03/23/2015 Live Update

[fehro]

hmmm <20d.. 50d closing in

[Al_Dente]

End-of-Quarter is 6 trading days away (EOQ = 3/31). It’s time for quarterly rebalancing.
Managed portfolios that are mandated to maintain a fixed percentage of stocks/bonds (typically 65/35 but it varies) will need to meet their contractual obligations. Depending on which benchmark they use (10yr or 30yr treasuries) the net effect should be minimal, as the performance differential between stocks/bonds is minimal this quarter (unless something radical happens in the next six trading days).

[Out of Bounds]

Watch your head.

[Daniel]

Watch your head.

Which head.

[K447]

Watch your head.

?

[Out of Bounds]

[Out of Bounds]

Russell just hit new HOD! %$%# it.

[Cobra]

probably this is to test day high.

[Trades with cats]

Three hours later the small caps manage to climb back to slightly above the opening high, just in time for the London close. When the European money stops maybe those fund rebalancers will throw a few nickles this way.

My momentum indicators (DI and %R) are saying trendless market (DI) with a slight up bias (%R). Only thing working today is Cobra's 20 EMA line, which isn't working on the ES.

[Daniel]

Watch your head.

Which head.

--Sectors and sub-markets are all over the map today. Retailers, smallcaps very strong, biotechs and transports quite weak...

[essessme]

back under the blue upper fork would be the first sign of weakness and open a retest of the march low...but tick suggests to anticipate a close at the high for the day.

[Al_Dente]

At least for now, the back-test of that FOMC high was successful (higher low)
Important that bulls hold that line, no more back-testing, must continue up from here… to new highs and beyond……
This is 4 days, showing the fomc high

[Junior Buffett]

Let's just look at what's happening NOW - and we see that SPX is trying to ride the MA 390 (1 min chart) - not very successfully. As long as SPX is not showing more strength we may assume that SPX won't make it back into the black channel and that this is a kiss. But it's a 51/49 bet and tricky to trade

Thanks bud!

[fehro]

hmmm again.. TRAN new LOD -150 points -1.63%

[Daniel]

SMH, XLI fresh LOD

[uempel]

I've got a good signal for DAX in the next few minutes - might have some implications for SPX too...

Presumably the DAX move will be bullish

Chetas, the DAX move was +0.3%/30 points, the SPX move was -0.1%/2 handles. No obvious correlation But it does show something else: trading DAX (also on an intraday basis) is very rewarding. Volatility is approx 1.6 times that of SPX.

I don't trade rut/iwm or mid/mdy - but apparently these two indices show much better volatility than spx/spy/es

[Daniel]

XLE serious RS dropoff intraday, fresh LOD; EEM nearing its HOD

[uempel]

Bullish Percentages look good and the market doesn't signal that it's not going to move higher here: BPNYA, BPCOMPQ and BPSPX are all a bit higher and it's very unlikely the market can do otherwise.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPENER|B|0

And if we look at the heavyweights of SPX the picture looks quite good too. Only the financials JPM and WFC are weak (which suggests no given rate rise in June ...).

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... PFE,ge|B|0

[Daniel]

Naz and R2k vix both holding at or near their lowest levels of the day... bullish for the equiv. equity indexes.

[uempel]

Picture is improving:

60 min SPX still stuck beneath the black channel

1 min SPX above the MA 390