12/16/2014 Live Update

[fehro]

VIX daily/weekly fwiw.

[fehro]

SPX.. didn't quite fill gap.. but possible hammer on the 60m

[Cobra]

morning hourly hollow red.

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:07 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

[L_T]

So Russia raises rates to 17%. Anyone going to run out to buy their govt. bonds?

[merryme]

Watching gold and platinum spread...very interesting...gold has traded higher than platinum this morning (unusual)...the battle is on...when gold trades higher than platinum that means that fear is present.

[fehro]

SPX.. gap fill. now.. green bullish falling wedge?.. or pink expanding triangle?..

[daytradingES]

looking for up day
LOD in place (I think)

[grandeG]

Santa hitting the buy button or the Grinch?

[daytradingES]

Santa hitting the buy button or the Grinch?

The Grinch = Fed manipulation

[Mr. BachNut]

I have nothing new to add to prior remarks. Prior trends still unfolding.

Other random thoughts this morning:

There is an old saw (that regrettably dates me) that goes:
If Santa fails to call, the bears will roam on Broad and Wall.
Let's see what happens. Sometimes the Santa rally comes a little late.

Concerning the crazy VIX, today is the last trading day for the December contract with expiration at the open tomorrow.
So, I am intrigued by the possibility that the contract could make a move to those P Bar highs late today or tomorrow morning.
I have no idea if this will happen or why or what would make it happen. It is just that expiration is a market clearing moment.
Perhaps the new contract goes to crazy VIX highs after expiration. I don't know.

Even though we have had quite a move, it does not feel like we have had capitulation.
Capitulation may not happen. Seasonality, OPEX and BTD mentality may get bulls moving.
However, there is a pain point that could trigger managers to protect performance into year-end.
Wonder where that point is...

A lot of folks have gotten short. A fair chunk of those could elect to close out ahead of the Fed.

My currency tell flirted with lower support over night. Perhaps that will be the low for the move.
If that support were to break though, we might witness a notable unwind in the currency carry trade market.
The liquidity dynamics of such would likely flow over to equities.
Just a thought. The support was and I think will be well defended. May need an event to break it.

If you are catching my drift, the sense is that we are in an area where a supported low could/should get set but there is also some edgy vulnerability lurking as well.

[fehro]

SPX daily.. RSI pretty oversold.. over the 50d.. maybe red line for Santa.. otherwise.. 200d/lower cyan and.. if the grinch shows up and stays till new years… lower pink

[fehro]

SPX a tad messy .. few patterns in there.. fwiw

[Tutti]

SPX daily.. RSI pretty oversold.. over the 50d.. maybe red line for Santa.. otherwise.. 200d/lower cyan and.. if the grinch shows up and stays till new years… lower pink

///Sorry don't know how to make these smaller...
There is oversold and there is OVERSOLD. We are getting closer to OVERSOLD. We should at least bounce for a day to relieve a bit of pressure, but if oil can't stabilize I don't think it will matter.

StocksAbove2050200EMA_16DEC14.tiff (157.39 KiB) Viewed 3867 times

McClellanOsc_16DEC14.tiff (161.31 KiB) Viewed 3867 times

[Cobra]

exceeded the mini rebound target but it took longer time than the previous one, so I'm not sure how far this rebound can go.

[Mr. BachNut]

If TRIN closes below .8, odds jump that some kind of price low is in.
Could be temporary low or durable low.
If close above, nevermind...

[FlowerGirl]

NUGT will be my next pray...
I traded long NUGT AH that I exited this AM...something I won't advertise

Go Baby...

[CaStorm]

morning hourly hollow red.

Does hourly hollow red still work?

[fehro]

SPX over 50d

[ballatines]

SPY p-bar 202.4 target to hit