05/23/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Wait to see if it's a small Double Top here.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/05 ... ay-update/

[gappy]

Vote Cobra. glta

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[merryme]

Think this will impact oil/gas stocks? (from http://blog.nowandfutures.com/index.html)

Huge Montery shale downgrade...

5/22/2014
"The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov) is planning to release a major 96% reserve downgrade to the amount of oil and gas recoverable from the Monterey Shale formation, one of the largest oil/gas reserves in the United States. After several years of intensified exploration the Monterey oil shale play seems to have much less recoverable oil and gas then previously hoped. This is due to multiple factors such as the more complex rippled geology of the shale and over-hyped recovery estimates by investors. By official estimates the Monterey Shale formation makes up 2/3 of the shale reserves in the US and by some estimates 1/3 of all crude reserves in the US. Not a drop in the bucket. Next Month the EIA.gov will be announcing cutting it's estimates for Monterey by 96%. That's a huge blow to the US energy portfolio, trillions of dollars, oil and gas the US might have used for itself or exported. Presently the White House is evaluating making changes to US oil export restrictions so this downgrade may result in changes to US energy policy. As well as have a significant impact on US economy and the economy of California."

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. possible messy H&S ..yellow neckline... or channel, wedge of sorts... mind the open gaps (above and below).. and trend lines

[gappy]

[quote="merryme"]Think this will impact oil/gas stocks? (from http://blog.nowandfutures.com/index.html)

Huge Montery shale downgrade...

Inconsequential imo.

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Strong Uncle Petrobuck = better oil price.

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Watch the USD.

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:02 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/05 ... ay-update/

[gappy]

From our old friend Springheel Jack.

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http://www.channelsandpatterns.com/2014 ... atterns%29

[fehro]

SPX 5m

[flumanchu]

So, who could be relentlessly selling all these (naked) puts?

The $VIX is just being decimated...

.

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. 1897.45 top of gap.. in the gap (bottom 1897.13).. last open gap above.. plenty to the downside fwiw.

[Out of Bounds]

VIX 11.52
52 week low

[Mr. BachNut]

Neutral. No position.
Sold the high P-Bar yesterday. Looking to re-load lower.
Looks like I may have outsmarted myself.
Still hold some VIX.

My summation signal is neutral. Solid new highs could turn it up for the R2K.
My composite trend signal turned up yesterday. Latest in a series of whipsaws.

As I mentioned yesterday, the choppy trendless trading of late has fuzzed up my signaling. Think low signal to noise ratio.
So, I am oriented to more discretionary trading as well as caution and paranoia.
While my signals improved yesterday, I took the opportunity to take a profit and go neutral into the long weekend.
I am sure holding long through the recent drawdown affected my thinking, which is not good.
Trading defensively is not a good place to be and can leak profits.This may turn out to be a dumb idea.
A long weekend is welcome. I continue to consider the campaign open and look to reload, hopefully at a better price.

Volumes will be thin today, and the jackals can probably put the index any where they want.
Maybe the ES gets the 1900 close today.
While VIX is plunging, the June contract is down just a little (13.90).
I am curious to see if we get some change around eumpels signal time.

[fehro]

VIX weekly .. 2013 March lows 11.05

[Al_Dente]

Last lower low on VIX was 14 March 2013 at 11.05
Today’s intraday low was 11.46

[gappy]

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[Cobra]

the pullback probably would be bought.

[fehro]

VIX 15m

[Al_Dente]

523new hoome sales green_png.png (10.41 KiB) Viewed 4028 times

[TumblingDice]

Today's VIX behavior is pretty telling IMHO.

Maybe I'm completely wrong but this smells like the MM's trying to lower premiums for puts by having a coordinated attack on the VIX. The last time the VIX was so pounded and then quickly brought back up again, not in concert with equity market action was May 12th if I'm not mistaken.

The market has barely moved now but the VIX has made a huge roundtrip to 11.46

The last two times this kind of tail on the VIX was seen in this range and touching the lower BB were Sept 20th and Dec 26th 2013. Both times VIX jumped quite a bit. Both times, if I remember correctly, the round trip seemed manufactured since the VIX was moving in a completely uncorrelated fashion to the market.

Based on this, I've picked up some VIX 16 calls for $1.10. High risk high reward play but the VIX is like a coil and it can only be compressed down so much before spring back up, especially at these levels. If we have a new run higher, it is not going to start at this low of a level for the VIX, but it looks like it will start eventually.