11/21/2014 Live Update

[MrMiyagi]

!!! POWER HOUR !!!

[fehro]

SPX possible wedge into the close.. for a gap on Monday

[DellGriffith]

In effect, it amplifies the economic cycle, but it doesn't actually do anything long term.

I would have to disagree. The wider the variance from the mean becomes (cyclical booms and busts in this case) the larger the standard deviation is(the secular crashes and the manias). By exaggerating the smaller sine waves, we create much larger interruptions.

Then you agree. The market would have risen over the past several decades whether we had activist central banking or not. It doesn't really do anything.

[ballatines]

expecting a big red reversal bar on daily.. anyone?

[cletus]

Up friday is in the bag. Bears are going to have to wait for a trend change at least till next Friday. Not surprising given the holiday.

[cletus]

Watch for a move in the euro into year-end. Things are lined up but today raised some questions about how well this will work this year.

[fehro]

Watch for a move in the euro into year-end. Things are lined up but today raised some questions about how well this will work this year.

not so sure…. near support… breaks it won't be pretty. @1.24ish (EOD chart)

….UKIP, which favors immediate withdrawal from the European Union. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/ ... D420141120

[Tutti]

In effect, it amplifies the economic cycle, but it doesn't actually do anything long term.

I would have to disagree. The wider the variance from the mean becomes (cyclical booms and busts in this case) the larger the standard deviation is(the secular crashes and the manias). By exaggerating the smaller sine waves, we create much larger interruptions.

Then you agree. The market would have risen over the past several decades whether we had activist central banking or not. It doesn't really do anything.

Let me clarify. Yes we would go higher (market has a natural positive bias) we will just do so in a more volatile manner. I agree that we would rise without activist central bankers but not to the extent, the volatility or velocity we will with them. My sole disagreement with the prior statement is only that the action of activist central bankers, "...doesn't actually do anything long term," not that it would have risen without them. My contention is that their actions exaggerate, in a very unhealthy manner, the broad swings of the market and long term create destabilizing mean reversion.

PS It's Friday and 0'Scotch thirty. Time to call it quits. Gentleman, enjoy your weekend.

[Cobra]

my guess is this is just 100% mm not double bottom. if 100% mm then the pullback isn't over yet.

[MrMiyagi]

"WE'RE NEVER EVER GOING DOWN AGAIN!!!"

[Mr. BachNut]

Speaking of risk management, there is a fascinating interview with Hugh Hendry circulating at the moment.

http://moneyweek.com/hugh-hendry-interview-part-1/

Great video, thanks. One can't help but think that this feedback loop has poisoned a lot of PMs. The ones that have completely dropped their defense at some point (who knows when) will remember that good defense wins games. I I wonder if in 1999 or 1987 money managers felt the same way (for different reasons obviously) right before they got carried out feet first...

I remember 1999 real well. Had to be long with a complete disregard for fundamentals.
Value investors looked like idiots.
There was plenty of time to get out at the end.
A lot of people did, and a lot of other people didn't.
Folks get stuck in their beliefs or freeze when things start unraveling.

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:48 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/11 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Monday has been mostly bear friendly recently. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Junior Buffett]

Speaking of risk management, there is a fascinating interview with Hugh Hendry circulating at the moment.

http://moneyweek.com/hugh-hendry-interview-part-1/

Great video, thanks. One can't help but think that this feedback loop has poisoned a lot of PMs. The ones that have completely dropped their defense at some point (who knows when) will remember that good defense wins games. I I wonder if in 1999 or 1987 money managers felt the same way (for different reasons obviously) right before they got carried out feet first...

I remember 1999 real well. Had to be long with a complete disregard for fundamentals.
Value investors looked like idiots.
There was plenty of time to get out at the end.
A lot of people did, and a lot of other people didn't.
Folks get stuck in their beliefs or freeze when things start unraveling.

A Traders Mind.jpg

I am at " it can't go higher, this is terribly overdone!", I guess based on your chart, we have still decent upside left...LOL

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr.Bachnut seems to prefer watching $NYMO
uempel seems to prefer watching $BPNYA, etc

Newbie question: any pros and cons between the above indicators as to when one set may be preferrable to the other?

Thanks in advance for any insights anyone may wish to provide.

I watch bullish percentages very closely too. Monitor them every day as well as a bunch of other stuff.
They are a key part of my trend model.

NYMO and related gauges of advance declines are I think more sensitive and faster moving than bullish percentage.
So, if a bunch of stocks decline but only by a little, NYMO may go down a bunch while bullish percent doesn't change.
Thus, you are more likely to have divergences against price with NYMO than bullish percent.
Divergences are helpful as they can lead price providing an early warning, but they are also more likely to present false positives and negatives.
Bullish percentage is more of a sure thing but it is more likely to rise and fall contemporaneously with price. So, perhaps more confirming price rather than leading.

[tsf]

Thank you very much, Mr.BachNut ! It's very kind of you.

Mr.Bachnut seems to prefer watching $NYMO
uempel seems to prefer watching $BPNYA, etc

Newbie question: any pros and cons between the above indicators as to when one set may be preferrable to the other?

Thanks in advance for any insights anyone may wish to provide.

I watch bullish percentages very closely too. Monitor them every day as well as a bunch of other stuff.
They are a key part of my trend model.

NYMO and related gauges of advance declines are I think more sensitive and faster moving than bullish percentage.
So, if a bunch of stocks decline but only by a little, NYMO may go down a bunch while bullish percent doesn't change.
Thus, you are more likely to have divergences against price with NYMO than bullish percent.
Divergences are helpful as they can lead price providing an early warning, but they are also more likely to present false positives and negatives.
Bullish percentage is more of a sure thing but it is more likely to rise and fall contemporaneously with price. So, perhaps more confirming price rather than leading.

[pete]

+1

This passage is extremely helpful.

Thank you very much, Mr.BachNut ! It's very kind of you.

Mr.Bachnut seems to prefer watching $NYMO
uempel seems to prefer watching $BPNYA, etc

Newbie question: any pros and cons between the above indicators as to when one set may be preferrable to the other?

Thanks in advance for any insights anyone may wish to provide.

I watch bullish percentages very closely too. Monitor them every day as well as a bunch of other stuff.
They are a key part of my trend model.

NYMO and related gauges of advance declines are I think more sensitive and faster moving than bullish percentage.
So, if a bunch of stocks decline but only by a little, NYMO may go down a bunch while bullish percent doesn't change.
Thus, you are more likely to have divergences against price with NYMO than bullish percent.
Divergences are helpful as they can lead price providing an early warning, but they are also more likely to present false positives and negatives.
Bullish percentage is more of a sure thing but it is more likely to rise and fall contemporaneously with price. So, perhaps more confirming price rather than leading.

[wayne0708]

All up day today. $spy $qqq $iwm $gld $tlt $uup