05/31/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more accumulation but at very low absolute value, so not necessarily a bullish sign, it's just the distribution is very low.

Smart money shorted a little bit, so nothing bad yet.

I see nothing on AAII. I'd like to see extremely extreme, for now both are far from extreme.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1312&p=163654#p163654

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1318&p=163657#p163657

[Mr. BachNut]

Big Megaphone Little Megaphone.

There was an interesting coincidence yesterday, which is probably insignificant, but I thought it was cool.
The Dow closed at the upper bound of a monthly big bear log scale widening triangle, and the S&P closed at the upper bound of a daily widening triangle (marked in purple).
To consider that these patterns could play out to their bearish implications seems quite unrealistic at the moment. It's a bull market.
However, it seems like some kind of reaction up here is worth watching for.

Some observations:

The Dow tested the upper bound on 12/31/13. This is the second test.
There is also an ascending wedge on the Dow. The lower bound of the wedge and the upper bound of the megaphone are pinching, suggesting resolution soon.
The Money Flow Index has been fading since November, most recently due to falling volumes. Check out how thin the trading was in May.
Trading volumes have also been light for the S&P in late May.
This is the 3rd touch of the upper bound for the SPX daily (3/07, 4/04, 5/30).
Cobra has a thing about 3 pushes.
This pattern conflicts with a number of other bullish aspects in the S&P chart. The trend is up; the sky is blue.
This Dow chart is the last chart I have that presents a case for a secular bear market (1973 style).
If it goes, the secular bear is officially extinct in my book. Ironically, this would make me paranoid.

[DellGriffith]

[tsf]

Here's another cool chart about CYCLE, which probably means squat to a raging bull market.
It is my hope that it will breathe a little more life into a normally lively weekend edition of a wonderful forum.

Source: Thomas Shadburn
If the image is not loaded properly, please use the link instead.
http://stockcharts.com/public/1129702

[Royal Flush]

[quote="Mr. BachNut"]Big Megaphone Little Megaphone.

There was an interesting coincidence yesterday, which is probably insignificant, but I thought it was cool.
The Dow closed at the upper bound of a monthly big bear log scale widening triangle, and the S&P closed at the upper bound of a daily widening triangle (marked in purple).
To consider that these patterns could play out to their bearish implications seems quite unrealistic at the moment. It's a bull market.
However, it seems like some kind of reaction up here is worth watching for.

Some observations:

The Dow tested the upper bound on 12/31/13. This is the second test.
There is also an ascending wedge on the Dow. The lower bound of the wedge and the upper bound of the megaphone are pinching, suggesting resolution soon.
The Money Flow Index has been fading since November, most recently due to falling volumes. Check out how thin the trading was in May.
Trading volumes have also been light for the S&P in late May.
This is the 3rd touch of the upper bound for the SPX daily (3/07, 4/04, 5/30).
Cobra has a thing about 3 pushes.
This pattern conflicts with a number of other bullish aspects in the S&P chart. The trend is up; the sky is blue.
This Dow chart is the last chart I have that presents a case for a secular bear market (1973 style).
If it goes, the secular bear is officially extinct in my book. Ironically, this would make me paranoid.

Nice work Mr. BachNut, There's also a 3 push pattern on the Globex chart over the last 3 trading days with a Trend Channel Over Shoot. This pattern will normally resolve in a bearish reversal but could fail in which case we accelerate to the upside (unlikely).

[tomsky]

One for da bears:

from here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/lelblmUD/

For bulls... nothing, just follow the tape

[Out of Bounds]

Still some movement to higher quality debt while market moves higher.
Implication is that the appetite for risk is diminishing and the market is moving up because buyers are moving away from small equities and into large caps. This is why the Russell is tanking while SPY is up.

I backed this out to a weekly chart to give a longer view of it.

Nasdaq - the rally is not broad based

[fehro]

Nasdaq - the rally is not broad based

AAPL weekly fwiw. Possible resistance hit on Friday's high.

[fehro]

SPX daily

[fehro]

QQQ daily