04/17/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

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50% chances of Double Top here. Well, don't count on it.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ay-update/

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

[Cobra]

members only update at 9:37 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ay-update/

[johnnywa]

Still watching yesterdays opening black bar?

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. minor possible pink rising bearish wedge... still within a larger wedge

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:04 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/04 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Still watching yesterdays opening black bar?

that one was fulfilled, because the next bar is red.

[johnnywa]

Still watching yesterdays opening black bar?

that one was fulfilled, because the next bar is red.

Thankyou

[Mr. BachNut]

Neutral. No position.
Remaining short was closed yesterday after the opening gap failed to close.

My summation signal is neutral. Acting very unusual these days.
My composite trend signal is down. A lot of damage was repaired yesterday but more follow through is needed to turn this.

The short trade made money but a lot was left on the table. So it goes. The supplemental day trades helped a lot.
My trend trade stop protocol is designed to attempt (with all humility) the following:
stop out for a profit if a move is only two pushes; hold if a move is three pushes; and hold or stop and reload if a move is four pushes.
I am not an elliott waver, but those who are may recognize the above as a zig zag, impulse and double zig zag.
While it may have been OPEX mischief, because my stop was hit, I am treating the odds as having shifted away from a three push downtrend move.
So, either the local low is in or post OPEX we may see another two (or more) pushes to fresh lows. Just probabilities mind you.
If it is the latter, I stand ready to reload my short. If the former (which may be more likely), I'll be looking for a long signal.

Some other work that I do suggests that last Friday's low is really important.
So much so that trade 50 - 100 basis points below it could drive some serious long liquidation and perhaps a more serious correction than folks are anticipating.
In retrospect, it makes sense to me now that this low was defended Tuesday afternoon.
Given how clean, sharp and sure the V rally was, I am moved to consider the possibility of PPT handiwork, particularly given Ukraine. May have just been the Jackals as usual but I wonder...
The bull is not what it was and is more vulnerable than it has been for quite some time. Interesting days ahead I think.

I plan to do nothing today. Other positions are on auto-pilot. So, I'm going to enjoy the day.

[q2model]

Still watching yesterdays opening black bar?

that one was fulfilled, because the next bar is red.

Corba:
Can you explain it a bit more? Can it simply to be seen as there would be a lower price than at 10:00am?

Thanks,

[fehro]

SPX 15m... a tad messy.. mind the trend possible channels, yellow triangle.. should we ease back down .. minor divg forming MacD & RSI.. like 5m

[Cobra]

range, no clear direction. I'm neutral.

[Heck]

Undervalued All and Equity opening long calls/puts at 128% and 183% = Market Up

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

[DellGriffith]

im still bearish. as i charted last nite in yesterday's we only broke the first downtrend line of the correction yesterday. the lower bb breach early in the correction also says we require a lower low. nothing in my composite signal has turned bullish yet -- not even my early warning signal. even something as simple as the MACD on daily SPY has yet to make a bullish cross.

still bearish.

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

[fehro]

INDEX 5m.... possible bearish rising wedge, channel tests.. bullish falling wedge VIX.. a tad messy overall

[fehro]

Index Dailies... SPX holding 20d SMA, NDX, RUT creeping up to 20d SMA ... GLD under 50d SMA

[FlowerGirl]

Don't underestimate the power of yellow diagonal line. Slope of this line suggest Team Green will reach their next step target an hour before the market close today. Don't be surprised if in "Hurrah" they exceed their limit. Even the adults brake the rule some time, they are just the kids

[Ed02]

Mr. M, could you comment if there is a new P-Bar pointing down to ~184.18 right before close yesterday? It is shown on the OX platform, together with that PBar up to ~187.04 near the close of 4/10... Thx.