is saying something.

Let me translate it for you.


VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE (for Yellen and the new Fed team).

And please .... no personal attacks from crybabies ... I just call 'em as I sees 'em.

[Me XMan]

NNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

The market is saying something.

Let me translate it for you.


VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE (for Yellen and the new Fed team).

And please .... no personal attacks from crybabies ... I just call 'em as I sees 'em.

[Nrsimha]

The market is saying something.

Let me translate it for you.


VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE (for Yellen and the new Fed team).

And please .... no personal attacks from crybabies ... I just call 'em as I sees 'em.

But seriously, my software does flash a (long term/intermediate term) buy signal if the 15-day MA of $SPX were to reach 1870
during the next 5 to 7 trading days. (Earliest that this could reasonably happen would be sometime next week.)

No buy signal yet, though.